JRL NEWSWATCH: “A Shift in Ukrainian Strategy” – Geopolitical Futures/ George Friedman

Map of Ukraine, Including Crimea, and Neighbors, Including Russia

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“… [After] Zelenskyy announced … that he replaced his defense minister … a group of senior U.S. generals met with Ukrainian generals on the border with Poland …. Ukraine’s strategy has been brilliant, especially in the early stages …. distribut[ing] its force into small units … [with] a high degree of freedom. … [K]nowledge and familiarity with the terrain … enabled small teams to locate and engage Russian forces and then disappear like phantoms. … [T]he Russian army [then] … spent a year trying to capture cities rather than destroying the Ukrainian army. … [G]iven the way the Wagner Group carried the campaign out, the subjugation of the cities took too long, and [any] psychological effects … quickly dissipated. … Wagner now sidelined, the Russian General Staff is now … reverting to its earlier strategy … massing forces … to force the Ukrainian army to fight …. U.S. generals [now] believe[] … the time for diffused defense against massed Russian forces is over. … [W]ith minimal knowledge of the situation on the ground, I think that a shift in the approach to the battle is needed. And I would guess the new defense minister does too. …”

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A Shift in Ukrainian Strategy



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