Interfax: Ulyukayev expects ‘statistically significant’ improvement in Q4 economic indicators

MOSCOW. Oct 31 (Interfax) – Economic Development Minister Alexei Ulyukayev expects to see “statistically significant” improvement in Russia’s fourth quarter macroeconomic performance.

“There are signs of improvement, in terms of the investment climate, industrial output and inventories,” he said.

“It seems to me that we are leaving the lowest zone, where we have been since the fourth quarter of 2012, where we were mainly in the second and third quarters this year. It seems to me that there will be statistically significant improvement in industrial output, investment and GDP growth,” Ulyukayev told journalists in Moscow on Thursday when asked if he expected the economy to improve in the fourth quarter.

Ulyukayev said the low rates of growth this year were due to slowing consumer demand, especially investment demand, and, to a lesser extent, the export situation.

He said it would be “difficult” to make a prediction about exports in the fourth quarter, since “there is no unanimity and it depends on global demand.” Ulyukayev said he hoped the situation would substantially improve next year, to provide “a not very powerful, but nonetheless a driver of growth.”

As for the GDP growth forecast for 2013, Ulyukayev said “for now we are not changing the forecast (of 1.8%), having the understanding that risks of course exist.”

The Economic Development Ministry estimates the GDP growth was 1.3% through the first nine months of the year, including 1.2% in the third quarter.