JRL NEWSWATCH: “Why We Should Not Bet on a Peaceful Russia” – Foreign Policy
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“The idea that a deal with Moscow will bring peace in Ukraine is based on very flimsy assumptions.”
“… Those calling for an immediate negotiated settlement are … making an extremely risky bet. History, comparison, and much of theory isn’t on their side. … [T]hey are advising Ukraine to put its survival on the line [] in exchange for the flimsy hope that Russia will behave exactly as one tiny set of academics expect it to, according to their theory. That doesn’t guarantee that they are wrong, but the overwhelming evidence from historical precedent, regime behavior, national ideology, and international relations theory suggests that no durable negotiated peace is on offer. … [C]ountries are dependent on their own historical experiences, not theoretical ruminations. Russia’s neighbors generally fear and mistrust Russia, with good cause. Ukraine, in particular, has every reason … to be skeptical about Russian intentions and promises of peacefulness. Policymakers and analysts in the West may want to ask themselves whether they’d be as willing to give Moscow the benefit of a doubt if Russia were their own neighbor, occupier, and historical overlord — and if their bets on the future concerned their very own existence.”