JRL NEWSWATCH: “The third line: How the Pentagon assesses Ukraine’s progress; A rare interview with America’s Defence Intelligence Agency” – The Economist
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“… [DIA Director Trent] Maul … notes that Sergei Surovikin, the Russian general who built [Russia’s] defensive lines [in Ukraine], and Yevgeny Prigozhin, whose Wagner Group mercenaries achieved Russia’s most tangible gains of the past year, are both off the battlefield — the former sacked and the latter dead …. [] Maul … says … Ukraine’s recent successes are ‘significant’ and give its forces a ‘realistic possibility’ — intel-speak for 40-50% probability — of breaking … remaining Russian lines by the end of the year. … [H]e warns that limited ammunition and worsening weather will make this ‘very difficult.’ … Even without a breakthrough this year, the DIA is moderately confident that if Ukraine can widen the salient around Robotyne, hold its positions and keep ammo flowing in, it will be well placed for a fresh push in 2024. …”