JRL NEWSWATCH: “America’s Withdrawal From Afghanistan Did Not Spur Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine” – Foreign Affairs/ Peter Schroeder
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“The Persistent Myth That Could Weaken U.S. Deterrence”
“… After nearly 20 years of fighting in the country, Washington [in August 2021] bumbled its way through a [chaotic and] disorderly exit [from Afghanistan] … caught off guard by the rapid collapse of the Afghan security forces and seem[ingly] unprepared to evacuate American citizens or Afghan partners. … Biden’s handling of the pullout gave his administration a black eye that never fully healed. When the scale of the calamity became apparent at the end of August 2021, Biden’s approval ratings fell from 54 to 46 percent … [T]hey still have not recovered. … [S]ome of Biden’s critics have … argued that the U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan helped inspire … Putin’s decision to launch his 2022 full-scale attack on Ukraine. … [T]he precise timing of Putin’s decision to invade Ukraine strongly suggests that his choice was not a reaction to his subsequent perception that the United States showed weakness in Afghanistan. … [I]t appears to have been a strategic calculation (or miscalculation) based on a fear that Russia’s position was weakening. After April 2021, Putin would reasonably have concluded that Biden would never be willing to reach an agreement with him on Ukraine that sufficiently addressed his interests. … [G]iven that the United States and its European allies were increasing their support for Ukraine’s defense, intelligence, cyber, and security capabilities, Putin may have calculated that he needed to invade while he still could. …”