The cycle of violence in Ukraine makes another revolution towards disaster

(Business New Europe – bne.eu – May 6, 2014) Nearly two dozen people were killed in intense fighting in the eastern Ukraine town of Slavyansk on May 5. This situation spiralling out of control as key of government attempts to retake control of the towns in eastern Ukraine ahead of presidential election slated on May 25.

The fighting was heaviest in Slavyansk, defended by an estimated 800 pro-Russian supporters using heavy weapons according to reports.

The Ukraine’s Interior Ministry said four Ukrainian soldiers were killed and another 30 injured during the fighting. Separately a rebel told Interfax that more than 20 people have been killed from the pro-Russian protesters protecting the town.

RT correspondent Paula Slier in Slavyansk also reported that one woman was killed by sniper fire. “Her name was Irina, 30 years old, she was standing on balcony and shot by sniper. Family shocked and sobbing,” Slier tweeted after interviewing her husband and relatives. “She just came out to the balcony to have a look.” Slier already tweeted unconfirmed reports that said a small girl was hit by a stray bullet during the fighting in Slavyansk and killed.

Ukrainian army and Interior Ministry troops fully encircled the city with pro-Russian forces holding the centre. Ukrainian Interior Minister Arsen Avakov confirmed that government forces took a television tower in the southern suburb of Andreyevka and have surrounded the town of 140,000 inhabitants.

Slavyansk is one of half a dozen towns in eastern Ukraine that are becoming the scene of heavy fighting between Ukraine’s military and pro-Russian separatists. The Slavyansk attack is the latest in a string of “Anti-terrorist operations” (ATOs) launched by the Kyiv government on April 15.

Elsewhere Ukrainian officials claimed government forces had taken control of almost all of Kramatorsk, another disputed city in eastern Ukraine, that has been under the control of pro-Russian demonstrators.

And Ukraine’s defence ministry confirmed that pro-Russian forces using a heavy calibre machine gun shot down another M-24 helicopter. The helicopter crashed into a nearby river, but the pilots escaped without injury, according to posting on the Defence Ministry’s Facebook page. At least two helicopters were shot down a day earlier, using, what appears to be, sophisticated surface-to-air missiles.

Acting President Oleksandr Turchynov said Russia “is at war” with his country and despite the hyperbole it is increasingly looking that way. Carnegie analyst Dmitri Trenin warned that Ukraine, “is fast acquiring a civil war mentality,” in a note posted on the Institute’s website on Monday.

One of the more worrying aspects of the unfolding events is the growing number of reports of separatist forces using increasingly sophisticated weaponry. The helicopters appear to have been shot down by RPG surface to air rockets on Sunday and yesterday rebel forces were using heavy calibre machine guns and mortars. These weapons are military grade and extremely difficult for civilian militias to get hold of on their own.

“Kyiv’s objective is clear: it needs to demonstrate that it controls the territory, in order to ensure the legality of the vote. Helping install a fully legitimate authority in Ukraine is also a key objective of the United States and the Europeans. There is little doubt that the May 25 poll will be held. A new president, however, will hardly inaugurate stability,” said Trenin in a note on the institutes website.

Kyiv runs the risk of achieving the exact opposite; the military operations have undermined what little, if any, faith the population in eastern Ukraine had in the interim Kyiv government. The mounting death toll will only drive a cycle of anger and revenge. Trenin warns unless the central government regains control and imposes stability the danger is that the fighting will engender a new Maidan, but this time in the East.

For its part the Kremlin also looks less sure of itself. While there is little doubt that Russia has supplied the pro-Russian forces with arms and support the Kremlin itself admits that is losing control of the situation.

After the tragic events in Odessa at the weekend, where over 40 pro-Russian protestors died in a blaze, it will be “factually impossible” for Russia and any other country to persuade people in the southeast of Ukraine to lay down arms, Russian president’s press secretary Dmitry Peskov told journalists.

“From now on, Russia has factually lost its influence on these people, because it will be impossible to persuade them to lay down arms against the background of a direct threat to their life,” he said.

Some in the west are also becoming alarmed. On May 3 German Foreign Minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier called for renewed talks in Geneva to re-start the process of de-escalation. However, by May 5 there was no reaction from either the Kyiv government or Washington. Trenin added his voice to the growing number of commentators, who are drawing parallels with the beginning of the Yugoslavian Civil War.

The escalating violence on May 5 bode ill for the future. German Chancellor Angela Merkel and US President Barack Obama drew a line in the sand this week saying that if Russia interfered with the presidential election slated for May 25 the West would escalate sanctions and inflicts real economic pain in Russia. However as the violence spreads through eastern Ukraine the chances for a legitimate votes are increasingly slim. Russia will get the blame for the failure of the presidential vote, will suffer the tougher sanction regime, and is bound to retaliate in kind.

Peskov has already pointed to the violence as proof that proceeding with the vote planned for May 25 is “absurd.”

Despite the increasing hysterical rhetoric on both sides at government level the people on both sides are clearly unhappy with the way things are unfolding. In Odessa onlookers to the fire of the House of Unions that killed nearly 40 pro-Russian demonstrators rushed to save those inside by erecting scaffolding outside the building. Likewise on May 5 thousands of Muscovites assembled under the Kremlin walls to commemorate those killed in Friday’s Odessa blaze.