Rising risk of escalation as battle for Donetsk is nearing
(Business New Europe – bne.ru – Teneo Intelligence – August 7, 2014) Ukrainian forces have stepped up their campaign to retake the cities of Luhansk and Donetsk from separatists; Russia will likely respond with increased efforts to help the pro-Russian militias to stay in control. Yet, the new tactics will likely fall short of direct military invasion and instead take the form of increased operational support for the separatists. As a result, an escalation of the situation in eastern Ukraine is likely in the coming days.
The key battle appears to be the siege of Donetsk Ð the main stronghold of the separatists Ð, which has been surrounded by Kiev forces. Similar tactics as employed in the battle for Slavyansk earlier this summer can be expected. In such a scenario, the army would only enter the city after wearing down the defenders through the siege, with an estimated timeline of two to three weeks.
As highlighted in our 30 July Quick Take UKRAINE: Rebels lose ground, but quick resolution of the crisis remains unlikely, Russia’s interest is to help the separatists to stay in control of their currently held territories. While at the very least, Moscow will continue to supply insurgents in eastern Ukraine with armaments and volunteer support, adjustments to bring the tactics in line with developments on the ground are likely. The recent Russian military build-up on the border and the apparent involvement of Russian artillery in the shelling of Ukrainian positions across the border has prevented Ukrainian forces from cutting separatist supply routes from Russia and has led to a diversion of Kiev forces away from the key operations in Donetsk and Luhansk. Ongoing air force exercises in Russia’s western and central military districts provide added intimidation of the Ukrainian army. Incursions into the Ukrainian airspace cannot be ruled out.
Yet, overall, Russia will likely refrain from deploying a ground invasion. The Kremlin’s interest in destabilization and subsequent federalisation of Ukraine over annexation of a portion of its mainland territory has not changed. The alternative plan tentatively put forward by various Russian officials over the past couple of days was launching a humanitarian intervention, which would allow Russia to place its personnel on the ground in eastern Ukraine. While Moscow appears to be preparing conditions for such an operation, it would likely provoke a further expansion of international sanctions. Therefore, the Kremlin will most probably only consider it if increased operational support of the separatists fails to hamper Ukrainian forces’ advances in the coming days.
