Central Bank in baseline scenario expecting oil price at around $50 per barrel in next 3 years

MOSCOW. Sept 11 (Interfax) – The Central Bank of Russia updated the forecast that was made earlier on the average annual price for oil and now is considering it being close to $50 a barrel in the next three years as the baseline scenario.

“Going forward, the economic situation will depend on the global energy prices and the economy’s ability to adjust to external shocks,” the Central Bank said.

At the end of July, the Central Bank said that the scenario of oil prices remaining at levels no higher than $60 per barrel had become more likely.

In June the Central Bank announced several scenarios of Russia’s economic development, the main distinction of which are the assumptions concerning the movement of oil prices. The first scenario envisaged the gradual growth of prices for Urals oil to $80 a barrel in 2018. The second scenario expected oil prices at about $60 a barrel during 2015-2018. Both of these scenarios were consider equally likely by the Central Bank.

In the stress scenario, the decline of oil prices to $40 per barrel and prices staying at this level in the medium term is envisaged.