Ruble will not change dramatically in next three-four years – Kudrin

(Interfax – STRELNA, September 4, 2013) Former Russian Finance Minister Alexei Kudrin, who currently chairs the Committee on Civil Initiatives, does not anticipate any serious changes to the ruble’s real exchange rate in the next three to four years.

“I don’t expect any major changes in the fate of the ruble. If you look at the official forecast, many might be surprised to see that we have an annual 1-ruble reduction in the exchange rate,” Kudrin said at a Wednesday briefing ahead of the G20 Summit.

“Perhaps at some stages this depreciation will occur more rapidly, instigated by a number of events; for example, the Federal Reserve’s abandonment of support measures. That somewhat increases the outflow, that might spur it,” he said.

Several factors are causing the ruble to depreciate, particularly “a reduction in export potential, metal prices, particularly non-ferrous metals,” Kudrin said.

“Higher growth in imports in comparison with exports is also an element that is still present. Lower (economic) growth rates also encourage depreciation,” the former finance minister said.

“There were several factors of a global character, general market conditions like metal prices, of a global cycle character, which the Federal Reserve is trying to take into consideration by lowering its influence, and our internal things, they overlap, so the exchange rate has moved faster,” Kudrin said.

However, in general Kudrin does not think there will be any serious changes or a different trend in comparison with what the ruble is experiencing now within three to four years.

“There will be a nominal slight depreciation,” he said. “In real terms it won’t be such a large depreciation, so I don’t see any major risks,” Kudrin concluded.