JRL NEWSWATCH: “Analysis: A New Phase of the War, March 29th, 2024” – Mikael Valtersson: Twitter

Headlines, JRL NewsBlog, Military, Ukraine, Russo-Ukrainian War
Map of Ukraine, Including Crimea, and Neighbors, Including Russia

“… [Past] Russian attacks towards the energy network in Ukraine … focused on the power distribution system and damages [had] been easy to repair quickly. This new campaign is … much more serious … since its focus is [on] power production facilities … [that] might take years to repair or replace. Why has Russia shifted its focus? … [In the past] Russia didn’t want to destroy … critical infrastructure in Ukraine, because they hoped to minimise reconstruction costs and Russia also still hoped that Ukraine would get a change of regime that would lead to Ukraine once again becoming allied to Russia. …. The second reason Russia didn’t attack the critical infrastructure was that Ukraine still had a strong Air Defence (AD) network and Russia had a limited number of weapon systems …. Now Ukraine has very limited AD resources and Russia has drastically increased weapons production. Russia seems to have come to the conclusion that it’s more important to actually defeat Ukraine than to preserve critical infrastructure for a[n] unlikely future allied Ukraine. …. Since Russian gloves are off regarding critical infrastructure, we can assume that Russia now take the war very seriously. They didn’t start doing it until the Autumn of 2022. But after the loss of western Kherson oblast and eastern Kharkov oblast Russia began a step by step increase transforming into a war economy and mindset. …”

 

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