What the Crimea crisis will do to US-Russia relations

(Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists – thebulletin.org – Pavel Podvig – March 27, 2014)

A physicist trained at the Moscow Institute of Physics and Technology, Podvig works on the Russian nuclear arsenal, US-Russian relations, and nonproliferation. …

Over the years it has become cliché for commentators on US-Ru ssian affairs to observe that the relationship between the two countries has hit its lowest point since the end of the Cold War. Unfortunately, these observations more often than not reflected reality, as despite brief peaks and slightly longer plateaus, relations sank to ever-lower levels with each new crisis. The current one, which reached a flashpoint when Russia annexed Crimea on March 18, may strain ties between Moscow and Washington beyond the breaking point. While one element of the relationship-cooperation on arms control-has survived so far, retreats in other areas are likely to cut much deeper. Even if the situation does not deteriorate further, bringing basic trust and confidence back to relations between Russia and the West will take a very long time.

The problem this time is not the severity of the crisis, but rather the threat it poses to the very fabric of cooperation between Russia and the West. Until now, various collaborative programs not only survived th e upheavals, but also provided a safety net of interconnectivity and mutual interests that dampened the impact of the crises. …

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