Interfax: U.S. interference in Syria fraught with geopolitical catastrophe – military expert

(Interfax – MOSCOW, August 26, 2013) The possible military interference of the United States and its allies in Syria will have catastrophic consequences for the situation at Middle East, military expert, member of the Russian Federation Council Foreign Affairs Committee Igor Morozov said.

“The military interference of the U.S. and its allies in Syria will lead to a geopolitical explosion in entire Middle East and the whole world will experience the consequences of this. This interference will not bring victory either to the U.S. or its allies and will have the gravest humanitarian consequences for the Syrian people and entire Middle East,” Morozov told Interfax on Monday.

“The fall of Assad’s regime will start considerable situation aggravation and will lead to serious ethnic and confessional conflicts in border countries, in particular in Lebanon and Jordan,” Morozov said. “At that, a real possibility of foreign invasion in Iran emerges,” he said.

Official Tehran will not remain aside in case of military action on Syria because it considers Syria its strategic ally, Morozov said.

“Iran has already sent a warning to the U.S. that it will not remain aside in case of military invasion in Syria,” the official said.

If the U.S. opts for military escalation regarding Syria, the international community can forget about any attempts to take the Iranian nuclear problem under control, Morozov said. “This issue will simply be off the agenda,” he said.

In case of military operation against Syria, the status quo formed at the Syrian-Israeli border will be broken, which is not in line with Israel’s interests because its security will be jeopardized, the official said.

“There is and will be no guarantee of quick victory in Syria for the U.S. and its allies. This will be pure gamble. Political expenses of the operation will be inexcusably high for the U.S., whose forces have already got stuck in Iraq and Afghanistan. Representatives of the military leadership warn that the military invasion in Syria will require $1 billion a month from the U.S. budget,” Morozov said.

Even such large-scale action will fail to decrease violence in Syria or to ensure turnaround in the opposition’s favor, the official said. “The Syrian opposition is uncoordinated forces and the danger, that Islamic radicals will come to power in case of Assad’s overturn, is high,” he said.

The U.S. repeats the Libyan and Iraqi scenarios with Syria, Morozov said.

“Iraq was invaded under strained pretext that Saddam Hussein’s regime had weapons of mass destruction, however no one has given proof of their existence so far. Chaos and never-ending terrorist attacks, organized by various extremists and radicals, reign in this country today. The same is happening in Libya – when the U.S. and its allies have overthrown Gaddafi’s regime, having left ruin and civil war behind, weapons sprawled from this country throughout the region and these weapons fire today in a number of North African countries and Mali,” Morozov said.

In case of military invasion in Syria, the world will get “hot Middle East with unmanageable processes at the state level,” he said.

“As a result, weapons will sprawl further throughout the region and international terrorism and extremism will expand. This situation will result very poorly for the EU countries and the U.S. itself and the invasion in Syria will be one of the biggest political mistakes with far-reaching explosive consequences,” Morozov said.

The U.S. and its allies will become very vulnerable to terrorist attacks amid such situation development, he said.

“Then, it could happen that the explosions organized by Al-Qaeda on September 11 will seem as slight stretch to the U.S. The U.S. virtually pumps a military crisis, not realizing grave consequences,” Morozov said.

“This entire situation looms that radical Islamists will come to power, extremism tension outbreaks will emerge and full-scale civil wars, which will outflow national borders, will erupt. As a result, the influence of radical Islam will grow out of proportion and this poses threat to Russia,” he said.