“The KGB agent turned warlord president has shaped Russia with resentment and force. As Donald Trump threatens to abandon NATO allies if he returns to the White House, Putin’s poised to take advantage.” “… Putin is attempting to strike his own decisive blow against the U.S. and Europe to reshape [the] global order to Russia’s advantage … backed by military […]
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“… IMF First Deputy Managing Director Gita Gopinath … said decisions about what to do with [Russian] assets rested solely with countries holding them. She declined to offer an opinion on how they should be used. Gopinath said the IMF would evaluate the impact of any decisions … but the IMF would not be involved in the decisions. … [S]he […]
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“Skepticism remains high about the Russian leader’s intentions after he told Tucker Carlson that the war in Ukraine could be settled with a peace deal.” “The Biden administration dismissed on Friday a call by … Putin … for negotiations to end the war in Ukraine, showing no sign that flagging political support for American military aid to Kyiv had made […]
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“… [V]acillating among pedantic, sarcastic and aggrieved, Putin spent the first uninterrupted half-hour on his tired claims that Ukrainians are not a nation, that they’re neo-Nazis, persecute Russians, and are tools of the West. He then turned to … all the ways in which the United States has humiliated, betrayed and insulted Russia, and how Ukraine and … [the] C.I.A. […]
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“The dismissal of Valery Zaluzhny is a crucial new phase in the war. Unfortunately, President Zelensky risks getting it wrong.” “The most important question is whether [] Zelensky can … refocus his vision for the war. … [H]e is still publicly clinging to his promise that Ukraine will take back every inch of soil occupied by Russian forces …. [U]nless […]
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“…Hosted by Russia Matters — a project at the HKS Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs that publishes analysis on U.S.-Russia relations — [an] event [featuring Fiona Hill ] was moderated by former HKS Dean Graham T. Allison ’62 and former Under Secretary of State for Global Affairs Paula J. Dobriansky. Hill, the former senior director on Russia and […]
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“… Putin spent the first 30 minutes of his two-hour interview with … Tucker Carlson giving a revisionist historical tirade on the founding myths of Russia and Ukraine, the breakup of the Soviet Union and NATO expansionism. From there, admonishing Carlson when he interrupted, Putin pontificated on everything from the war in Ukraine and relations with the United States, the […]
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“Online commentator TuckAdd New Poster Carlson interviewed … Putin as part of a trip to Moscow, the Kremlin confirmed … Wednesday. … [O]n Tuesday, Carlson said he wanted to focus on the war in Ukraine. He is also seeking to interview … Zelenskiy. … There’s no airdate for the [Putin] interview … but Carlson said it would be free to […]
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Subject: RIP: Roger Kanet Date: Tue, 6 Feb 2024 From: Boyle, Francis A <fboyle@illinois.edu> When I joined the Law Faculty here in August of 1978, knowing of my extensive studies of Russia, the Soviet Union and the Soviet Legal System at Harvard, Roger asked me to become an associate of our then Russian Research Center. So I spent a lot […]
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“Is the Israel-Hamas war a distraction from Ukraine?” “… FIONA HILL: There’s a lot of concern … that there will be less emphasis on Ukraine [and not just for the United States] …. European countries … are being roiled by … Gaza …. described recently by [a] foreign minister … as a ‘black hole … sucking everything else into it’ […]
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(Russia Matters – russiamatters.org) 7 Things To Know Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy summoned Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (ZSU) Valerii Zaluzhnyi on Jan. 29 to tell the general he was being fired. At the meeting, Zaluzhnyi was offered the post of secretary of the national security council, but he turned it down, according to The Economist.[1] Two days […]
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“… [A]fter weeks of negotiation, the EU approved a 50 billion euro funding package for Ukraine … a much needed economic boost[] while the U.S. bill remains held up in Congress. On a recent episode of Carnegie Connects, host Aaron David Miller discussed … Russia’s war against Ukraine with Carnegie senior fellows Dara Massicot and Eric Ciaramella. … * * […]
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“Ukraine and some of its strongest supporters are pushing NATO to formally invite Kyiv to become a member … during a major upcoming summit, but … [reportedly] are facing significant behind-the-scenes pushback from the United States and Germany …. Kyiv has backing from Eastern European [NATO members] … including Poland and the Baltic states … [think Ukrainian] NATO membership [would […]
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“… By late spring, the Russians had adopted the kind of deep, prepared defenses that have been very difficult for attackers to break through for more than the last century …. Breakthrough … has long required permissive conditions … now absent in Ukraine: a defender … whose dispositions are shallow, forward, ill prepared, or logistically unsupported or whose troops are […]
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“… In a world in which the United States’ principal rivals — China and Russia — are led by personalistic autocrats operating within small and insular circles of advisers, gaining insight into leaders’ intentions is both more important and more difficult than ever. Just as 9/11 ushered in a new era for the CIA, so did Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. […]
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Subject: “Full-scale Invasion” Date: Tue, 30 Jan 2024 From: John Evans <evansinamerica@aol.com> [John Evans is an American former diplomat who served as United States ambassador to Armenia.] David, like you, I have been struck by the near-universal adoption of this phrase. I believe its original intent may have been to distinguish the February 2022 events from the earlier 2014 take-over […]
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(Moscow Times – Jan. 26, 2024) The Kremlin on Friday denied reports that President Vladimir Putin is probing to see whether the United States is willing to engage in talks for ending the war in Ukraine. A Bloomberg report published the day before cited two anonymous sources close to the Kremlin as saying that Putin had indirectly “put out feelers” […]
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“Wall Street has shown a keen interest in investing in Ukraine. The banker class … admires the country’s resiliency … [and] appreciates the geopolitical urgency in preventing … Putin from re-establishing the old Soviet Union …. … [T]hey liked Zelensky’s pitch in Davos: … [I]nflation … below 6% [down] from as high as 30%; the economy is growing. He plans […]
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“The [EU] [reportedly] is unlikely to confiscate Russian central bank assets frozen in Europe, despite G7 plans to discuss the legality of such a move at a meeting in February …. The EU, United States, Japan and Canada froze some $300 billion of Russian central bank assets in 2022 when Russia invaded Ukraine … [including roughly] $200 billion … held […]
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“Kyiv could delay salaries, return to printing money if funding from U.S. and EU falls through” “Ukraine [reportedly] will run out of money within months and be forced to take painful economic measures to keep the government running if aid from the U.S. or Europe doesn’t come through …. The U.S. and [EU] … have promised Kyiv billions of dollars […]
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(Paul Goble – Window On Eurasia – Staunton, Jan. 16, 2024) Western analysts and politicians cycle between viewing Russia as too strong for anyone to do anything about it to considering it so weak that its key sectors are about to collapse and therefore to argue that no radical steps are necessary to force Moscow to change its positions. That […]
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“… Russia’s resilient war economy, expanded materiel production, and population edge, combined with uncertainty about the West’s continued support of Ukraine … give Putin reason to double down. … [A]s … frontlines stabilize, the sky above will fill with ever-greater numbers of drones. Ukraine aims to acquire more than two million drones in 2024 — half of which it plans […]
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“Demand for atomic energy is surging but Moscow dominates the world’s supplies of enriched uranium.” “… Utilities companies have spent two years stockpiling nuclear fuel in case Russian supplies are disrupted. … Washington is undertaking a multibillion-dollar push to rebuild its nuclear supply chain …. More than a fifth of the fuel used by the 93 nuclear reactors in the […]
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(Russia Matters – russiamatters.org) 1. In the past month, Russian forces have gained 57 square miles of Ukrainian territory, while Ukrainian forces have re-gained 1 square mile, according to the Jan. 16, 2024, issue of the Russia-Ukraine War Report Card. In an article on the war entitled “Russia Regains Upper Hand in Ukraine’s East as Kyiv’s Troops Flag,” NYT noted […]
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“After its summer counteroffensive ended in failure, Kyiv is shifting to a new strategy as it prepares itself for a third year of war.” “… Ukraine’s military prospects appear to be dimming … [as it] abandon[s] hopes of a swift victory and … gird[s] itself for a drawn-out war. One western official … [sees] ‘little prospect of an operational breakthrough […]
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“After one year of war, it looked like Putin was going to lead a weakened, humbled nation. Entering year three, he has a chance to break Western solidarity.” “… The Russia that emerges from this war may be a hyper-mobilized, hyper-illiberal revisionist power with a deep pool of trained military manpower and a deep sense of grievance toward the West. […]
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“Western officials looking at confiscating Russian assets No decisions yet made – U.S. special representative Belgium: we need to work out a mechanism” “Western officials said in Davos … they were open to … confiscating $300 billion of Russian assets to help Ukraine, but cautioned … the devil was in the legal detail and that, even if it could be […]
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“No grounds for arms-control talks with U.S., Lavrov says Russia accuses U.S. of escalating confrontation over Ukraine” “Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov lashed the U.S. over … Ukraine and warned on the risks of confrontation between nuclear powers … [while] rul[ing] out … discussions on strategic security …. He accused the U.S. and … European allies of escalating … confrontation […]
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“If the White House demands that Kyiv hold Russia at bay rather than reconquer its own lands, it must also provide the armor and ammo.” “Speaking to … Zelenskiy on the sidelines of the World Economic Forum in Davos, U.S. National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan will deliver a message from … Joe Biden. The White House wants Ukraine to change […]
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(Voice of America – voanews.com – Jan. 16, 2024) U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken assured Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy of “strong enduring support for Ukraine” and a determination on the part of the Biden administration to continue military aid for Ukrainian forces. Blinken’s comments came at the start of talks Tuesday on the sidelines of the World Economic Forum […]
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“Wars of attrition, … what large-scale conflicts between militarily sophisticated adversaries such as Russia and Ukraine tend to become, are usually decided by … the better arms industry. Russia’s economy is nearly 14 times the size of Ukraine’s, but the combined resources of Ukraine’s allies are so much greater that it should be able to win. … Both America and […]
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(Russia Matters – russiamatters.org) 6 Things to Know The Pentagon has failed to properly track at least $1 billion in weapons that the U.S. has provided to Ukraine since the beginning of the Russian invasion, according to a report by the Defense Department’s inspector general, FT reports. The high rate of weapons that were missing or otherwise immediately unaccounted for in government […]
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“The report found that American officials and diplomats had failed to quickly or fully account for all of the nearly 40,000 weapons sent to the front.” “More than $1 billion worth of shoulder-fired missiles, kamikaze drones and night-vision goggles … sent [by the United States] to Ukraine have not been properly tracked by American officials, a new [DOD Inspector General] […]
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“[Medvedev, now deputy chairman of Russia’s Security Council] warned … Thursday that … Ukrainian attacks on missile launch sites inside Russia with arms supplied by the United States and its allies would risk a nuclear response from Moscow … [also saying] that some Ukrainian military commanders were considering hitting missile launch sites inside Russia with Western-supplied long-range missiles. … Putin […]
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“Rout of elite Ukraine forces in counteroffensive is a lesson in why the war effort is stalled” “… Because the West had dithered for months over the provision of tanks and other armored vehicles, the Russians were ready. They had dug in on the flat [southeastern] farmland … laying hundreds of thousands of mines and setting up firing positions for […]
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“Sullivan likely to raise strategy issue with Ukraine leader Tensions seen as war heads into third year with aid stalled” “The U.S. wants Ukraine to sharpen its plan for fighting Russia’s invasion as the war heads into its third year and is expected to raise the issue with … in Davos … and continue to push the point in the […]
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“… Israelis and Palestinians have been battling for more than 50 years without gaining lasting security. Russia’s unprovoked war in Ukraine began as a fever dream of … Putin. He failed to conquer Kyiv … but the bloody war of attrition has cost Russia an … 320,000 casualties and Ukraine … 170,000 to 190,000. The biggest national security question for […]
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(Russia Matters – russiamatters.org) “The ‘rules-based order’ that President Biden proclaims has become a slogan rather than a fact,” WP’s David Ignatius argues in his preview of how the Russian-Ukrainian war and other conflicts will evolve in 2024. In his latest column, Ignatius blasts Vladimir Putin’s aggression again Ukraine, but also reminds us how there was an “element of truth” in […]
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“Funding for more weapons and ammunition is held up in fight over border policy; ‘We’re out of money’” “The Washington stalemate over U.S. [border] policy … is … reverberat[ing] on the Ukraine battlefield, where Kyiv’s troops are running out of ammunition and the Pentagon says it can’t provide more without emptying its own arsenal. … [T]he Pentagon has run out […]
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“The good news is it would open the door to eventual EU and NATO membership.” “According to a recent report …. [Ukrainian] troops on the front line are running out of ammunition. Artillery shells are being rationed, forcing the Ukrainians to cancel planned assaults and making it hard to hold defensive positions against Russian attacks. … As Ukraine struggles, its […]
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(Russia Matters – russiamatters.org) The U.S. and its European allies “are quietly shifting their focus from supporting Ukraine’s goal of total victory over Russia to improving its position in an eventual negotiation to end the war,” according to a Biden administration official and a European diplomat interviewed by Politico. “Such a negotiation would likely mean giving up parts of Ukraine […]
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“By not arming Kyiv for a long-range campaign against Russia, the U.S. seems to be forcing a deal.” “… [W]hile Russia can strike anywhere in Ukraine, the U.S. has denied the Ukrainians the weapons they need to hit Russian targets, even in the parts of Ukraine that Russia occupies. This raises the question: Does [] Biden want Ukraine to win? […]
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“Blatant violations of international laws require a response and reparations would be in line with historical precedent.” “… [One] geopolitical flashpoint[] … may be … pressure to seize Russia’s reserves in foreign central banks to fund Ukraine. Western nations … reported[ly] … have been actively exploring the move …. rais[ing] worries about … consequences for the financial system, … that […]
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“The Soviet Union designed the S-300 … mobile, surface-to-air defense … system[] during the Cold War …. Russia unleashed 14 … offensively at cities in Ukraine …. part of a wave of missiles and drones … [in] the largest one-day aerial attack on Ukraine …. ripp[ing] into 45 multistory buildings, including schools, churches, hospitals, maternity wards, shopping centers and warehouses, […]
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(PONARS Eurasia (George Washington University) – March 11, 2022) Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, which we condemn in the harshest possible terms, continues to wreak carnage in Ukraine. Representing a community of scholars, the PONARS Eurasia Executive Committee is appalled that some in the global academic community have supported the invasion and use their scholarly positions to justify it, including a long […]
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Overnight, Russia launched its largest aerial assault on Ukraine since this war began. This massive bombardment used drones and missiles, including missiles with hypersonic capability, to strike cities and civilian infrastructure all across Ukraine. Strikes reportedly hit a maternity hospital, a shopping mall, and residential areas — killing innocent people and injuring dozens more. It is a stark reminder to […]
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“… Russia has successfully circumvented sanctions on its oil … divert[ing] flows from Europe to China and India, … together account[ing] for around 90% of … crude exports, [according to Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak.] … He said … Europe’s share of Russia’s crude exports has fallen to … about 4-5% from about 40-45%. … [Regarding] … OPEC+ …, […]
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“At the start of 2023, hopes were high that a much-vaunted Ukrainian counteroffensive would change the dial in the war …. It didn’t … 2024 could be even harder. Ukraine’s alliances with the U.S. and Europe could be destabilized further in 2024, putting the future of military aid packages in doubt. The amount of support and military hardware Ukraine receives […]
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“… The advent of the war triggered fears of outright nuclear conflict between the West and Russia. That period of somewhat frenzied speculation has passed. The war has since settled into a grinding—but conventional—stalemate. To be sure, U.S. officials are still concerned that Russia may use tactical nuclear weapons on the battlefield. … The unfortunate truth is that Washington cannot […]
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“Russia and the U.S. could be headed for a major escalation, according to [Sergei Ryabkov, Russian deputy foreign minister responsible for ties with the U.S., arms control and non-proliferation.] … [Ryakkov] said … confiscation of frozen Russian assets could lead to diplomatic relations … being severed. … [R]eports emerged that the Biden administration could be close to seizing more than […]
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