JRL NEWSWATCH: “U.S. had intelligence of Ukrainian plan to attack Nord Stream project – Washington Post” – Reuters

Gas Flame file photo

“The United States learned of a Ukrainian plan to attack the Nord Stream natural gas pipelines three months before they were damaged … The Washington Post reported … citing [online] leaked information …. [washingtonpost.com/national-security/2023/06/06/nord-stream-pipeline-explosion-ukraine-russia/] The CIA [reportedly] learned last June, through a European spy agency, that a six-person team of Ukrainian special operations forces intended to blow up the Russia-to-Germany […]

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Russia in Review, May 26-June 2, 2023 – 4 Things to Know

File Photo of Red Square, Kremlin, Environs, adapted from image at state.gov

(Russia Matters – russiamatters.org) Fighting flared up this week between Russian and Ukrainian forces, with the former bombarding Kyiv with missiles and drones and the latter reportedly sending pro-Ukrainian Russian fighters to stage incursions into Russia’s Belgorod region, according to FT and Bloomberg. Ukrainian forces regained control over 51 square miles of their land in the past month, while Russia […]

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Kissinger on Russia: Insights and Recommendations

Henry Kissinger File Photo, with Military Officer and Others in Background; adapted from image at defense.gov,; original image was DoD photo by Air Force Senior Master Sgt. Adrian Cadiz

(Russia Matters – russiamatters.org – Henry Kissinger and RM Staff – May 26, 2023) This evolving compilation of observations and policy ideas about Russia by Henry Kissinger, an eminent U.S. statesman who turns 100 on May 27, 2023, was the first in Russia Matters’ “Competing Views” series, where we share prominent American thinkers’ alternative takes on U.S.-Russian relations, Russia itself […]

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Russia in Review, May 19-26, 2023 – 5 Things to Know

Kremlin and Red Square file photo, adapted from image at state.gov

( Russia Matters – russiamatters.org) Two Russian rebel groups linked to the Ukrainian military raided a number of settlements in western Russia this week before being expelled. The rebels used U.S.-made vehicles in the raids, prompting U.S. officials to remind Kyiv that Washington doesn’t condone the use of U.S.-delivered equipment in attacks inside Russia. The U.S. intelligence community believes at […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “The Outcome of the War in Ukraine Depends on China and India” – The Nation

Asia Map

“Whether Americans like it or not, this country will have little choice but to begin planning for an emerging world order.” “… Amid the seemingly never-ending catastrophe of the war in Ukraine, it’s become increasingly evident that China and India are likely to shape its final resolution. Russia can’t keep fighting without … [their] support … thanks to their refusal […]

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Russia in Review, May 12-19, 2023 – 5 Things to Know

File Photo of Red Square, Kremlin, Environs, adapted from image at state.gov

(Russia Matters – russiamatters.org) Chinese President Xi Jinping told leaders of the five Central Asian republics that Beijing is ready to help them strengthen “their law enforcement, security and defense” capacities. Playing host to these leaders in Xian during a two-day summit, Xi also said China would provide $3.7 billion in financing support and “free assistance” to the five republics […]

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RUSSIALINK: “Russian Oil Exports Hit Post-Invasion High – IEA” – Moscow Times

Oil Wells file photo, adapted from image at usda.gov

(Moscow Times – May 16, 2023) Russia’s oil exports rose in April to the highest level since its invasion of Ukraine, boosting revenues by $1.7 billion despite Western sanctions, the International Energy Agency said Tuesday. The Paris-based organization said Russian exports increased by 50,000 barrels per day to 8.3 million bpd last month, estimating that the country did not fully […]

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Russia in Review, May 5-12, 2023: 7 Things to Know

(Russia Matters – russiamatters.org) Moscow blaming West at every turn: Vladimir Putin attacked the West on May 9, claiming that Russia’s future depended on the outcome of the war in Ukraine, as he attended a slimmed-down military parade to mark victory over Nazi Germany in WWII, MT reports. “A real war has once again been unleashed against our motherland,” he […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Kremlin Extends Global Influence With Russian Nuclear-Power Juggernaut” – WSJ

File Image of Radioactive Atom, adapted from image at lanl.gov

“Russia’s atomic-energy giant Rosatom does business around the world, including with the U.S. and allies like Turkey.” “… Rosatom State Atomiс Energy Corp.[] has expanded its global reach in recent years and is the world’s leader in constructing and operating nuclear projects abroad, working on 34 power units in 11 countries from China to Egypt to Hungary. In recent decades, […]

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Russia in Review, March 31-April 7, 2023 – 5 Things to Know

File Photo of Red Square, Kremlin, Environs, adapted from image at state.gov

(Russia Matters – russiamatters.org) Three days of Xi’s talks with Macron and von der Leyen reaffirmed their rhetorical commitment to peace in Ukraine and an end to nuclear saber-rattling, but produced no concrete measures for attaining either. A readout of the trilateral talks in Beijing by the Chinese MFA said Xi told his two guests that a ceasefire in Ukraine […]

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Russia in Review, March 24-31, 2023 – 3 Things to Know

File Photo of Red Square, Kremlin, Environs, adapted from image at state.gov

(Russia Matters – russiamatters.org) Russia’s new foreign policy concept declares “an era of revolutionary change” in the world order, but leaves the door open to normalizing relations with the West. To facilitate the formation of a “more just, multipolar world,” Russia will prioritize the “elimination of vestiges of dominance by the U.S.,” according to the new document, which replaces Russia’s […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Russia’s Economy Is Starting to Come Undone” – WSJ

Kremlin and River

“Investment is down, labor is scarce, budget is squeezed. Oligarch: ‘There will be no money next year’” “The opening months of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine last year drove an increase in oil and natural-gas prices that brought a windfall for Moscow. Those days are over. As the war continues into its second year and Western sanctions bite harder, Russia’s government […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Has war in Ukraine sealed the bond between Russia and China?” – Christian Science Monitor/Fred Weir

File Photo of Beijing Temple, adapted from image at lbl.gov

“Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin’s summit in Moscow was nominally meant to be about bringing peace to Ukraine. But it appears to have strengthened the countries’ partnership against the West.” “When … Xi Jinping arrived in Moscow [last week] for a three-day summit with … Putin, one of the most talked about [subjects] … was a Chinese-mediated settlement for the […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Insurance Agencies Would Love to Know Who Blew Up Nord Stream” – Foreign Policy

Gas Flame file photo

“An era of gray zone warfare and sabotage creates tough financial questions.” “Western European companies invested billions of dollars in the pipelines. Whether their insurance will cover the losses caused by the sabotage depends on who perpetrated it. And as the global geopolitical standoff intensifies, companies face many more enormous losses, hunts for the perpetrator, and disputes about whether the […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “‘China’s Xi Jinping and Russia’s Vladimir Putin to Strengthen Economic, Political Ties” – WSJ

File Photo of Beijing Temple, adapted from image at lbl.gov

“War in Ukraine looms over Chinese leader’s visit, while the West worries about a more-powerful Russia-China axis.” “[] Xi came into the trip — the 40th meeting between the two leaders — seeking to cast himself as a potential peacemaker in the Ukraine war, even as [] Putin demonstrates his determination to carry on the fighting. … Xi’s high-profile visit […]

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Russia in Review, March 3-10, 2023 – 7 Things to Know

File Photo of Red Square, Kremlin, Environs, adapted from image at state.gov

(Russia Matters – russiamatters.org) Russia has carried out one of its largest strikes on Ukraine, with 81 missiles and 8 drones fired at 10 of Ukraine’s 27 regions on March 9. Among the missiles that were reportedly fired were 28 Kh-101 and Kh-555 air-launched cruise missiles, 20 Kalibr sea-launched cruise missiles, 13 S-300 surface-to-air missiles, eight Kh-31P, six Kh-59 guided […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: Russia set to mothball damaged Nord Stream gas pipelines – sources” – Reuters

Gas Flame file photo

“Russia’s ruptured undersea Nord Stream gas pipelines [reportedly] are set to be sealed up and mothballed as there are no immediate plans to repair or reactivate them …. Nord Stream 1 and Nord Stream 2, each consisting of two pipes, were built by … Gazprom to pump 110 billion cubic metres (bcm) of natural gas a year to Germany under […]

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Russia Analytical Report, Feb. 21-27, 2023 – 5 Ideas to Explore

File Photo of Red Square, Kremlin, Environs, adapted from image at state.gov

(Russia Matters – russiamatters.org) Assessing the first year of Russia’s war against Ukraine, Graham Allison and Stephen Kotkin underline the brute fact: Ukraine is not winning. The war has become a colossal strategic failure for Putin, but Russia does control almost one-fifth of Ukraine, Harvard’s Allison writes in his analysis of the Russia-Ukraine War Report Card, which was produced by the […]

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Russia in Review, Feb. 17-24, 2023 – 5 Things to Know

File Photo of Red Square, Kremlin, Environs, adapted from image at state.gov

(Russia Matters – russiamatters.org) China’s “peace plan” for Ukraine, vague on how peace can be attained, sends clear signals that Beijing’s support for Moscow is neither univocal nor limitless. The very first of the plan’s 12 points declares, in a clear acknowledgement of the Ukrainian state’s fundamental rights, that the “sovereignty, independence and territorial integrity of all countries must be […]

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How Sanctions On Russia’s Nuclear Sector Could Backfire

(oilprice.com – Global Risk Insights – Feb. 20, 2023) The EU is debating sanctioning Russia’s nuclear sector, with the EU parliament passing a resolution by 489 votes to 36 urging European Union leaders to include sanctions on Russia’s nuclear industry. Nuclear energy produces roughly one fifth of electricity in the EU and USA. Russia is a major supplier of uranium […]

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Russia in Review, Feb. 10-17, 2023 – 4 Things to Know

File Photo of Red Square, Kremlin, Environs, adapted from image at state.gov

(Russia Matters – russiamatters.org) U.S. officials are telling Ukrainian leaders that they are facing a critical moment to change the trajectory of the war, raising the pressure on Kyiv to make significant gains on the battlefield while aid from the West is flowing, WP reported. “We can’t do anything and everything forever,” one senior administration official said, warning that it will […]

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Russia’s Budget Deficit Jumps Amid Plunging Oil Revenues

Cash, Calculator, Pen

(Oilprice.com – Charles Kennedy – Feb. 7, 2023) Russia’s budget was $24.7 billion (1.76 trillion rubles) into deficit in January. Total budget revenues slumped by 35% last month compared to the same month of 2022. The low price of Russia’s flagship grade is reducing Russian revenues from oil due to the steep discount at which Urals trades relative to the […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Russia’s economic growth suggests Western sanctions are having a limited impact” – New York Times

File Photo of IMF Acronym on Wall Below Row of Circular Lights, adapted from image at state.gov by Steven C. Welsh :: www.stevencwelsh.com :: www.stevencwelsh.info

“The resilience of Russia’s economy is helping fuel global growth, according to a new [I.M.F.] report … suggesting … [Western] efforts … to weaken Moscow because of its war in Ukraine appear to be faltering. … [T]he I.M.F. predicts … Russian output will expand 0.3 percent … this year and 2.1 percent next year, defying earlier forecasts …. A … […]

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Russia’s Oil And Gas Revenues Are In Decline

Oil Wells file photo, adapted from image at usda.gov

(Oilprice.com – Tsvetana Paraskova – Jan. 19, 2023) Russia’s current account surplus hit a quarterly record in the second quarter of 2022 as its imports fell and the value of its exports soared. Since that record quarter, Russia’s current account surplus has dropped every quarter as gas exports dried up and oil prices fell. Russia’s energy export revenues are set […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Russia’s Energy Clout Is Waning, Weakening Its Global Influence” – WSJ

Gas Flame file photo

“The rebalancing is stoking Moscow’s fear of becoming a junior partner to Beijing.” “… Putin‘s use of energy as a weapon of financial war is increasingly backfiring, threatening the core of Russia’s beleaguered economy and curtailing its geopolitical influence. Western sanctions, falling prices for Russian fossil fuels and strategic miscalculations are hurting the country’s oil-and-gas industry while the war in […]

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Russia Analytical Report, Nov. 28-Dec. 5, 2022: 4 Ideas to Explore

File Photo of Red Square, Kremlin, Environs, adapted from image at state.gov

(Russia Matters – russiamatters.org – Dec. 5, 2022) While rightly helping Ukraine to defend itself, the Pentagon and weapons contractors should not be allowed to exploit the crisis to expand the U.S. arms industry “in ways that go far beyond what is needed to help Ukraine in its current conflict,” according to William Hartung of the Quincy Institute for Responsible […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Sanctions on Russia Are Working. Here’s Why.” – Foreign Policy/ Agathe Demarais

File Image of Artist's Conception of Globe with Curved Connecting Lines of Light Passing Through Space, adapted from image at fincen.gov

“The Kremlin’s ability to wage war is already constrained, but the worst is yet to come.” “… [I]ncessant debates over the effectiveness of sanctions … serve[] the Kremlin’s interests. … [W]inter fast approaching, Putin is betting that sanctions fatigue will soon set in. … [D]ata show[] that the people claiming sanctions are ineffective are wrong: Only nine months after … […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “EU Asks Members to Set Russia Oil-Price Cap at $60” – WSJ

Oil Well file photo

“Move is an attempt to squeeze the Kremlin’s oil revenues while keeping global supplies steady.” “The European Commission, the [EU]’s executive body, [reportedly] has asked the [EU]’s 27 member states to approve a … Russian oil [price cap] of $60 a barrel …. significantly below the international benchmark … Brent …. … [T]he [G7] … nations [would] need to sign […]

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Russia Analytical Report, Nov. 21-28, 2022: 6 Ideas to Explore

File Photo of Red Square, Kremlin, Environs, adapted from image at state.gov

(Russia Matters – russiamatters.org – Nov. 28, 2022) Key U.S. officials have begun to wonder whether “the U.S. has already reaped all the advantages the Ukraine war has to offer,” according to Hal Brands of Johns Hopkins University. “As time passes, the cost may get higher [for the U.S.]—in distraction from other regions, in scarce munitions consumed, in vulnerability to […]

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Russia vs. Europe: Who Is Winning the Energy War?

Gas Flame file photo

(Russia Matters – russiamatters.org – Li-Chen Sim – Nov. 23, 2022) Li-Chen Sim is an assistant professor at Khalifa University in the United Arab Emirates and a non-resident scholar at the Middle East Institute in Washington, D.C. One of Vladimir Lenin’s most enduring phrases regarding political power has been “kto kogo?”1 — “who [will beat] whom?” This same question is […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Europe accuses U.S. of profiting from war; EU officials attack Joe Biden over sky-high gas prices, weapons sales and trade as Vladimir Putin’s war threatens to destroy Western unity.” – Politico

File Photo of Joe Biden at Podium in Front of U.S. and State Department Flags, adapted from image at usembassy.gov

“… Top European officials are furious with Joe Biden’s administration … accus[ing] … Americans of making a fortune from the war, while EU countries suffer. … The biggest point of tension [recently]… has been Biden’s green subsidies and taxes that Brussels says unfairly tilt trade away from the EU and threaten to destroy European industries. Despite formal [European] objections … […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Zelenskyy vows Ukraine will withstand Russian attacks on power networks; ‘We must return all lands,’ Ukrainian president tells the FT” – Financial Times

Screenshot file photo of Volodymyr Zelensky Gesturing, from Congressional Teleconference, adapted from image at doggett.house.gov

“… Zelenskyy said Russia’s new strategy to destroy Ukraine’s infrastructure … would not weaken the country’s resolve to liberate all occupied land, describing the conflict as a ‘war of strength and resilience.’ … insist[ing] there would be no lasting resolution to the war unless Russia withdrew from all [Russian-occupied] territories …. Kyiv has been pushing back at perceived pressure to […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “High fuel prices could kill more Europeans than fighting in Ukraine” – The Economist

Map of Europe, adapted from image at loc.gov

“Russia is using energy as a weapon. How deadly will it be?” “To win … in Ukraine … Putin needs the West to stop supporting his adversary. His best opportunity to drive a wedge between them will arrive this winter. … In August [] Putin turned off … a big pipeline to Europe. Fuel prices surged, squeezing the economies of […]

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Russia Has Lost Over 90% Of Its European Oil Market Share

Oil Well file photo

(oilprice.com – Josh Owens – Nov. 21, 2022) Russia has already lost over 90% of its previous top European market—northern Europe—as shipments have slumped to below 100,000 barrels per day (bpd) in recent weeks from more than 1.2 million bpd before the Russian invasion of Ukraine, according to Bloomberg’s estimates. The EU embargo on seaborne imports of Russian crude oil […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Cold and dark: Kyiv readies for ‘worst winter of our lives’” – AP

Power Plant Transformers Outdoors, adapted from image at energy.gov

“… The situation in Ukraine’s … major cities has deteriorated drastically following the largest missile attack on the country’s power grid on Tuesday. … Ukrenergo reported that 40% of Ukrainians were experiencing difficulties, due to damage to at least 15 major energy hubs …. [w]arning that electricity outages could last anywhere from several hours to several days …. Blackouts were […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Ukraine tells allies it may not be able to recover from more Russian attacks on energy systems” – Politico 11.16.22

Power Plant Transformers Outdoors, adapted from image at energy.gov

“Ukrainian officials are asking the U.S. and Europe for parts to fix its electric grid and gas systems.” “… Ukrainian officials have … asked … American counterparts and more than half a dozen European countries for assistance preparing for a prolonged period with limited electricity and gas …. Ukraine needs key components like generators, pipes and valves to repair … […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Russia maintains grip on global nuclear energy landscape” – Financial Times

File Image of Radioactive Atom, adapted from image at lanl.gov

“Increasing use of atomic power would not necessarily free economies from Moscow’s influence.” “Faced with a global energy crisis and a race to slash emissions, advanced economies are starting to reconsider nuclear power after … declining investment. … But an atomic shift does not necessarily free a country from energy dependence on Russia, given the scale of the country’s presence […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Can Ukraine Survive the Winter? What the Country Needs to Hold Out” – Foreign Affairs

Map of Ukraine, Including Crimea, and Neighbors, Including Russia

“… Russia has repeatedly targeted civilian infrastructure …. successfully attack[ing] 40 percent of Ukraine’s power grids with … missiles and Iranian drones. … bomb[ing] energy facilities, including hydroelectric dams, leaving more than one million Ukrainians without electricity. In Kyiv, [reportedly] 80 percent of residents are without water …. Economists project … Kyiv’s economy will shrink by at least 35 percent […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Sabotage at sea; Vladimir Putin says the world’s energy infrastructure is ‘at risk'” – The Economist

Gas Flame file photo

“He would know. And internet infrastructure is vulnerable too.” “On October 12th … Putin … gave an ominous warning. Energy infrastructure around the world was now ‘at risk,’ he said. … a month after explosions tore through Nord Stream 1 and 2 …. Russia denies responsibility  …. But few doubt … the Kremlin did it. …. The attacks occurred just […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “The uncomfortable need to talk about diplomacy with Russia” – Washington Post

European Portion of Commonwealth of Independent States

“The United States and … European partners continue to provide military aid and arms to Kyiv in the hope that Ukraine can press its current advantage, reclaim territories seized by Russia over the past eight months and, at the very least, win itself a stronger hand whenever the warring parties do attempt meaningful negotiations. The Kremlin … has responded to […]

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RUSSIALINK: “Oil Exports Helping Cushion Russian Economy – IMF” – Moscow Times

Oil Wells file photo, adapted from image at usda.gov

(Moscow Times – Oct. 11, 2022) Russia’s recession will be less severe than expected due to oil exports and relatively stable domestic demand, according to the latest International Monetary Fund forecasts released on Tuesday. While the IMF estimates Russia’s economy to have contracted by 21.8% during the second quarter at a quarterly annualized rate, for the year as a whole […]

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RUSSIALINK: “Putin Says ‘Ball in EU’s Court’ on Restarting Nord Stream Deliveries” – Moscow Times

Gas Flame file photo

(Moscow Times – Oct. 12, 2022) Russian President Vladimir Putin on Wednesday said his country was a reliable energy supplier and blamed the West for disruptions on the market at an energy forum in Moscow. After the Nord Stream pipelines connecting Russia to Europe were damaged by explosions, Putin said “the ball was in the EU’s court” to resume deliveries. […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Russia Confounds the West by Recapturing Its Oil Riches” – WSJ

Oil Wells file photo, adapted from image at usda.gov

“Moscow is raking in more revenue than ever with the help of new buyers, new traders and the world’s seemingly insatiable demand for crude.” “Russia pumps almost as much oil into the global market as … before its invasion of Ukraine. With oil prices up, Moscow is also making more money. Demand from some of the world’s largest economies has […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Sanctions are working – whatever Putin says” – The Spectator

Diverse Paper Currency, Coins, Line Graph

“Don’t believe … Putin’s hype. The Russian economy is not OK. With western sanctions jeopardising up to 40 per cent of the country’s GDP, Putin’s assurances of an economic pivot to the East are a sham. And his weaponising of gas supplies to Europe is the financial equivalent of strapping on a suicide vest. That, roughly, is the message of […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Western sanctions have had ‘limited impact’ on Russian oil output, says IEA” – Financial Times

Oil Wells file photo, adapted from image at usda.gov

“Rerouting of Moscow’s crude to India, China and Turkey has helped offset curbs elsewhere.” “… Moscow’s exports of crude and oil products to Europe, the U.S., Japan and Korea had fallen by nearly 2.2mn barrels a day since its full-scale invasion of Ukraine, the [International Energy Agency] said. But the rerouting of flows to countries including India, China and Turkey […]

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VIDEO: JRL NEWSWATCH: “How is that Kremlin bank account looking?” – Fox

Diverse Paper Currency, Coins, Line Graph

“Imported items including i-phones are still available.” “… ‘We’ve had some figures for the first half of 2022 released …’ Peter Mironenko of ‘The Bell’ tells Fox …. ‘… On the one hand … in the second quarter[] GDP fell around 4% and in the third quarter we will have about 7%. This is recession. But the scale is much […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Gerhard Schröder says Russia wants negotiated end to Ukraine war” – Financial Times

Map of Ukraine, Including Crimea, and Neighbors, Including Russia

“German ex-chancellor stepped down as chair of Rosneft but defends friendship with Vladimir Putin” “Germany’s former chancellor Gerhard Schröder has said after he visited … Putin in Moscow last week that the Kremlin is open to talks to end the war in Ukraine. … Schröder has been harshly criticised in recent months over his refusal to distance himself from Putin, […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Russia Is Making Heaps of Money From Oil, but There Is a Way to Stop That” – New York Times

Oil Well file photo

“… Nations seeking to help Ukraine are aiming at the wrong target. … Russia’s energy exports instead of … Russia’s earnings from energy exports. Russia is exporting less oil but … [reportedly] earning more money …. [S]anctions have raised prices … offsetting … declin[ing] … exports. In May 2022, Russia earned 883 million euros per day from oil exports, up […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “U.S., Europe Dig In for Long Economic Standoff With Russia” – WSJ

“After Moscow cuts gas flows again on Nord Stream, Washington and Brussels bet on longer-term effects of sanctions.” “Western governments are bracing for a protracted economic confrontation with Russia over … Ukraine, as Moscow fights back against … sanctions by disrupting energy and food supplies. On Wednesday, Russia cut natural gas … on the crucial Nord Stream pipeline to Germany […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Ukraine’s State Energy Firm Nears Default” – WSJ

Gas Flame file photo

“Naftogaz is seeking government approval to make payments by the end of Tuesday.” “Ukraine’s NJSC Naftogaz was hours away from default after lenders rejected its request to delay payments on more than $1.4 billion of foreign-currency bonds. … [T]he state energy company was seeking [Ukrainian government] approval … to repay … a $335 million note that matured last week. … […]

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