( Russia Matters – russiamatters.org) Two Russian rebel groups linked to the Ukrainian military raided a number of settlements in western Russia this week before being expelled. The rebels used U.S.-made vehicles in the raids, prompting U.S. officials to remind Kyiv that Washington doesn’t condone the use of U.S.-delivered equipment in attacks inside Russia. The U.S. intelligence community believes at […]
» Read more
“… Russia’s approach to nuclear weapons has evolved since the invasion … and not in comforting ways. The war further nuclearized the Russian establishment’s strategic thought and normalized nuclear weapons in the public’s consciousness. … Evidence … indicate[s] that over the last year and a half Russia’s military has doubled down on its conceptualization of deterrence strategy, and that it […]
» Read more
(Russia Matters – russiamatters.org) Chinese President Xi Jinping told leaders of the five Central Asian republics that Beijing is ready to help them strengthen “their law enforcement, security and defense” capacities. Playing host to these leaders in Xian during a two-day summit, Xi also said China would provide $3.7 billion in financing support and “free assistance” to the five republics […]
» Read more
(Russia Matters – russiamatters.org – April 14, 2023) The latest batch of leaked top-secret U.S. intelligence assessments paint a significantly grimmer picture of Ukraine’s fighting chances than one would typically find on the editorial pages of America’s leading newspapers. The leaked documents warn that Ukraine’s anticipated spring counteroffensive will likely result in “modest territorial gains” that would fall “well short” of Kyiv’s goals, […]
» Read more
(Russia Matters – russiamatters.org) Three days of Xi’s talks with Macron and von der Leyen reaffirmed their rhetorical commitment to peace in Ukraine and an end to nuclear saber-rattling, but produced no concrete measures for attaining either. A readout of the trilateral talks in Beijing by the Chinese MFA said Xi told his two guests that a ceasefire in Ukraine […]
» Read more
(Russia Matters – russiamatters.org) Russia’s new foreign policy concept declares “an era of revolutionary change” in the world order, but leaves the door open to normalizing relations with the West. To facilitate the formation of a “more just, multipolar world,” Russia will prioritize the “elimination of vestiges of dominance by the U.S.,” according to the new document, which replaces Russia’s […]
» Read more
“A top Russian security official warned Thursday about the rising threat of a nuclear war and blasted a German minister for threatening … Putin with arrest, saying that such action would amount to a declaration of war and trigger a Russian strike on Germany. Dmitry Medvedev, … deputy secretary of Russia’s Security Council chaired by Putin, said … that Russia’s […]
» Read more
“The international arms-control architecture is falling apart, and proliferation concerns are growing.” “… Putin said last month that Moscow was suspending application of … New START … one of the last arms-control treaties still operating[,] … limit[ing] … strategic nuclear weapons deployed by Russia and the U.S. His announcement follows repeated thinly veiled threats [about Russia’s] … readiness to use […]
» Read more
(Russia Matters – russiamatters.org) Vladimir Putin’s conviction that the U.S. somehow encouraged North Caucasus-based terrorist groups prior to one such group’s deadly hostage-taking raid in Beslan in 2004 played a major role in his turn away from the West, according to David Ignatius’ analysis of a new book, “Hand-Off: The Foreign Policy George W. Bush Passed to Barack Obama.” “We […]
» Read more
(Russia Matters – russiamatters.org) U.S. public’s support for aiding Ukraine is decreasing as Americans’ war weariness increases with time, according to veteran journalist Peter Baker’s news analysis in NYT. Overall, support has fallen from 60% last May to 48% now, according to AP/NORC surveys. The decline is more pronounced among Republican respondents, which shows in statements by GOP presidential contenders. […]
» Read more
“… Speaking at the U.N. conference on disarmament, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov denounced the U.S. and its allies for openly declaring the goal of defeating Russia in a ‘hybrid’ war …. Ryabkov warned that ‘the U.S. and NATO policy of fueling the conflict in Ukraine’ and their ‘increasing involvement in the military confrontation is fraught with a direct […]
» Read more
“A senior Russian diplomat says Moscow may continue to exchange information with the United States on issues related to their nuclear forces even after the suspension of the last remaining arms control pact between the two countries.” “Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov said that Russia has given the U.S. Embassy formal notice about the New START treaty’s suspension after … […]
» Read more
(Russia Matters – russiamatters.org) China’s “peace plan” for Ukraine, vague on how peace can be attained, sends clear signals that Beijing’s support for Moscow is neither univocal nor limitless. The very first of the plan’s 12 points declares, in a clear acknowledgement of the Ukrainian state’s fundamental rights, that the “sovereignty, independence and territorial integrity of all countries must be […]
» Read more
(Moscow Times – Nurbek Savitahunov, Samantha Berkhead, Pyotr Kozlov – Feb. 21, 2023) President Vladimir Putin on Tuesday vowed to press onward with Russia’s war in Ukraine and railed against the West for a litany of wrongdoings in his first state-of-the-nation address since invading Ukraine one year ago. Addressing lawmakers from both houses of parliament alongside other members of the […]
» Read more
(Russia Matters – russiamatters.org) Warnings by Ukrainian officials of a coming Russian offensive have multiplied in the past few days. A Ukraine military intelligence official has told the Kyiv Post that the Russian attack is expected to come around Feb. 24, while an adviser to the Ukrainian military told FT that the offensive could come within 10 days. Better trained and equipped […]
» Read more
(Russia Matters – russiamatters.org – Feb. 6, 2023) Russia may authorize a nuclear strike on Ukraine if the latter uses missiles supplied by NATO for strikes deep into Russia territory that would hit urban residential areas, according to Alexey Arbatov, one of Russia’s leading nuclear arms experts. NATO’s delivery of such missiles to Ukraine will constitute crossing a Russian redline, […]
» Read more
“… The most perilous moment will be when Ukraine is on the cusp of victory, and Putin feels he can salvage his invasion only through an unprecedented escalation. … [A]nother perilous moment will come if Russian military or political leaders decide … direct military confrontation with NATO is inevitable. … Western policymakers should actively seek to mitigate [that scenario if […]
» Read more
“How great is the risk for the West after the decision to send tanks to Ukraine? In an interview, Russia expert and former U.S. government adviser Angela Stent discusses German weapons deliveries to Kyiv and the mistakes made in dealing with Moscow.” “DER SPIEGEL: … How might this war end? Stent: Nobody knows … because neither side is interested in […]
» Read more
(Russia Matters – russiamatters.org – Jan. 6-13, 2023) 4 Things to Know Latest reshuffle leaves Gen. Valery Gerasimov personally responsible for the military outcomes of Russia’s war against Ukraine. Vladimir Putin has fired Gen. Sergei Surovikin as the commander of Russia’s joint group of forces in Ukraine, installing chief of the General Staff Gen. Gerasimov in his place. The Jan. […]
» Read more
(Russia Matters – russiamatters.org – Dec. 19, 2022) The time has come to build “a new structure toward achieving peace through negotiation,” according to Kissinger. “The goal of a peace process [for Ukraine] would be twofold: to confirm the freedom of Ukraine and to define a new international structure” in which “Russia should find a place,” Kissinger writes in The […]
» Read more
“… Putin said … Moscow could adopt what he described as a U.S. concept of using preemptive military strikes … in a blunt statement amid rising Russia-NATO tensions over Ukraine. … For years, the Kremlin has expressed concern about U.S. efforts to develop the so-called Conventional Prompt Global Strike capability that envisions hitting an adversary’s strategic targets with precision-guided conventional […]
» Read more
(Russia Matters – russiamatters.org – Dec. 5, 2022) While rightly helping Ukraine to defend itself, the Pentagon and weapons contractors should not be allowed to exploit the crisis to expand the U.S. arms industry “in ways that go far beyond what is needed to help Ukraine in its current conflict,” according to William Hartung of the Quincy Institute for Responsible […]
» Read more
“Russian leader is seen improvising after setbacks. ‘A degree of desperation,’ one academic says.” “… Russia’s repeated ultimatums and U-turns … [and] ever-shifting war aims[] have reinforced the belief among Western government officials that [] Putin is being forced to improvise in a war that has slipped out of his control…. [But] nonetheless they must take what [Putin] says seriously, […]
» Read more
“… Ukraine is advancing on the battlefield and is growing only more determined to expel Russian troops. … [T]he Kremlin reinforces its beleaguered forces …, pounds Ukrainian cities and critical infrastructure, and hints at the possible use of nuclear weapons. … [T]he United States and its allies are speeding more weapons to Ukraine …. Ukraine, with the West’s help, has […]
» Read more
(Article text Copyright © 2022 RFE/RL, Inc. Reprinted with the permission of Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, 1201 Connecticut Ave NW, Ste 400, Washington DC 20036. – rferl.org – Vazha Tavberidze – Oct. 22, 2022 – article text also appeared at rferl.org/a/russia-ukrain-putin-nuclear-escalation-allison/32095783.html) Graham Allison is a Harvard professor and former U.S. defense official with expertise in nuclear weapons, Russia, China, and […]
» Read more
“A secret, direct channel between the Kremlin and the White House helped to prevent nuclear war 60 years ago …. [Russian Ambassor to the United States Anatoly Antonov] … [says] no such communication now exists, setting the stage for a new and dangerous era …. Antonov said the two powers were now at a considerable disadvantage, as ‘today, the infrastructure […]
» Read more
” As NATO holds nuclear exercises, Western spooks watch Russia’s warheads for any sign of movement.” “… Russia’s and America’s … long-range ‘strategic’ weapons are closely monitored under … New [S]tart … [but] many … can be fired without warning. Satellites and ground radars would spot and track ballistic missiles only after they were fired; low-flying cruise missiles would be […]
» Read more
“The United States and … European partners continue to provide military aid and arms to Kyiv in the hope that Ukraine can press its current advantage, reclaim territories seized by Russia over the past eight months and, at the very least, win itself a stronger hand whenever the warring parties do attempt meaningful negotiations. The Kremlin … has responded to […]
» Read more
“Ukrainian power infrastructure takes heavy damage.” “Russia’s top military commander in Ukraine signaled Moscow’s hold on the southern city of Kherson was weakening, and Ukraine said Russian strikes since last week had knocked out some 30% of its power-plant infrastructure, raising concerns of countrywide blackouts. … Western military analysts have long said that Russian forces would be advised to leave […]
» Read more
“There are two basic ways to think about the war — and the world.” “… [K]ey decision-makers on both sides view the war as an all-or-nothing struggle with far-reaching global implications — worsening the risk of dangerous escalation the longer it lasts. … [W]hat happens in Ukraine is important but not likely to determine the fate of the planet. … […]
» Read more
This month humanity will mark the 60th anniversary of what American historian Arthur M. Schlesinger Jr. described as the most dangerous moment in human history. But has his 1999 proposition remained valid? Or has the current crisis in relations between the U.S. and its allies on one side and Russia on the other become more dangerous than the Cuban Missile […]
» Read more
“Russia’s attacks on a dozen Ukrainian cities … in what Moscow calls retaliation for the sabotage of the Kerch Bridge … bring the world ever closer to nuclear war, four U.S. government and military sources told Newsweek. The officials, all working on nuclear-weapons issues, said … not enough is being done to avoid nuclear escalation at a time that battlefield […]
» Read more
“As the alliance meets this week, leaders must discuss how they will react if Russia uses weapons of mass destruction.” “NATO defense ministers will gather this week for a ministerial meeting, but one topic of discussion will be anything but routine: the risk that … Putin might use nuclear weapons in Europe. The recent massive, disproportionate missile attacks launched against […]
» Read more
“Putin has made it clear that the Kremlin hopes to end the ‘special military operation’ as quickly as possible. If Zelensky does not want to stop his counteroffensive and resume talks, then the Kremlin believes it must convince his Western partners to force him.” “Moscow desperately needs to stop Ukraine’s counteroffensive. Russian troops are losing their combat effectiveness, barely hanging […]
» Read more
(Russia Matters – russiamatters.org – Graham Allison – Oct. 4, 2022) This is a summary of an article originally published by Arms Control Today.The author, Douglas Dillon Professor of Government at Harvard University’s Kennedy School of Government, writes: “October marks the 60th anniversary of the most dangerous crisis in recorded history. In October 1962, U.S. President John Kennedy faced off with […]
» Read more
“… The first miscalculation was the overestimation of the Russian military’s strength and effectiveness. … Putin apparently had been led to believe that the war would be over after a 72-hour blitzkrieg, Kyiv would fall, and Zelensky would surrender or flee and be replaced by a puppet government …. But the Russian military performed much worse than Putin (and apparently […]
» Read more
“In a gathering Cold War atmosphere, American officials are gaming out responses should Russia resort to battlefield nuclear weapons.” “For the first time since the Cuban Missile Crisis in October 1962, top government leaders in Moscow are making explicit nuclear threats and officials in Washington are gaming out scenarios should … Putin decide to use a tactical nuclear weapon to […]
» Read more
“The longer the conflict rages and the more resources the Russian regime throws into the furnace of war, the more isolated Putin may become in his bid for nuclear escalation.” “… [A] fragile faith [held by the Russian elites] has been rocked by the humiliating Russian retreat from Ukraine’s Kharkiv region, the … partial mobilization that looks likely to become […]
» Read more
“What do President Biden and his national security team know that makes them take Russian President Putin’s nuclear threat so seriously? Seven inconvenient facts.” “… Russia … has a nuclear arsenal that can literally erase the United States from the map. … Reagan summarized most succinctly the profound consequences …: ‘a nuclear war cannot be won, and therefore must never […]
» Read more
(Russia Matters – russiamatters.org – Sept. 26, 2022) 1. Vladimir Putin’s public threat to use nuclear weapons in Ukraine must be received soberly if only because leaders occasionally do what they say they’ll do, according to Peggy Noonan. “American diplomats have believed Mr. Putin will never use tactical nukes because he’d fear the price. But they can’t know that, especially […]
» Read more
“… Putin has taken a new, perilous step: mobilizing his military reserves. Amid a string of battlefield setbacks — and the announcement of fast-tracked ‘referendums’ … to annex territory … occupied in eastern Ukraine — Putin also reiterated … threats to use nuclear weapons …. We asked experts across the Atlantic Council for their reactions …. The U.S. and Ukraine […]
» Read more
“… The sham, hastily organized referenda in … Luhansk and Donetsk … of the Donbas … and occupied territories of … Kherson and Zaporizhzhia … will inevitably lead to their annexation by Russia …. Although no major country is likely to recognize the annexations … as far as the Kremlin is concerned[] [t]hat provides a legal basis in the Russian […]
» Read more
“Ukraine’s top military chief warned … that a ‘limited’ nuclear war between Russia and the West cannot be discounted …. ‘There is a direct threat of the use, under certain circumstances, of tactical nuclear weapons by the Russian armed forces’ … Gen. Valery Zaluzhny wrote …. ‘It is also impossible to completely rule out the possibility of the direct involvement […]
» Read more
(Russia Matters – russiamatters.org – RM Staff – Aug. 3, 2022) This week, Russian President Vladimir Putin proclaimed in his written address to the Tenth Review Conference of the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) that he “believe[s] that a nuclear war cannot be won and must never be fought, and we stand for equal and indivisible security for all members of the world community.” Interestingly enough, there was no such […]
» Read more
“[Igor Vishnevetsky, deputy director of the Russian Foreign Ministry’s nonproliferation and arms control program,] on Tuesday twice repeated … Putin’s new message that ‘a nuclear war cannot be won and must never be fought,’ apparently trying to roll back on Putin’s warning after the Ukraine invasion that Russia is a ‘potent’ nuclear power and any attempt to interfere would lead […]
» Read more
“The Kremlin said Tuesday … it’s ready for talks with the United States on nuclear arms control even as Moscow and Washington have remained locked in a tense standoff over Russia’s actions in Ukraine. Commenting on … Biden’s statement that Washington is open for talks on a new arms control deal to replace the New START treaty after it expires […]
» Read more
(Russia Matters – russiamatters.org – RM Staff – April 28, 2022) This blog post is part of a new “Clues from Russian Views” series, in which we share what newsmakers in/from Russia are saying on Russia-related issues that impact key U.S. national interests so that RM readers can glean clues about their thinking.The words in the news: Speaking about the war in […]
» Read more
“Port city on verge of capture by Russian forces; Ukrainian president describes situation as ‘inhuman,’ urges more talks” “Russia called on the last Ukrainian troops fighting in Mariupol to lay down arms on Sunday … as it closed in on capturing the strategic port city after weeks of heavy bombardment. … There was no indication … that the city’s defenders […]
» Read more
“William J. Burns, the director of the Central Intelligence Agency, cautioned that he had seen no ‘practical evidence’ that would suggest such a move was imminent.” “[CIA] director [William J. Burns] said … Thursday that ‘potential desperation’ to extract the semblance of a victory in Ukraine could tempt … Putin … to order the use of a tactical or low-yield […]
» Read more
“As Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has stalled and its forces have pivoted to … the east, the war is entering a new, darker, and more dangerous phase. Mariupol provides a preview …. The Vladimir Putin who bombed the Russian city of Grozny into rubble … to ‘liberate’ it … who joined … al-Assad in razing Aleppo[] certainly has no moral […]
» Read more