JRL NEWSWATCH: “Russia Standoff Prompts Europe to Enlist U.S. Help Securing Gas” – WSJ

Gas Flame file photo

“With over 40% of the EU’s natural gas supplies under Moscow’s control, officials are scouring the globe for ship loads to redirect.” “… U.S. and European officials are racing to find short-term alternatives to refill depleted [European gas] reserves. More than two-dozen tankers are en route from the U.S. to Europe, lured by high [EU] gas prices …. Another 33 […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Russia keeps door open after U.S. rejects key security demands” – Reuters

Map of Ukraine, Including Crimea, and Neighbors, Including Russia

“… The nuanced Kremlin reaction made clear that Russia was not rejecting the U.S. and NATO responses out of hand or closing the door to diplomacy. … [W]ritten U.S. and NATO responses were not made public, but both had already rejected [various] demands while expressing willingness to engage on other issues such as arms control, confidence-building measures and limits on […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “The guns of January; As war looms larger, what are Russia’s military options in Ukraine?” – The Economist

Map of Ukraine, Including Crimea, and Neighbors, Including Russia

“The Kremlin’s aim would probably be to shatter Ukrainian military power and dictate terms.” “… Even with [various] advantages, Russia would struggle to occupy [Kyiv], let alone … Ukraine, … as large and populous as Afghanistan. … [O]ver 300,000 Ukrainians have gained … military experience … [M]ost have access to firearms. … [T]he Pentagon and CIA [reportedly] would both support […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Russia denies looking for pretext to invade Ukraine” – AP

Map of Commonwealth of Independent States, European Portion

According to the White House, U.S. intelligence officials believe Russia has deployed operatives to rebel-controlled eastern Ukraine to carry out acts of sabotage and blame them on Ukraine, in a ‘false-flag operation’ to create a pretext for possible invasion […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Ukraine’s President, Left Out of U.S.-Russia Talks, Picks Domestic Fights” – WSJ

File Photo of Zelenskiy Extending Handshake, adapted from image at a subdomain of senate.gov

“As Moscow seeks grip on Kyiv, Volodymyr Zelensky is pursuing charges against his predecessor Petro Poroshenko.” “… Firmly on the outside of international talks, Ukraine was buffeted by domestic turbulence Monday as … Poroshenko returned … from abroad to face charges of treason and financing terrorism. … Poroshenko denies wrongdoing and says … Zelensky is pursuing him as … a […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Energy Dependence Ties Europe’s Hands in U.S.-Russia Crisis” – WSJ

Gas Flame file photo

“Europe gets almost one-third of its natural gas from Russia, limiting its ability to penalize Moscow.” Europe’s growing dependence on Russian gas and oil is limiting [European] room to maneuver … and making [Europe] highly vulnerable … [if] escalation [occurs in the crisis with Russia]. … Western officials accuse [Russia] of withholding extra supplies in recent months to force European […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “No Ukraine breakthrough, but NATO and Russia eye more talks” – AP/ Lorne Cook

File Photo of Wendy Sherman and Sergei Ryabkov Standing In Front of U.S. and Russian Flags, adapted from image at state.gov

“The United States and NATO [at the NATO-Russia Council’s first meeting in over two years] rejected key Russian security demands for easing tensions over Ukraine but left open … the possibility of future talks with Moscow on arms control, missile deployments and ways to prevent military incidents …. That Russia’s delegation did not walk out … and remained open to […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Russia Suggests Military Deployment to Venezuela, Cuba if Tensions With U.S. Remain High” – WSJ

File Photo of Wendy Sherman and Sergei Ryabkov Standing In Front of U.S. and Russian Flags, adapted from image at state.gov

“Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Rybakov said Moscow couldn’t exclude sending ‘military infrastructure’ to the two countries as tensions with U.S. soar and says talks have stalled.” “… Ryabkov said Thursday that Moscow couldn’t exclude dispatching ‘military infrastructure’ to Venezuela or Cuba if tensions with Washington — which have soared in recent weeks over a huge buildup of Russian troops on […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Russia-Led Troops to Begin Leaving Kazakhstan in 2 Days — President” – AFP

Almaty file photo, adapted from image at state.gov

“… Tokayev said Tuesday that a contingent of Russia-led [CSTO] forces would begin leaving … in two days … the pullout … tak[ing] no more than 10 days. … [M]ore than 2,000 troops [were] d[i]spatched at the peak of the crisis … after armed clashes between government opponents and security forces and a looting spree [left] parts of the largest […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Where Does NATO Enlargement End?” – Creators.com/ Patrick Buchanan

NATO Meeting File Photo

“… NATO … Article 5 war guarantees … oblige the United States to wage war against Russia to restore … [the] sovereignty and territorial integrity [of NATO allies] if [they are] attacked. … Why would we commit to risk war with a nuclear-armed Russia on behalf of nations no one has ever regarded as vital interests of the United States  […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Donetsk counts conflict cost as Russia, U.S. to meet” – AP

Map of Ukraine, Including Crimea, and Neighbors, Including Russia

“While Russia and the U.S. are preparing to meet for critical strategic talks over Ukraine, residents in the rebel-controlled Ukrainian city of Donetsk claim the Ukrainian army started heavy firing on New Year’s Eve.” “… A 2015 peace agreement brokered by France and Germany ended large-scale battles, but frequent skirmishes have continued. The [OSCE] … has reported an increasing number […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “U.S. Rebuilt NATO to Face Down Russia. Putin Scrambled Those Plans” – WSJ

NATO Meeting File Photo

“Kremlin tests the alliance by undermining former Soviet republics, sowing disinformation and exploiting divisions.” “The U.S. and other NATO members have deployed thousands of troops and invested heavily in weaponry to rebuild the alliance’s front line facing Russia. Moscow has parried that strategy by opening up new fronts just beyond NATO’s reach. … Rather than confront NATO head-on … Putin […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Why The Kremlin Lies: Understanding Its Loose Relationship With the Truth” – Carnegie Endowment for International Peace

Tower and Building Inside Kremlin

Russian leaders have used deception for strategic ends in ways that shed light on their geopolitical goals […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Russia Thinks America Is Bluffing” – Foreign Affairs

Portion of U.S. Treasury Department Building Facade, North Side, with Sculpture of Alexander Hamilton

To Deter a Ukraine Invasion, Washington’s Threats Need to Be Tougher […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Kremlin: Russia-U.S. talks inspire no significant optimism” – AP

Wendy Sherman file photo, adapted from image at state.gov

“The Kremlin said Tuesday it saw ‘no significant reason for optimism’ …. The talks aimed at defusing tensions over Ukraine took place in Geneva on Monday and offered no sign of immediate progress. Moscow went in insisting on guarantees to halt NATO’s eastward expansion and even roll back the military alliance’s deployments in Eastern Europe — demands that Washington had […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “How to Get What We Want From Putin” – Politico.com

Map of Europe, adapted from image at loc.gov

Talks on European security underway between the U.S. and Russia will be difficult because the two countries don’t trust one another, not even a little […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Kazakh leader: Russia-led security group to pull out troops” – AP

Map of CIS Central Asia and Environs

“The president of Kazakhstan announced Tuesday that [the] Russia-led security alliance [Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), including six former Soviet states,] will start pulling out its troops [from Kazakhstan] … in two days …. Protests over soaring fuel prices erupted in the oil and gas-rich Central Asian nation of 19 million on Jan. 2 and quickly spread across the country […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Russia’s Putin Seizes on Crises to Assert Control Over Former Soviet Republics” – WSJ

Map of CIS Central Asia and Environs

“In tightening grip over neighbors, president seeks to signal that his country is a superpower to be both feared and respected.” “… The [Russian-led CSTO] venture into Kazakhstan, at the request of the country’s leader, follows nearly 15 years of Russian interventionism in Georgia, Belarus, Ukraine and elsewhere aimed at pulling [them] even closer to Russia … propping up [Kremlin-aligned] […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “U.S., Russia Hold High-Stakes Talks on Ukraine” – AFP

Map of Commonwealth of Independent States, European Portion

“… [H]igh-stakes negotiations come amid fears of a Russian invasion of … pro-Western … Ukraine … with Moscow demanding wide-ranging concessions from Washington and … NATO …. Monday’s [Geneva] talks … launch[ed] a week of diplomacy … after Moscow amassed tens of thousands of troops at the Ukrainian border …. RIA Novosti on Monday quoted [Sergei] Ryabkov saying he feared […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “U.S., Russia hold talks amid tensions linked to Ukraine” – AP

Map of Ukraine, Including Crimea, and Neighbors, Including Russia

“… U.S. and Russian officials launched special talks Monday aimed at defusing tensions over a Russian military buildup on the border with Ukraine, part of a flurry of diplomatic activity in Europe …. No major breakthrough was immediately in sight. … Russia has said it wants the issue resolved this month, but NATO is wary that Putin might be looking […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Russia and NATO: How to talk to Mr. Putin; Russia’s aggression towards Ukraine has created a chance to enhance the security of Europe” – The Economist

Map of Ukraine, Including Crimea, and Neighbors, Including Russia

“… Perhaps [Putin] wants Ukraine to fail because, were it to become a thriving democracy, it would … rebuke … his claim that Western values are unworkable in Orthodox, Slavic Russia. He may also intend to divide and weaken NATO … [and] to create an enemy abroad … to justify repression at home …. But … Ukraine is as populous […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Biden wants to turn Ukraine into a porcupine” – Washington Post

File Photo of Soldier Firing Javelin Shoulder-Mounted Anti-Tank Missile

“…. Russia is heading to Geneva with what amounts to an ultimatum: Unless … Putin gets security guarantees from the West, he’s prepared to invade. Biden administration officials say they want a diplomatic solution, but they’ve also been delivering warnings through public and private channels that an invasion would be bloody, protracted and extremely damaging for Russia. … The Air […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Kazakhstan Unrest and Russia’s Intervention Transform Ties With Moscow” – WSJ

Map of CIS Central Asia and Environs

“As violence grows, the Russian military deployment injects a new element into the crisis in the former Soviet republic.” “… Nazarbayev steered the country along two tracks[,] [a]t home, … strengthen[ing] … Kazakh identity and weaken[ing] Russia’s historic influence[,] [while, in] foreign and defense policy … hew[ing] close to the Kremlin, assuring Russia … Kazakhstan would always remain a strategic […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “NATO weighs Russia’s security offer to end Ukraine standoff” – AP

NATO meeting file photo

“… Much contained in … documents … Moscow has made public — a draft agreement with NATO countries and the offer of a treaty between Russia and the United States — appears to be a non-starter [for NATO] …. NATO would have to agree to halt all membership plans, not just with Ukraine, and end military exercises close to Russia’s […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Keep calm and carry on; Ukrainians are peculiarly relaxed about Russia’s troop build-up; Many have grown inured to a risk they can do nothing about” – The Economist

Map of Ukraine, Including Crimea, and Neighbors, Including Russia

“… Ukraine is deeply wary of threats to its independence, so one might expect widespread alarm … [over] 100,000 or so Russian troops at the border, and … [Putin] muttering … about ‘military-technical’ action. … [But] Ukrainians have weathered eight years of war against troops backed by Russia in … Donetsk and Luhansk, which have claimed 13,000 lives. … [T]hey […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Kazakhstan protests mark end of Nazarbayev era” – Financial Times

File Photo of Hillary Rodham Clinton with Nazarbayev

“Former president’s handpicked successor takes control of security forces and turns to Russia for help.” “… protests that have shaken Kazakhstan may mark the end of [81-year-old] Nursultan Nazarbayev’s long grip on power — but do not suggest the oil-rich central Asian country will make a smooth transition from autocratic rule. Nazarbayev had ruled the country for most of Kazakhstan’s […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Ukraine Is Only One Small Part of Putin’s Plans” – New York Times

File Photo of Vladimir Putin at Podium with United Russia Logo, Gesturing

“… The immediate aim, to be sure, is to return Ukraine to Russia’s orbit. But …. Putin’s design is grand: to refashion the post-Cold War settlement, in the process guaranteeing … Russia’s personalized power system. … Today, Ukraine is the jewel to fight for. But it won’t end there: Belarus, whose embattled leader relies on Russia’s support, could be the […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: In Kazakhstan, Putin Again Seizes on Unrest to Try to Expand Influence” – New York Times

Map of CIS Central Asia and Environs

“But a series of revolts against a pro-Russian strongman could also plant the seeds of rebellion at home, analysts say.” “… The arrival in Kazakhstan of 2,500 troops from a Russian-led military alliance amid … violent protest was the fourth time in … two years … Moscow has flexed its muscle in neighboring states — Belarus, Armenia and Ukraine being […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Toast of Emerging Markets in 2021, Russia Gives Pause” – Bloomberg

Cash, Calculator, Pen

“… For all the gains [Russia’s] assets … made in the past 12 months, a military incursion into Ukraine [reportedly] would transform the narrative instantly …. Unprecedented U.S. and European sanctions would leave Russia off-limits to many investors, rendering the benefits of rising commodity prices, record international reserves and the central bank’s hawkish turn all but irrelevant. … [T]ensions with […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “China and Russia team up to establish joint moon base” – Asia Times

File Photo of Surface of Moon with Earth in Distance, adapted from NASA image

China and Russia’s plans can be seen as a response to their exclusion from the U.S. Artemis Accords […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “U.S. pushes unity on Ukraine ahead of key Russia meetings” – AP

Map of Ukraine, Including Crimea, and Neighbors, Including Russia

Yet the severity of the response hinges largely on Germany, Europe’s biggest economy and a diplomatic heavyweight within the 27-nation EU […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “U.S. Catches Kremlin Insider Who May Have Secrets of 2016 Hack” – Bloomberg

File Image of Stylized Eye Surrounded by Binary Code

“IT executive Vladislav Klyushin’s journey into U.S. custody is a blow to the Kremlin, say people familiar with a Russian intelligence assessment of what he may have to offer” Bloomberg reports on the extradition from Switzerland to the United States of Russian tech tycoon Vladislav Klyushin, the highest-level Kremlin insider falling into the hands of U.S. law enforcement in recent […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Russia’s Military Buildup Near Ukraine Is an Open Secret” – WSJ

Artist's Depiction of Spy Satellite in Orbit, With Stylized Depictions of Lines of Site and Data Points, adapted from image at iarpa.gov

Satellite images, social media posts and flight-tracking data allow private analysts to track details governments once classified […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Putin wishes Russians happier new year, hails their strength” – AP/ Vladimir Isachenkov

File Photo of Vladimir Putin at Podium with United Russia Logo, Gesturing

“In a televised address broadcast just before midnight in each of Russia’s 11 time zones, Putin said the nation … has faced ‘colossal challenges … ‘ … Russia’s state coronavirus task force has registered … about 10.5 million confirmed infections and 308,860 deaths, but the state statistics agency … [using] broader criteria … has reported nearly 626,000 virus-linked deaths in […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Court shuts down another human rights group in Russia” – AP

Kremlin and River

“… [A]mid a sweeping crackdown on Russian rights groups, independent media and opposition supporters[,] [t]he Moscow City Court’s decision to shut down the Memorial Human Rights Center came a day after Russia’s Supreme Court revoked the legal status of its sister organization, Memorial, … that drew international acclaim for its studies of [Soviet] political repression …. Russian authorities previously declared […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Schiffty Character: Russia hoax booster and January 6 hawk Adam Schiff doesn’t let reality get in the way of his political goals” – The American Conservative

Adam Schiff file photo, adapted from image at congress.gov

“… Representative Adam Schiff was reported to have doctored a text message between former White House Chief of Staff Mark Meadows and Republican representative Jim Jordan in the ongoing investigations of the House January 6 Committee. This report should hardly come as a surprise. On the House floor, Schiff was confronted … for peddling the ‘Russia hoax.’ He responded by […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “No time for war: Russians see no chance of conflict” – BBC

Map of Commonwealth of Independent States, European Portion

The build-up of Russian troops on the Ukrainian border has led to fears of an invasion and all-out war. For most Russians there is little interest […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “More than 10,000 Russian troops returning to bases after drills near Ukraine – Interfax” – Reuters

Map of Ukraine, Including Crimea, and Neighbors, Including Russia

Citing the Russian military, Russian news agency Interfax states that more than 10,000 Russian troops have been returning to permanent bases after month-long drills near Ukraine […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Putin Denies Troop Buildup Near Ukraine Means Russia Wants Conflict” – Wall Street Journal

Map of Ukraine, Including Crimea, and Neighbors, Including Russia

“Leader accuses West of stoking anti-Russian sentiment in neighboring nation, warns against NATO expansion.” “… [Putin’s] comments … were a response to claims by the U.S. and Europe that Russia’s massing of tens of thousands of troops on its border with Ukraine is a prelude to an invasion of its smaller neighbor …. Putin has set Ukraine’s proposed [NATO] membership […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “NATO open to dialogue with Russia on European security demands” – Financial Times

NATO Meeting File Photo

“Moscow’s ‘red lines’ viewed as not credible, but pressure mounts to find diplomatic solution.” “… Western officials have in private rejected almost all of the demands as implausible, not credible and in contradiction to post-cold war treaties guaranteeing sovereign states’ rights to choose their defence policies. But they admit that closing the door on Moscow’s initial diplomatic offer could make […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Kremlin penetrates deeper into online world of Russians” – Financial Times

File Image of Laptop Computer, Tables and Mobile Device, adapted from image at energy.gov

“Pressure grows on foreign social media platforms after state-run group’s takeover of Russia’s Facebook.” “The takeover … of VKontakte … by companies tied to … Gazprom has the feel of a final act in a long saga of creeping state control over the company. … [T]he Facebook lookalike’s trajectory has mirrored … the Russian internet … from the freewheeling Ru-net […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Joe Biden threatens Vladimir Putin with gas embargo over Ukraine” – The Times (UK)

Map of Ukraine, Including Crimea, and Neighbors, Including Russia

“Don’t dare try another Crimea, he warns Russian president.” “… Biden has warned … Putin that the West will target Russian gas exports and deploy more troops to eastern Europe if [Putin] orders an invasion of Ukraine. … [T]he U.S. national security adviser[] said … this … likely … include[d] stopping … gas … through … Nord Stream 2 …. […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Why Putin Won’t Invade Ukraine” – Forbes/ Loren Thompson

Map of Commonwealth of Independent States, European Portion

“… Risk aversion. … Putin[‘s] operating style more closely resembles the behavior of … the cunning peasant who plays a weak hand well. … You break it, you own it. An invasion … would require Russia to occupy … a restive developing nation … recovering from … war. … [a costly] burden … persist[ing] indefinitely …. Galvanizing NATO. [pushing Western […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “CIA Chief Says Intelligence Agencies Haven’t Concluded Russia Will Invade Ukraine” – WSJ

Map of Ukraine, Including Crimea, and Neighbors, Including Russia

Russian President Putin is assembling a potent military force and may see a chance to act this winter, William Burns says […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “U.S. intelligence-sharing convinces allies of Russian threat to Ukraine” – Financial Times

Map of Ukraine, Including Crimea, and Neighbors, Including Russia

Skeptical capitals including Berlin persuaded of the need to draw up threat of robust sanctions […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “U.S. Hope for Iran Nuclear Talks Now Rests on China, Russia” – WSJ

Iran Map and Flag

“Beijing has greater economic clout and more aggressive foreign policy than during original talks for 2015 deal.” “… Even as U.S. tensions mount with Russia … and … China … Western officials acknowledge that the fastest route to increasing economic and political pressure on Tehran’s new hard-line government runs through Moscow and especially Beijing. China helped Iran stabilize its economy […]

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