Sberbank forecasts Russian GDP to contract 0.5% in 2016 – Gref

MOSCOW. Sept 3 (Interfax) – Sberbank of Russia (MOEX: SBER) expects Russian GDP to contract 0.5% in 2016, bank President and CEO German Gref said on Rossiya 24 television.

“Our most realistic forecast assumes economic growth will be negative 0.5%. We do not for now see any sources of growth that would produce serious recovery next year,” Gref said.

The second half of 2015 and the first half of 2016 will be difficult for the banking sector, but “after that, we see stabilization,” he said.

Oil prices will determine the macroeconomic situation, Gref said, adding that he rejects the most pessimistic forecasts for the price of oil. Instead, he said, prices are likely to remain in the $50-$60 per barrel range “and that is the minimum level needed in order for us to continue developing.”

Gref also said he sees no outlook for high rates of growth in the coming three-five years without structural reforms and called for working to cut costs and raise the efficiency of operations.