Russian veteran opposition politician discusses policy, presidential ambitions

(Interfax – March 4, 2016)

Interfax journalists Vasiliy Antipin and Andrey Novikov interview with Yabloko leader Grigoriy Yavlinskiy: “Grigoriy Yavlinskiy: I will win elections from Putin; Yabloko founder has decided to return to big-league politics and describes his plans and his associates’ plans”

Moscow, 4 March: Grigoriy Yavlinskiy has decided to return to big-league politics. Yabloko’s founder plans to fight for the post of president in 2018 even though his highest achievement was 7.4 per cent of the votes in the far-off year of 1996. The forthcoming State Duma elections, following which the party is counting on gaining at least 30 seats, will be a trial of strength for the Yabloko people. That task seems ambitious given that to all appearances Yavlinskiy’s team will not create any alliances with potential allies. The most the intractable Yabloko will agree to is a “nonaggression pact” with Parnas [People’s Freedom Party] in single-seat districts and the rejection of mutual attacks in public. Grigoriy Yavlinskiy told Interfax journalists Vasiliy Antipin and Andrey Novikov about his plans and his associates’ plans.

Presidential ambitions, Putin will lose in next polls

[Interfax] At the recent Yabloko congress it was announced that you would run for the presidential elections in 2018. Are you counting on beating Vladimir Putin?

[Yavlinskiy] Yes.

[Interfax] Even though his popularity rating at present is over 80 per cent.

[Yavlinskiy] That plays no part.

[Interfax] From what premise did you proceed when at the congress you spoke of possible early presidential elections?

[Yavlinskiy] In fact from Putin’s present rating. The economic situation from my viewpoint looks so bad that in a year’s time early elections could become a reality: Putin will want to hold them ahead of schedule so as not to wait for things to get even worse and to take advantage of his present level of support. Look. Last year the population’s real incomes fell by 10 per cent. What will happen this year? And in a year’s time? He has never held elections in a situation in which there was a downward trend, under conditions of a serious socioeconomic crisis. That situation is incomprehensible to him. The situation in the country will be very difficult and I would not like Russia to be plunged into chaos.

[Interfax] But Putin has the opportunity to manoeuvre, for instance to take steps which would lead to the lifting of the sanctions. That will automatically improve the economic situation.

[Yavlinskiy] No, he has no such opportunities. He will not return Crimea and will not move back from Donbass.

[Interfax] And your party and you personally will go to the elections under the “Crimea is not ours” slogan? Many experts believe that politicians who have not supported Crimea’s reunification with Russia have deliberately placed themselves in a losing position by leaving the “Crimea consensus.”

[Yavlinskiy] When, for instance, there are no affordable medicines with imported ingredients left in the pharmacies and it emerges that this was all because of Crimea, and people encounter this constantly and understand the reason, there will be big problems with the “consensus.” People are intelligent. They can sense this already. Already there is talk of this kind, not much talk so far, but talk has emerged by comparison with the situation two years ago. For instance, I cited medicines, but it will not only be a case of medicines. People will say: Why did we do that then? We were living comfortably enough and anyone who could would go to Crimea on vacation. But everything has become more expensive there now, either there is no electricity or no drinking water, or something else. Why are we paying this price? There’s your consensus for you. Serious mistakes are being made – and that’s all there is to it.

You know how rapidly people’s mood changes? At one time there was a consensus around support for Primakov, but he was removed from the post of premier and no one even gasped. The consensus ended there.

[Interfax] And from your viewpoint, how soon will this consolidation lose its power?

[Yavlinskiy] I do not know when and in what form it will happen. But I do not want there to be violence and bloodshed in my country. I want there to be civilized politics in the country, and that means we need an alternative which would not doom the country to crisis and chaos but would change politics.

[Interfax] And how do you intend to transfer Crimea to Ukraine? There was a referendum there, whatever your attitude toward it, and Russian institutions of power have been formed there and our Armed Forces are deployed there.

[Yavlinskiy] First it should be admitted that Russia acted illegally and violated international norms and the treaties we ourselves signed. Then it is essential to convene an international conference with the participation of the EU countries, Ukraine, Russia, and other interested states and work out a step by step plan for how to resolve this problem. It is not one man sitting in Moscow or anywhere else who will think up anything, it is a common solution that will be developed – without bloodshed, in a considered and correct manner.

Of course, it would be good to hold a referendum under international oversight in Crimea. But that is my personal opinion. What the conference will decide is another matter. I want my country to have internationally recognized borders. I want the people living in Crimea to be citizens of Europe with equal rights. But the most important thing is that this problem be resolved in such a way that Russia says: We are a European country, we are building our future together with Europe, on the basis of the same rules by which hundreds of millions of people live.

[Interfax] Have you discussed participating in the presidential and parliamentary elections with the Kremlin and have you enlisted the regime’s support?

[Yavlinskiy] I have not discussed it. But of course the Kremlin could destroy Yabloko if it so wishes.

[Interfax] Is an analogy with the 2012-model Mikhail Prokhorov not appropriate?

[Yavlinskiy] No, the Kremlin instructed Prokhorov to take part in the elections and if you recall, in 2012 it removed me from the race. Prokhorov submitted his documents after the deadline, but he was registered and he took part in the presidential race.

Consolidation of democratic opposition, or not?

[Interfax] At the Yabloko congress you said that Russian society is in a state of political apathy. Yet you too are to blame for that. All the democrats’ previous attempts to unite and to put up a decent show at the federal elections have failed. Your voters have lost faith. Do you believe that you will succeed in reaching agreement this time?

[Yavlinskiy] We are undoubtedly answerable to our voters. They are interested primarily in the country’s urgent problems and in the future, not in political mergers and takeovers. We will do everything possible and necessary. Talks are currently under way.

[Interfax] But still, what forms of cooperation are being discussed?

[Yavlinskiy] Any questions can be discussed at the talks. Back in January we formulated our coalition proposals. Have you read them? In addition our chairperson, in response to the famous letter from a number of respected citizens, stressed that it is essential to make things clear: We need to know whether the Parnas participants are indeed prepared to renounce membership of their party and join ours so that they are included on the election lists.

They reply that they are not prepared to do so. They say: Let’s make a single party. But that is not possible technically, within three months, and no way is it possible politically. It is im-poss-ible! So Yabloko and Parnas will submit two separate lists at the elections. In that case we are prepared to agree on apportioning candidates in single-seat districts so that they do not compete with each other. Then there is the renunciation of mutual criticism during the campaign and joint participation in monitoring the elections. That’s all. We will do everything possible.

It should not be forgotten that we also have a memorandum in which we must agree to certain things – recognizing, for instance, that Crimea was annexed and that we see the system of merging business and power as unacceptable, that the Bolsheviks were criminals, and so forth. You must understand that we exist for the sake of these principles as a political party. If you want to be with us, we will be happy, but let’s reach agreement on fundamental issues.

Everyone is talking about amalgamation. We are in favour of it. You know that Yabloko was created as a union of the Christian Democratic Party, the Republican Party, and the Social Democratic Party and later Green Russia joined us. Yabloko unites people of different views and our official ideology is social liberalism, but there are also social democrats, Greens, and liberals in our party’s ranks… There are 28,000 people! It is not for nothing that Yabloko was a public movement before it became a party. So we are a united democratic party.

[Interfax] Would Aleksey Navalnyy’s support give you more votes?

[Yavlinskiy] It would be good if Navalnyy were to support us, but so far he is in Parnas, he made that decision himself, he has some programme of his own. He decided he is with Kasyanov. They did not do very well in Kostroma (At the Kostroma Region duma elections last year Parnas collected 2.28 per cent — Interfax).

[Interfax] Slim pickings. But how many seats in the future Duma is Yabloko counting on?

Plans for upcoming parliamentary election

[Yavlinskiy] Our aim is to surmount the barrier unconditionally and have a faction of at least 30 deputies. But as you know, the Russian elections are something else… Yabloko got into parliament in 2003. Vladimir Putin congratulated us. But then they changed the figures. In 2011 the FOM [Public Opinion Foundation] exit poll gave Yabloko 19 per cent in Moscow but officially they wrote it was under 9 per cent.

[Interfax] But if you are defeated again, will you close down the political project called Yabloko?

[Yavlinskiy] No way! Unless they close us down by force, we will not close anything. We are a living party with real people and a team of professionals, not a synthetic project. The party will be 23 years old in the autumn.

It hurts to lose honest elections, but elections in our country are dishonest. Yabloko has no access to television or to financial resources and there is no independent court in the country for us to be able to resolve any disputes. Under utterly non-European conditions we are trying to behave like a European parliamentary party. In other words, we are putting on hockey kit and jumping into the swimming pool as a whole team to play water polo. Then they tell us: How slowly you are swimming. Well, of course we are swimming slowly, because we are playing a different game. But we will fight. People need an alternative. If there is no alternative, violence is inevitable. Our political struggle is in our view the only peaceful way of moving forward under conditions where the regime is making critical mistakes and failing to carry out the reforms that are so necessary. That is why we are doing this. And furthermore we believe that if voters can see that there is an alternative, the situation will start to change for the better.

And we also understand full well that 30 seats in the Duma will change nothing, but a different president will. So we view the fight for the Duma as a very important, critical stage in preparation for the presidential elections. Seats in the Duma are important, but we see the long term and the country’s future as far more important.

Domestic policy

[Interfax] You said that you do not have access to money. Earlier, unless memory fails, Yabloko enjoyed financial support from Mikhail Khodorkovskiy. Why are you refusing it now?

[Yavlinskiy] Primarily because we have different political views from him. In addition, in 2002-2003 he funded us for 18 months and we had the kind of experience we do not want to have again. That was more than enough for us.

[Interfax] And do your views also differ from those of Aleksey Kudrin?

[Yavlinskiy] My conversations with Aleksey Kudrin are always serious and interesting. Kudrin is an estimable man but as I understand it he wants to return to power one way or another and we want to change that power.

[Interfax] Perhaps Kudrin will return to power and put everything to rights?

[Yavlinskiy] He will not put everything to rights. That’s all, in that respect the point of no return has been passed. In the present political system economic reforms are impossible. That is the problem. The regime has taken the wrong path and has taken us so far that it is too late to reform anything.

[Interfax] In that case, what does Yabloko suggest in the sphere of the economy?

[Yavlinskiy] First of all we need an independent court, because more than anything it is necessary to defend rights of ownership. You need the certainty that nothing will be taken from you. Look at how they set about demolishing all the trading stalls. They said the documents for them were fakes.

For the economy to work, there must be the same law for everyone, and we need competition. The state companies should not dominate and have advantages over all the others. We need structural reforms, the diversification of the economy, the reform of the export industries – oil and gas. It is critically important to build up internal demand, but in our country the population’s incomes are falling.

So no programme is being enacted – not the 2020 programme, not the 2030 programme, or any other. In the present situation it is impossible because businessmen do not want to invest, they have no access to credit resources at sensible interest rates and, most importantly, they have no confidence at all in anything. At present no one can change that situation.

We need a fight against corruption. And the fight can be won only on condition of the replaceability of power. The regular change of power and free media are the most effective instruments for that fight. And all this is also utterly impossible in this system.

Foreign policy

[Interfax] You said that Yabloko is a party of the European type? Should Russia seek to join the European Union and NATO?

[Yavlinskiy] I believe that Russia is a European country and a very large part of European culture and European history. Russia’s future is linked to Europe, and integration with Europe is the highway for Russia in order to remain among the most developed countries. The political infrastructure which currently exists in the European Union is not geared to Russia but we do not need to join, we are a very big country. We do not want to be subordinate to European bureaucracy, we have more than enough of our own. But our rules of life, politics, and economic systems should be very close and compatible.

As for military organizations – that is an issue of secondary importance. But in principle I see nothing bad in Russia collaborating with military blocs for the same goal – preventing war. For instance, I have always supported a common Russian-European missile defence system.

In Soviet times the parity between the Soviet Union and the United States was achieved through a system of mutual assured destruction. If I am president, I will create a mutual assured defence system. And everyone will live far more peacefully. Russia’s security will rise dramatically.

[Interfax] Will that not be perceived in the West as weakness, as the loss of independence?

[Yavlinskiy] Tell me, do you know what our economy’s share in the world GDP is? I can tell you: About 1 per cent. And the Americans’ share? Something like 20 per cent. And the Europeans? About the same. That’s where our weakness lies! We have a small and very weak economy. That is what has to be put right and that is where I see my chief aim and chief task.

[Interfax] How do you assess the actions of the Russian Federation Armed Forces in Syria? Should we have taken part in the military operation?

[Yavlinskiy] I think that this is something expensive and futile. We do not have such extensive interests there. In addition, I am very worried that through our participation in Syria we are entering into confrontation with the huge Sunni world. After all, apart from Bashar al-Asad’s regime we have only one dubious ally in the region – Iran.

I believe that the president’s chief aim is to defend his country and there are no principles or ideas for whose sake you can put your own people in jeopardy. But here, on the contrary, it was a dangerous policy that prevailed. We will end up in even greater isolation and we are entering into confrontation with the international community. The Russian Federation should resolve the problems of the Middle East region and in particular the problems of the defence of Christians, the defence of minorities against genocide, together with other countries and not try to pursue a discrete policy with which we have already won ourselves another foe in the shape of Turkey.

I believe that politics means creating friends, not isolating the country. Citizens’ lives, interests, and human dignity are the top priority for any policy. You must understand that apart from Europe no-one needs us. So quarrelling with it and pursuing an anti-European policy is a serious mistake.

The mistakes which the regime in Russia is making will lead to very grave consequences. I see my task in formulating a different agenda for the entire spectrum of issues: for foreign, defence, economic, domestic, and nationalities policy. That essentially is my platform.

And most importantly I want to make people believe in the possibility of changes. We have to make a start, and life, life itself, will help us.

[featured image is file photo]