Russian pundits say Syrian conflict to last for decades

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(Interfax – Moscow, March 15, 2013) According to Russian political analysts, after two years since its beginning, the Syrian conflict has expanded to a regional level, which means that the situation in the Arab world will stabilize only after several generations.

“There is certainly a risk that the conflict will spread. It is quite obvious that the conflict is spreading and will continue to do so. There will be a very sharp escalation now. Nobody can predict how this will end,” first deputy head of the State Duma Foreign Affairs Committee and political scientist Vyacheslav Nikonov told Interfax.

According to the expert, even the West is now seriously concerned, because there is a clear understanding of consequences if radical Islamists succeed.

“There will be a very long and complex war of attrition, in which it will be very difficult for (Syrian President) Al-Asad to prevail. The alternative looks much worse. The only change is that the West’s active support for the (Syrian) opposition has been replaced by a more cautious attitude. There is understanding of consequences if radical Islamists succeed. Maybe countries that support the armed opposition (in Syria) will show more common sense,” Nikonov said.

The Syrian conflict is de facto spreading to Iraq and Lebanon, and is so irreversible that stabilization in the region is only possible at the end of the century, director of the Institute of Middle East Yevgeniy Satanovskiy said.

“The conflict has already spread. It is now spreading to Iraq and Lebanon. Prospects are clear: the civil war has entered an irreversible phase. And it does not matter now whether Assad is ousted or not, and whether he will be replaced by another Alawite leader,” Satanovskiy told Interfax.

“Communities are engaged in mutual massacre,” the analyst said. In his view, the conflict may continue for decades. “And this is largely thanks to Saudi Arabia, Turkey and the Western bloc. On the whole, what began as the Arab Spring will calm down in 70-80 years,” he said.

The processes taking place in the region indicate the beginning of the collapse of secular authorities in the Arab world, he said. “Everything to do with state power in the Arab world is collapsing, first of all the secular authorities. There is only Algeria left. If they finish with Syria, everything will split into alliances of tribes, clans and territorial entities. In effect, the entire post-colonial system is collapsing,” the analyst said.

The expert also believes that the Arab monarchies, including in Saudi Arabia, are unlikely to survive. “Yes, only the monarchical bloc is left. But for how long? Saudi Arabia is bursting at the seams. A collapse of Bahrain is quite possible. A stable system has been destroyed. One of the main conclusions from the events is that authoritarian and secular regimes have been destroyed in favour of their rivals in this competition, the Islamists,” Satanovskiy said.

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