Russian Economic Ministry revises capital outflow forecast up to $100 bln for 2014
MOSCOW. April 9 (Interfax) – Russia’s Economic Development Ministry has increased its capital outflow forecast for this year to $100 billion from the previous $25 billion, Deputy Economic Development Minister Andrei Klepach said at a Tuesday evening briefing in Moscow.
The outflow forecast for next year in the conservative scenario is increased to $50, in the base scenario to $40 billion. The previous forecast was for zero outflow in 2015.
Central Bank figures published on Tuesday show that net capital outflow from Russia by banks and companies jumped 80% to $50.6 billion in the first quarter of 2014 from $27.5 billion in the same period of 2013. However, this was less than the Economic Development Ministry’s projection of $60 billion-$70 billion for the quarter.
“With [forex] swaps this is almost $60 billion [for the first quarter]. Maybe $10 billion less [for the year], but for now this is within the limit of accuracy. We’re not going to change the forecast [for the year] for the time being,” Klepach told Interfax, commenting on the Central Bank figures and the possibility of a new revision of the forecast for the year in light of the lower that expected figure for the first quarter.
In the base scenario the ministry is forecasting zero capital outflow in 2016, compared to a previously projected inflow of $20 billion, and an inflow of $10 billion in 2017. The conservative scenario projects an outflow of $20 billion in 2016 and $10 billion in 2017.