Russian Deaths Stable over Last Seven Months but Russian Births Continue to Decline Catastrophically, Chernyshov Says
(Paul Goble – Window On Eurasia – Staunton, Dec. 12, 2022)
For the last seven months, the number of Russians dying every 30 days has stabilized, allowing the country’s life expectancy to recover from its pandemic lows; but the number being born has continued to fall catastrophically, pushing the total population of the country down faster than anywhere in the world except Japan, Yevgeny Chernyshov says.
In October of this year, 145,000 Russians died, according to Rosstat, the Nakanune journalist who writes frequently about demography observes, down significantly from 247,000 in October 2021 and down slightly from the average monthly figures during the pre-covid years of 2017-2019 (nakanune.ru/articles/120005/).
As a result, life expectancy in Russia has recovered to 73 years, close to the historic maximum of 73.3 years in 2019 and likely pointing to a new record in 2014, the journalist continues. That is the good news, but it does nothing to “improve the catastrophic situation with regard to births and the withering away of the population.”
Between October 2021 and October 2022, the number of births fell by 11 percent. Moreover, the total number of births so far this year – 887,000 – is eight percent less than for the same period a year ago, an enormous decline that the fall off in the number of deaths by itself cannot compensate for.
Some blame this on the military operation in Ukraine, forgetting that the number of births at any point reflect decisions nine months earlier. The war may depress birthrates in the future, but it hasn’t had the time to do so yet. Others blame the compulsory covid vaccinations which some think lowered fertility and others that it lowered sexual activity.
Current data don’t allow for a conclusion on this point yet, Chernyshov says. But the gross figures are troubling because they mean that Russia is on course to decline still further even though it has managed to keep the death rate of an aging population relatively stable over the last year.
[article also appeared at windowoneurasia2.blogspot.com/2022/12/russian-deaths-stable-over-last-seven.html]