“… Military aid has a well-deserved bad reputation. Large-scale [U.S.] attempts … to build partner militaries — from Afghanistan to Iraq to Vietnam — have cost billions … while failing to build effective partner forces. Yet the indirect approach[,] … done right, can deliver remarkable strategic effects, as … in Ukraine. While the bravery and resourcefulness of the Ukrainians surely […]
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“Brigades with Western arms make small gains against Russia’s defensive lines in occupied regions.” “… Russian forces have spent months preparing for attacks in occupied parts of the country’s south, where the Ukrainians would like to push through and cut the land bridge that connects Russia to Crimea …. Ukrainian officials have said little about … progress … but insist […]
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“Privately, U.S. and European officials concede that pushing all of Russia’s forces out of occupied Ukrainian land is highly unlikely.” “… [T]he new military drive will influence discussions of future support for Ukraine … [and] how to guarantee its future. … [U]nclear … is … what the United States, Europe and Ukraine view as a ‘successful’ counteroffensive. … Zelensky has […]
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“… Putin’s war against Ukraine has become the defining event of his years in power. Even if he rules for another quarter century, Russia’s president will forever be considered a war criminal. But the consequences of the war are even more far-reaching: it promises to leave a stain on Russian society and politics that will remain even after Putin is […]
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“… [T]his latest incident should be understood as yet another horrific atrocity in a long history of Russian colonial violence. … [D]ays before the destruction of the dam, a prominent Russian propagandist called for the destruction of ‘every living thing’ in one of Ukraine’s eastern regions in order to ‘punish and deter’ Ukrainians for resisting Russian occupation. This state news […]
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“With the debt ceiling done, attention turns to the challenges piling up internationally.” “Senior U.S. officials are convinced that future support for the Ukraine war — and … Biden’s global reputation — hinges on the success of Ukraine’s counteroffensive. Succeed and Western military and economic aid will flow. Stumble or fail to meet expectations, and that support will likely dry […]
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“Advancing Ukrainian troops must break through an elaborate network of Russian defences running hundreds of miles across the country … built in anticipation of Kyiv’s offensive. … [S]atellite imagery … has revealed the array of minefields, anti-tank ditches, and trenches lying ahead of … Ukrainian troops attempting to push south. The defences … [reportedly] are constructed in a ‘three-line system,’ […]
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“If Kyiv … regains significant territory, as … in the fall of 2022, it will have to decide what to do with people in those areas who worked with or otherwise assisted Russian occupation authorities and forces in their repression of local populations and propaganda. … Russia has been actively relying on collaborators to establish … control over … occupied […]
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“…. Ukrainian forces have a real chance at achieving victory …. The path to victory is anything but straightforward. But one way or another, it likely passes through Crimea. … Crimea represents a point of maximum leverage[] … [and] is exactly where Ukraine needs to make battlefield gains to bring this war to a successful conclusion. … A Ukrainian advance […]
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“… Ukrainian forces managed to overrun some Russian forces in the east around Bakhmut. … Russian forces, armed with anti-tank missiles, grenades and mortars, have put up ‘stiff resistance’ … dug into defensive lines … several layers deep in some areas and marked by minefields … [inflicting] a heavy toll on Ukrainian armored vehicles. … Ukraine’s Deputy Defense Minister Hanna […]
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“Ukraine’s domestic security service[, The Security Service of Ukraine (SBU),] said on Friday it had intercepted a telephone call proving a Russian ‘sabotage group’ blew up the Kakhovka hydroelectric station and dam in southern Ukraine. … [The explosion] unleashed mass flooding, forcing thousands of residents to flee and wreaking environmental havoc. [The SBU] posted a one-and-a-half minute audio clip on […]
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“[After militant incursions into Russian territory,] [c]ombined with … Moscow drone attack[s], it’s now clear … Russia’s war has come home to roost … The Ukrainians have also been stepping up their drone attacks on oil refineries, airfields, and other critical sites deep inside Russia. … [T]he Russians seem to be unraveling. … [such as with] the bitter conflict between […]
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“Even some who support the invasion and want to intensify the fight against Ukraine have become deflated about Russia’s prospects.” “… [D]eepening gloom … grip[s] Russia’s elite about … Putin’s war in Ukraine, with even the most optimistic seeing a ‘frozen’ conflict as the best available outcome …. Many within the political and business elite [reportedly] are tired of the […]
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“1. Avoid [bothsidesing] this manmade humanitarian and ecological catastrophe …. 2. Russian spokespersons claiming … Ukraine did something … is not … [describing] the real world. … * * * 5. [If citing Russian propaganda, include considerations of what has been said inside Russia itself.] … Russian propagandists have … long argu[ed] [in favor of blowing up] Ukrainian dams … […]
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“The United States learned of a Ukrainian plan to attack the Nord Stream natural gas pipelines three months before they were damaged … The Washington Post reported … citing [online] leaked information …. [washingtonpost.com/national-security/2023/06/06/nord-stream-pipeline-explosion-ukraine-russia/] The CIA [reportedly] learned last June, through a European spy agency, that a six-person team of Ukrainian special operations forces intended to blow up the Russia-to-Germany […]
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“Elena Kolbasnikova, a Ukrainian national who lives in the western German city of Cologne and has spoken out in support of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, argues that she has a right to freedom of speech.” “A Ukrainian national … liv[ing] in Cologne … hop[ing] to get a Russian passport …, Elena Kolbasnikova was looking at a [German] prison sentence … […]
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“Belgorod, Bryansk, and Kursk — known in the 1990s as the communist ‘red belt’ — are now a support belt for Putin’s ‘special operation.’” “In Russia’s Belgorod region, which borders Ukraine, 1,150 apartments in a single district were damaged last week in recent incursions and shelling. It might seem that the arrival of hostilities on Russian territory should prompt Russians […]
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“… Russia’s budget is murky — especially its military one. … However … consult[ing] … various experts[] … our own analysis … come[s] up with … 3% of GDP. … Three reasons explain why Russia is spending so little. The first is political. Many within the Russian government would like to continue to portray the war … as a ‘special […]
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“Moscow’s forces have spent months creating lines of physical defenses to impede Kyiv’s expected offensive.” “… Satellite images show that the Russians have constructed an elaborate network of obstacles—including antitank trenches, concrete barriers known as dragon’s teeth and layers of advanced minefields—in southern Ukraine, where Kyiv is expected to attack. For Ukraine’s long-awaited offensive to be successful, its troops will […]
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Discussion published by Lawrence Langer on Sunday, June 4, 2023 Russian History invites essays on the implications of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine for Russian history. Articles should address a significant problem in the study of Russian History, the state of the field and the historiography concerning this issue, and the significance of the topic for an understanding of Russian history […]
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(Russia Matters – russiamatters.org) Fighting flared up this week between Russian and Ukrainian forces, with the former bombarding Kyiv with missiles and drones and the latter reportedly sending pro-Ukrainian Russian fighters to stage incursions into Russia’s Belgorod region, according to FT and Bloomberg. Ukrainian forces regained control over 51 square miles of their land in the past month, while Russia […]
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“The Ukrainian military on Sunday renewed its plea for operational silence around a long-awaited counteroffensive …. Anticipation has mounted around what is expected to be a broad attack by Ukrainian forces to retake Russian-occupied territory in the east and south. … Kyiv’s Western allies in recent months have provided weapons, armour and ammunition for the counteroffensive, which military experts have […]
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“The War in Ukraine Hinges on One Man’s Thoughts and Feelings.” “Shortly after the West rebuked Russia for its 2022 invasion of Ukraine and imposed financial sanctions … Putin … put[] … nuclear forces on high alert. The Kremlin has issued many more nuclear threats, some oblique … some explicit …. Even before the war … Russia … reversed its […]
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“Despite warnings that arming Ukraine will start a world war, President Biden continues to push the Russian leader’s limits — a strategy that brings risk and reward.” “… A key reason for brushing aside Putin’s threats, U.S. officials say, is a dynamic that has held since the opening days of the war: Russia’s president has not followed through on promises […]
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“In Moscow, it can be easy to ignore the devastating but faraway war in Ukraine. But that changes quickly when drones and anti-aircraft missiles start exploding in the skies overhead one morning.” “It’s been frustrating to report from Russia over the past 16 months, when the story has largely been one of prevailing calm, quiet, and outright normalcy, even as […]
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“… [T]here is a long-standing NATO policy … that countries aspiring to join NATO must first resolve their territorial disputes. … [L]et’s assume … that Ukraine’s counteroffensive plays out … with a Russian defeat. … [and] that Russia withdraws … from Ukrainian territory, including Crimea …. NATO will then have to deal with the Ukraine question … [with] three broad […]
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“Airstrikes on Kyiv were an attempt to undermine morale. Instead, they will have strengthened it.” “Putin is in a panic over the expected Ukrainian counteroffensive, which may already be in its preliminary ‘battlefield-shaping’ stage. He doesn’t know … when the offensive will be launched, where it will strike or whether it will succeed. … [H]e does know … that if […]
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“The attacks may be part of the highly anticipated counter-offensive.” “Ukraine’s armed forces are turning up the heat. In the past two weeks our analysis … has detected 907 fires likely to be war-related in Russian-held territory in Ukraine. … more than four times as many as in the two weeks before …. The last time something like this happened […]
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(Moscow Times – May 30, 2023) Russian officials and pro-Kremlin voices were split over Tuesday’s unprecedented drone attack on Moscow and its surrounding areas, with some downplaying the attack and others sharply criticizing the country’s defense capabilities. President Vladimir Putin called the incident a provocation by Kyiv but appeared calm in televised comments, saying that Moscow’s air defense systems “worked […]
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(Moscow Times – Brawley Benson – May 31, 2023) When Ukrainian forces launch their long-awaited counteroffensive this summer, they will be up against multiple lines of Russian fortifications stretching hundreds of miles from the Black Sea to Ukraine’s northern border. The military hazards include trenches and anti-tank obstacles, but Russian soldiers have also been busy laying thousands of landmines. “What […]
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“Kremlin officials said Ukraine’s allies should have condemned the strike, and argued again that its real war was with the West.” “A day after a drone strike on Moscow, Kremlin officials jumped on the refusal of Ukrainian allies to denounce the attack as proof that Russia’s real war was with the West. … While none of Ukraine’s allies went so […]
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“… [F]ighting in Ukraine is unlikely to subside any time soon; in Washington and Europe, officials are laying plans to add … to Kyiv’s defense capabilities over the next decade, assuming Russia’s aggressive designs will persist. [] Putin has … put Russia’s defense industry on a wartime production footing[] … [and] has indicated … he is willing to call up […]
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“… [T]he commander in chief of Ukraine’s armed forces ratcheted up speculation that a long-awaited [Ukrainian] counteroffensive … could be imminent. ‘The time has come to take back what is ours,’ said … Gen. Valerii Zaluzhyni [in an online video posted to Telegram] …. following weeks of speculation …. Zaluzhyni’s post made no explicit mention of an impending military operation […]
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(Moscow Times – Kirill Ponomarev – May 28, 2023) When animation artist Varvara returned to Russia earlier this year for the first time since fleeing abroad after the Kremlin’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, the main emotion she felt was surprise. Not by how much had changed in her homeland after over a year of war — but by how little. […]
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“Ukraine wants long-range missiles to regain Crimea and end the war. Why won’t Washington supply them?” “… Despite repeated pleas, the United States has not given Kyiv land-based missiles capable of hitting Russia. … Sustained Ukrainian attacks inside Russia’s territory could violate Putin’s red lines in a way that previous strikes haven’t. So could repeatedly hitting Crimea, the peninsula that […]
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“Vladimir V. Putin of Russia looks like a commander in absentia, treating the war in Ukraine as unfortunate but distant. His options have narrowed, but he is still betting on outlasting his foes.” “… [F]ighters stormed across the border into southwestern Russia … prompting two days of the heaviest fighting on Russian territory in 15 months …. Yet … Putin, […]
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“[S]enior [Putin] ally [Medvedev] … said … Friday the conflict in Ukraine could last for decades and that negotiations … were impossible as long as … Zelenskiy was in power. … ‘This conflict will last for a very long time. For decades, probably. This is a new reality,’ Russian Security Council Deputy Chairman Dmitry Medvedev was quoted as saying by […]
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“… Friday … the intelligence directorate of Ukraine’s Defense Ministry claimed … Russian forces would strike the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant, the biggest in Europe, and then report a radioactive leak … to trigger an international probe that would pause … hostilities and give … Russian forces … [needed] respite … to regroup ahead of [an anticipated Ukrainian] counteroffensive. In […]
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“… [Recently] two militias … oppos[ing] … Putin — the Russian Volunteer Corps and the Free Russia Legion — claimed to have ‘liberated’ several border villages [in the Russian region of Belgorod]. The groups appear to be based in Ukraine …. [and] Russia says … the militias are a front for the Ukrainian army; [but] Ukraine insists … they are […]
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“… The U.S. and other NATO nations are sending Ukraine tanks, drones and artillery … as [Ukraine] plans [its expected next] offensive. The West also recently pledged to meet Ukraine’s long-standing request for F-16[‘s], [a scenario still requiring] the Ukrainian air force [to spend months] … learn[ing] how to fly and maintain [them] …. … [T]his lengthy Ukrainian buildup has […]
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Russia’s military has been widely discredited and disparaged by the Western media since the start of its invasion of Ukraine. Russia was seen to have bungled the early phase of the war, suffering a series of setbacks and retreats. Defense analysts say Russia has adapted its tactics during the war, however, and a more structured, coordinated and reactive armed force […]
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“Whether Americans like it or not, this country will have little choice but to begin planning for an emerging world order.” “… Amid the seemingly never-ending catastrophe of the war in Ukraine, it’s become increasingly evident that China and India are likely to shape its final resolution. Russia can’t keep fighting without … [their] support … thanks to their refusal […]
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“Last weekend’s G7 summit must not be the high point of international support for Kyiv.” “… [D]iplomatic and military support offered … Zelenskyy at the G7 [summit] was a big boost …. [T]he danger is that it could be remembered as the high watermark of international backing …. The U.S. and the Europeans believe … their efforts have worked … […]
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“The nine-month battle for the small Ukrainian city of Bakhmut effectively came to an end … Sunday, as Russian forces finally captured the last significant Ukrainian strongholds …. Who has won and who has lost isn’t measured, however, in current control over the uninhabitable ruins … left from … a once prosperous city of 70,000 …. The answer will depend […]
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“The deluge of satellite imagery, drone footage, social media and smart phones has generated enough information to support any story you want to tell about what’s happening on the ground.” “… [T]wo relatively new contributions to the transparency of the Russo-Ukrainian conflict are widely available satellite imagery and social network posts. … [S]atellite data from private Western providers has lent […]
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“The $48 billion Ukraine aid package … Congress approved in December has about $6 billion left … U.S. funding for weapons and supplies could dry up by midsummer. … raising fresh concerns among lawmakers about … when the administration will ask for another major package and whether it will be enough. The funding, many members say, needs to continue … […]
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“Russian-language video on Telegram aims at Russians ‘on the fence’” The Wall Street Journal reports: “The [CIA’s] semipublic campaign to convince Russians disaffected by the war in Ukraine to spy for Washington has borne fruit, CIA officials said … as the spy agency released a new video aimed directly at Russian government officials. Since last fall, the CIA and [FBI] […]
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“Wagner mercenary leader Yevgeny Prigozhin has been engaged in very public criticism of Russia’s war effort. Experts say that it’s not a challenge to Vladimir Putin, but positioning for the post-war order.” “Russia’s most successful military leader in the Ukraine war … is not [even] a soldier …. Yevgeny Prigozhin is a former convict and Kremlin-connected entrepreneur whose private … […]
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War on Ukraine Drives Creation of New Research Program That Rethinks How We Study, Talk About, and Engage with Russia
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“Last September, when explosions damaged Nord Stream 1 and 2 … evidence of a culprit was scant. Some European governments suspected Russia. … Putin had been threatening to cut off energy supplies to Europe in retaliation for sanctions …. Russia … blamed America and Britain. Six months later American intelligence officials … [and] German and British news organisations[] have suggested […]
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