Russia Analytical Report, Jan. 23-30, 2023 – 4 Ideas to Explore

File Photo of Red Square, Kremlin, Environs, adapted from image at state.gov

(Russia Matters – russiamatter.org – Jan. 30, 2023) No Russian government would ever accept Ukrainian independence, George Kennan warned in a 1948 paper. The United States should not encourage Ukraine’s separation from Russia, but if it were to occur, Washington should not interfere even though an independent Ukraine would be “challenged eventually from the Russian side,” according to Kennan’s paper, […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “The Astounding Saga Of Hamilton 68 Illustrates Scope Of America’s Institutional Rot” – The Federalist

Twitter Logo and Faint World Map

“Thanks to Matt Taibbi’s most recent contribution to ‘The Twitter Files,’ we know the full extent of institutional corruption in the mind-boggling case of Hamilton 68.” “The media fell head over heels for a shoddy propaganda operation spearheaded by an ex-FBI agent. Twitter, internally, understood the operation to be partisan hackery but never spoke out. Organizations full of influential ex-government […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “A continent divided over response to war: Ukraine: the view from Africa” – Le Monde Diplomatique

Africa Map

“The UN General Assembly’s 2 March 2022 resolution condemning Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and calling for … immediate withdrawal … was adopted by … 141 votes out of 193[]. However … 17 of the 35 countries that abstained – and one that voted against – were African, and eight African countries did not vote at all. …. European commentators’ simplistic […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Liberal Columbia Journalism Review offers scathing indictment of New York Times’ Russiagate coverage” – Fox

File Photo of Donald Trump Waving Before Large Crowd with Trump Signs, adapted from image at whitehouse.gov

“NY Times, Washington Post, CNN spearheaded much of the Trump-Russia collusion narrative.” “… [L]iberal media watchdog … Columbia Journalism Review (CJR) published a wide-ranging retrospective of the media’s Russiagate coverage … examin[ing] several news organizations and their various roles throughout the Trump-Russia saga, leveling the most criticism toward The New York Times. ‘No narrative did more to shape Trump’s relations […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Why Ukraine Hasn’t Been a Boon to U.S. Defense Companies” – WSJ

Aerial Photo of Pentagon and Environs

“Soaring demand for munitions hasn’t translated yet into big sales for arms producers suffering from supply chain snarls, labor shortages.” “… [Q]uantities of arms the U.S. is sending to Ukraine are eye-catching: [such as] thousands of artillery shells and missiles, and hundreds of thousands of rounds of ammunition …. [with] [t]he total security assistance package[]now worth more than $27 billion […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Ukrainian troops are calling the U.S. military in the middle of shootouts with Russia for help fixing their artillery” – Business Insider

File photo of 88mm howitzers and troops in field, with shell in mid-flight, adapted from image at defense.gov

“The U.S. military is leading a team that is helping to repair Ukraine’s military hardware over the phone. These virtual exchanges often take place during battle, [AP] reported. Ukrainian troops, meanwhile, are pushing artillery systems to the limits to keep Russia at bay.” Click here for: “Ukrainian troops are calling the U.S. military in the middle of shootouts with Russia […]

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TRANSCRIPT: Senate Hearing on: COUNTERING RUSSIAN AGGRESSION: UKRAINE AND BEYOND [Victoria Nuland Testimony]

U.S. Capitol in Bright Sunlight

Senate Foreign Relations Committee Hearing on: COUNTERING RUSSIAN AGGRESSION: UKRAINE AND BEYOND January 26, 2023 Victoria Nuland Under Secretary of State for Political Affairs U.S. Department of State foreign.senate.gov/download/01/26/2023/012623_-nuland_testimony1 [Watch the hearing: foreign.senate.gov/hearings/countering-russian-aggression-ukraine-and-beyond] Chairman Menendez, Ranking Member Risch, and distinguished Members of the Committee, It is an honor to join you for the first hearing of the new Congress. It […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Latest Twitter Files show media, Dems relied on single source alleging ‘Russian bot’ activity: ‘It was a scam'” – Fox

Twitter Logo and Faint World Map

“Elon Musk says ‘shame on MSNBC’ for pushing misleading Russian bots narratives.” “… [T]he dubious source that … media and Democrats heavily relied on to peddle the false narrative of Russian bot activity on the [Twitter] platform. … [was] Hamilton 68, … spearheaded by former FBI special agent and MSNBC contributor Clint Watts[] [and] operated by the Alliance for Securing […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “The U.S. imports uranium from Russia. What if sanctions end that?” – Washington Post

“If sanctions are imposed on Rosatom, Russia’s civilian nuclear firm, it could cut off exports of uranium to the U.S. and European nuclear industry. What would be the impact?” “Russia’s state-owned nuclear power conglomerate, Rosatom, is suspected of supplying the Russian arms industry with components, technology and raw materials for missile fuel …. The military goods were sent to more […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Time is not on Ukraine’s side” – Washington Post/ Condoleezza Rice, Robert M. Gates

Map of Ukraine, Including Crimea, and Neighbors, Including Russia

“When it comes to the war in Ukraine, about the only thing that’s certain … is that the fighting and destruction will continue. … Putin remains fully committed to bringing all of Ukraine back under Russian control or — failing that — destroying it as a viable country. He believes it is his historical destiny — his messianic mission — […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Ukraine Is Already Paying Us Back; Our investments in Ukrainian democracy are paying off. Now is not the time to pull back.” – Politico

Maidan Square in Kiev, Ukraine

“Ukraine is … defeating the Russian army … crippling one of America’s most dangerous adversaries. … For decades, Washington has invested in supporting the institutions that enabled Ukraine to take a different path than Russia, … toward democracy and independence … away from autocracy and subservience, and to tackle corruption to serve citizens instead of fostering kleptocracy …. As … […]

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RUSSIALINK: “Russia Warns U.S. Against Launching ‘Decapitation Strike’ on Putin” – Moscow Times

Sergei Lavrov file photo

(Moscow Times – Dec. 27, 2022) Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov warned the United States on Tuesday against ordering a “decapitation strike” on President Vladimir Putin. Lavrov’s comments refer to an anonymous U.S. military official telling Newsweek back in September that a special operation “to kill Putin in the heart of the Kremlin” had been “front and center” among the […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Ukraine Won’t Be Using Patriot Missiles Anytime Soon After Omnibus’ Passing” – Newsweek

Patriot Missile Launch file photo

“The recently-approved Patriot air missile defense system from the United States is heading to Ukraine, but the timeline for … delivery and implementation remains vague. The missile defense system is the standout piece of an additional $1.85 billion in security assistance announced by [DOD] … Wednesday simultaneously as Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky visited Washington D.C. …. While … Putin dismissed […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Sanctions on Russia Are Working. Here’s Why.” – Foreign Policy/ Agathe Demarais

File Image of Artist's Conception of Globe with Curved Connecting Lines of Light Passing Through Space, adapted from image at fincen.gov

“The Kremlin’s ability to wage war is already constrained, but the worst is yet to come.” “… [I]ncessant debates over the effectiveness of sanctions … serve[] the Kremlin’s interests. … [W]inter fast approaching, Putin is betting that sanctions fatigue will soon set in. … [D]ata show[] that the people claiming sanctions are ineffective are wrong: Only nine months after … […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “EU Asks Members to Set Russia Oil-Price Cap at $60” – WSJ

Oil Well file photo

“Move is an attempt to squeeze the Kremlin’s oil revenues while keeping global supplies steady.” “The European Commission, the [EU]’s executive body, [reportedly] has asked the [EU]’s 27 member states to approve a … Russian oil [price cap] of $60 a barrel …. significantly below the international benchmark … Brent …. … [T]he [G7] … nations [would] need to sign […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Russia needs a respite, so the West must help Ukraine fight on” – The Economist

Map of Ukraine, Including Crimea, and Neighbors, Including Russia

“The mishap in Poland should concentrate minds on tackling the cause of the conflict” “The rocket that landed in Poland on November 15th, killing two people, was … not … from Russia. But the Ukrainian interceptor which fell to the ground would never have been launched were it not for Russia’s brutal aerial assault on Ukraine that day — its […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “U.S. officials think Ukraine could negotiate with Russia. Some Europeans aren’t so sure.” – NBC

European Portion of Commonwealth of Independent States

“‘There is clearly alarm among central Europeans that this is the beginning of a process that will force Ukraine to accept a deal,’ one analyst said.” “A split appeared to be opening this week among Ukraine’s supporters …. Some U.S. political and military officials have questioned whether the war could ever be concluded through force, with diplomatic talks the inevitable […]

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Press Gaggle by Press Secretary Karine Jean-Pierre and National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan En Route Phnom Penh, Cambodia [Excerpt Re: Ukraine]

File Photo of White House with South Lawn and Fountain

(The White House – Nov. 11, 2022) Q One last one. We’ve seen some more — the Russian pull-out in the Kherson region sort of play out on the ground over the last 24, 48 hours. Has there been any U.S.-Ukrainian contact, discussion, now after that pull-out — engagement regarding negotiations and, you know, sort of — everyone sort of […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Here’s the sad truth about election-related disinformation” – Washington Post

Multilingual Polling Place Sign from U.S. Election Polling Place

“Russian interference is so 2016. While this year’s midterms revealed that disinformation threats from foreign adversaries remain real as ever, they have also shown great danger right here at home. The elections went off … with relatively few snags, and few allegations of fraud (so far) compared with the aftermath of the 2020 presidential contest. Yet even before the vote, […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Kremlin says nuclear arms control talks hinge on U.S. goodwill” – AP

File Photo of Stealth Bomber in Flight

“The Kremlin said Tuesday … it’s ready for talks with the United States on nuclear arms control even as Moscow and Washington have remained locked in a tense standoff over Russia’s actions in Ukraine. Commenting on … Biden’s statement that Washington is open for talks on a new arms control deal to replace the New START treaty after it expires […]

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JRL NEWSBLOG: “The U.S. has admitted 100,000 Ukrainian migrants. It must keep going.” – Washington Post

Statue of Liberty Head and U.S. Flag, adapted from image at uscis.gov

“The United States has now met … [a] goal … to legally admit ‘up to’ 100,000 Ukrainians fleeing … Putin’s blood-soaked invasion. That … shouldn’t mark the end of … [a] commitment to shar[e] the burden of the … humanitarian nightmare …. The administration … should prepare for another 100,000. … [M]any … allies have shouldered a greater refugee burden […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “As Ukraine defends in the east and south, a U.S. official says Russia’s war effort is failing” – New York Times

Ukraine Map Highlighting Donbas, adapted from image at defense.gov, with photo credit to Peggy Frierson, DOD

“The Ukrainian military repelled attempted Russian advances in eastern Ukraine and pounded critical Russian logistical hubs overnight into Saturday as Russia continued to bombard towns and cities along the 400-mile front …. Ukraine made small but steady gains in … Kherson, a [southern] port city … where thousands of Russian soldiers are … largely isolated after Ukrainian strikes on … […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “What Putin Fights For” – Andrew Doris, Thomas Graham/ Survival (IISS)

Vladimir Putin file photo, adapted from screenshot of video at shareamerica.gov

“Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has reignited debate over the role of NATO expansion …. Robert Person and Michael McFaul dismiss Russian President Vladimir Putin’s NATO concerns as a ‘fiction,’ arguing that it was actually the expansion of democracy that threatened his autocratic regime. … Democracy and NATO expansion were not separate issues for Putin and the Russian elite, but mutually […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Hillary Clinton Did It: Her 2016 campaign manager says she approved a plan to plant a false Russia claim with a reporter” – WSJ

File Photo of White House with South Lawn and Fountain

“The Russia-Trump collusion narrative of 2016 and beyond was a dirty trick for the ages, and now we know it came from the top — candidate Hillary Rodham Clinton … [according to federal courtroom] testimony Friday by 2016 Clinton campaign manager Robby Mook …. [T]he Clinton campaign created the Trump-Alfa allegation, fed it to a credulous press that failed to […]

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Clues From Views: Will Russia Resort to Nukes in Ukraine?

Russian Mobile ICBM Parade File Photo

(Russia Matters – russiamatters.org – RM Staff – April 28, 2022) This blog post is part of a new “Clues from Russian Views” series, in which we share what newsmakers in/from Russia are saying on Russia-related issues that impact key U.S. national interests so that RM readers can glean clues about their thinking.The words in the news: Speaking about the war in […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Russia warns West: Don’t test our patience” – Reuters/ Guy Faulconbridge

European Portion of Commonwealth of Independent States

“Russia … warned the West that there would be a tough military response to any further attack on Russian territory, accusing the United States and its key allies of undermining European security by openly inciting Ukraine to assault Russia. Russia’s Feb. 24 invasion of Ukraine has killed thousands … displaced millions more and raised fears of the most serious confrontation […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Russia plans to sue over frozen currency reserves, central bank says” – Financial Times

File Photo of Assorted U.S. Cash, adapted from image at tsa.gov

“Western sanctions have cut off Moscow from nearly half of its foreign exchange holdings.” “… Two days after Russia began its invasion of Ukraine … G7 countries and the European Commission announced … sanctions on Russia’s central bank to block it from accessing its foreign exchange holdings. The central bank is unable to access nearly half of its $609.4bn in […]

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Fact vs. Fiction: Russian Disinformation on Ukraine

Map of Ukraine, Including Crimea, and Neighbors, Including Russia

U.S. Department of State: Fact Sheet: Office of the Spokesperson …. Below are examples of Russian lies about the current crisis and its causes – and the truth […]

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[U.S. Department of State] Report: RT and Sputnik’s Role in Russia’s Disinformation and Propaganda Ecosystem

File Image of Laptop Computer, Tables and Mobile Device, adapted from image at energy.gov

Russian state-funded and state-directed media outlets RT and Sputnik are critical elements in Russia’s disinformation and propaganda ecosystem […]

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Breaking the Impasse Between Russia and the West Over European Security

Map of Europe, adapted from image at loc.gov

(Russia Matters – russiamatters.org – Thomas Graham – Jan. 20, 2022) Thomas Graham, a distinguished fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, served as the senior director for Russia on the National Security Council staff during the George W. Bush administration. Last week’s intense talks between Russia and the West over European security seemed to end in failure. Moscow heard […]

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RUSSIALINK: “Ukraine Standoff Threatens to Derail Russia’s Domestic Battle Against Inflation; Even without invasion, the crisis is accentuating rising price pressures at home” – Moscow Times

Cash, Calculator, Pen

The standoff between Russia and the West over Ukraine threatens to compromise Russia’s domestic economic plans and accentuate the country’s cost of living crisis […]

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RUSSIALINK: “Baltic States Authorized to Rush U.S.-Made Weapons to Ukraine” – Moscow Times

File Photo of Soldier Firing Javelin Shoulder-Mounted Anti-Tank Missile

(Moscow Times – themoscowtimes.com – Jan. 20, 2022) The United States has given the green light for Baltic nations to rush U.S.-made weapons to Ukraine, with Lithuania on Thursday saying it hoped to deter “aggressor” Russia. A State Department official in Berlin, where Secretary of State Antony Blinken is holding crisis talks on Ukraine, said Washington was “expediting authorized transfers […]

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RUSSIALINK: “Biden’s Sanctions Threats ‘Destabilizing,’ Kremlin Says” – Moscow Times

Dmitry Peskov file photo adapted from image at kremlin.ru/wikimedia commons

(Moscow Times – themoscowtimes.com – Jan. 20, 2022) The Kremlin warned Thursday that U.S. President Joe Biden’s threats of sanctions if Russia invades Ukraine destabilize European security. “All these statements can contribute to the destabilization of the situation,” Interfax quoted Russian President Vladimir Putin’s spokesman Dmitry Peskov as telling reporters. “We believe that they don’t contribute in any way to […]

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RUSSIALINK: “Russia Says Still Waiting on Western Response to Security Demands” – Moscow Times

Sergei Lavrov file photo

(Moscow Times – themoscowtimes.com – Jan. 18, 2022) Russia is still awaiting the U.S. and NATO’s response to its sweeping demands for a new security settlement in Europe, Russia’s top diplomat said Tuesday as tensions between Moscow and the West over Ukraine continue to mount. Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said after a series of high-level talks last week that the […]

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RUSSIALINK: “Russian embassy, consulates in Ukraine operating as usual – Russian Foreign Ministry” – Interfax

Map of Ukraine, Including Crimea, and Neighbors, Including Russia

MOSCOW. Jan 18 (Interfax) – The Russian embassy and consulates general in Ukraine are operating as usual despite the attacks of Ukrainian radicals and the provocations staged by local law enforcement officers, Russian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Maria Zakharova said on Tuesday. “The Russian embassy and consulates general to Ukraine are working as usual. They are doing so despite the attacks […]

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RUSSIALINK: “A Week of Russia-West Diplomacy Ends in Deadlock” – Moscow Times

Map of Ukraine, Including Crimea, and Neighbors, Including Russia

The latest round of talks concluded, there is some disagreement about whether Putin’s December threat of a “military-technical solution” to the Ukraine crisis is probable or even inevitable […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Energy Dependence Ties Europe’s Hands in U.S.-Russia Crisis” – WSJ

Gas Flame file photo

“Europe gets almost one-third of its natural gas from Russia, limiting its ability to penalize Moscow.” Europe’s growing dependence on Russian gas and oil is limiting [European] room to maneuver … and making [Europe] highly vulnerable … [if] escalation [occurs in the crisis with Russia]. … Western officials accuse [Russia] of withholding extra supplies in recent months to force European […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Russia Suggests Military Deployment to Venezuela, Cuba if Tensions With U.S. Remain High” – WSJ

File Photo of Wendy Sherman and Sergei Ryabkov Standing In Front of U.S. and Russian Flags, adapted from image at state.gov

“Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Rybakov said Moscow couldn’t exclude sending ‘military infrastructure’ to the two countries as tensions with U.S. soar and says talks have stalled.” “… Ryabkov said Thursday that Moscow couldn’t exclude dispatching ‘military infrastructure’ to Venezuela or Cuba if tensions with Washington — which have soared in recent weeks over a huge buildup of Russian troops on […]

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State Department Press Briefing – Jan. 11, 2022 [excerpt with Victoria Nuland]

State Department Building and U.S. Flag

(U.S. Department of State Press Briefing –  excerpt with Victoria Nuland – WASHINGTON, D.C., Jan. 11, 2022) MR PRICE:  Good afternoon.  Very sorry for the delay, but as you can see, we have a special guest joining us today for the second time, at least in this current iteration.  She is no stranger to all of you.  Victoria Nuland, the Under Secretary of State […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Where Does NATO Enlargement End?” – Creators.com/ Patrick Buchanan

NATO Meeting File Photo

“… NATO … Article 5 war guarantees … oblige the United States to wage war against Russia to restore … [the] sovereignty and territorial integrity [of NATO allies] if [they are] attacked. … Why would we commit to risk war with a nuclear-armed Russia on behalf of nations no one has ever regarded as vital interests of the United States  […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Donetsk counts conflict cost as Russia, U.S. to meet” – AP

Map of Ukraine, Including Crimea, and Neighbors, Including Russia

“While Russia and the U.S. are preparing to meet for critical strategic talks over Ukraine, residents in the rebel-controlled Ukrainian city of Donetsk claim the Ukrainian army started heavy firing on New Year’s Eve.” “… A 2015 peace agreement brokered by France and Germany ended large-scale battles, but frequent skirmishes have continued. The [OSCE] … has reported an increasing number […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “U.S. Rebuilt NATO to Face Down Russia. Putin Scrambled Those Plans” – WSJ

NATO Meeting File Photo

“Kremlin tests the alliance by undermining former Soviet republics, sowing disinformation and exploiting divisions.” “The U.S. and other NATO members have deployed thousands of troops and invested heavily in weaponry to rebuild the alliance’s front line facing Russia. Moscow has parried that strategy by opening up new fronts just beyond NATO’s reach. … Rather than confront NATO head-on … Putin […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Why The Kremlin Lies: Understanding Its Loose Relationship With the Truth” – Carnegie Endowment for International Peace

Tower and Building Inside Kremlin

Russian leaders have used deception for strategic ends in ways that shed light on their geopolitical goals […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “How to Get What We Want From Putin” – Politico.com

Map of Europe, adapted from image at loc.gov

Talks on European security underway between the U.S. and Russia will be difficult because the two countries don’t trust one another, not even a little […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “U.S., Russia Hold High-Stakes Talks on Ukraine” – AFP

Map of Commonwealth of Independent States, European Portion

“… [H]igh-stakes negotiations come amid fears of a Russian invasion of … pro-Western … Ukraine … with Moscow demanding wide-ranging concessions from Washington and … NATO …. Monday’s [Geneva] talks … launch[ed] a week of diplomacy … after Moscow amassed tens of thousands of troops at the Ukrainian border …. RIA Novosti on Monday quoted [Sergei] Ryabkov saying he feared […]

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Background Press Call by a Senior Administration Official on Russia

File Photo of White House with South Lawn and Fountain

(The White House – whitehouse.gov – Via Teleconference – 1:11 P.M. EST – Jan. 8, 2022) MODERATOR:  Hi, everyone.  Good afternoon.  And thanks for joining us on a Saturday. Today’s call will be on background, attributed to a “senior administration official,” and the contents will be embargoed upon [until] conclusion. For your information only, the speaker today is going to […]

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RUSSIALINK: “Russia rules out concessions at Ukraine talks with U.S.” – Moscow Times

Wendy Sherman file photo, adapted from image at state.gov

NATO chief Jens Stoltenberg, meeting foreign ministers of the alliance on Friday, said there remained real risks of a Russian invasion […]

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For Russia and U.S., National Security Must Be Embedded in Mutual Security

NATO Meeting File Photo

(Russia Matters – russiamatters.org – Robert Legvold – Jan. 6, 2022) Robert Legvold is Marshall D. Shulman Professor Emeritus in the department of political science at Columbia University. As senior Russian officials prepare for talks on European security with Western counterparts, three aspects of the latest crisis around Ukraine point to its seeming intractability, but also lay bare an elemental […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Russia and NATO: How to talk to Mr. Putin; Russia’s aggression towards Ukraine has created a chance to enhance the security of Europe” – The Economist

Map of Ukraine, Including Crimea, and Neighbors, Including Russia

“… Perhaps [Putin] wants Ukraine to fail because, were it to become a thriving democracy, it would … rebuke … his claim that Western values are unworkable in Orthodox, Slavic Russia. He may also intend to divide and weaken NATO … [and] to create an enemy abroad … to justify repression at home …. But … Ukraine is as populous […]

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