Ex-Russian Officials: Stagnation, Declining Living Standards Loom For Russians

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(RFE/RL – WASHINGTON, October 26, 2015) Russia’s economy will stagnate in coming years due to sanctions, low oil prices, and deeper systemic problems, former Russian officials say, but it’s unclear whether this torpor will strengthen political opposition to President Vladimir Putin. Vladimir Milov, a former deputy energy minister and current opposition politician, told an October 26 panel discussion that Russia […]

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Has Russia’s economy turned the corner?

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(Business New Europe – bne.eu – Ben Aris in Moscow – October 22, 2015) Things are pretty grim in the Russian economy, but some of the country’s leading economists are wondering if Russia Inc has turned the corner some 10 months after the biggest devaluation of the ruble since the 1998 crash. “September seems to have been the starting point […]

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The ABR (Anywhere But Russia) crew of fund veterans now punting in Pakistan, Iraq and Iran

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(Business New Europe – bne.eu – Jason Corcoran in Moscow – October 21, 2015) Dedicated-Russia funds have become a rare species in the years following the 2008-2009 economic crisis. The country’s subsequent low growth, its current recession along with tumbling commodity prices and political isolation over Ukraine have almost led to their extinction. But what has become of these fund […]

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Interfax: Russian authorities know how to take inflation under control, to reach plan by yearend – Shuvalov

Igor Shuvalov file photo

MOSCOW. Oct 21 (Interfax) – The Russian authorities know how to take inflation under control; by the end of 2015 it will reach planned levels, Russian First Deputy Prime Minister Igor Shuvalov said at the State Duma on Wednesday. “I can say that in terms of growth rates and inflation – which concerned us most of all within the macro […]

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Russia’s Ailing Consumers Keep Door Open for Rate Cuts

Elvira Nabiullina file photo

(Bloomberg – bloomberg.com – Ott Ummelas, Anna Andrianova – October 18, 2015) There may be a silver lining for the Bank of Russia in another batch of grim consumer data. While Governor Elvira Nabiullina has set a course for monetary easing to match slowing inflation, policy makers last month paused their easing cycle for the first time in 2015. The […]

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Fitness training for dinosaurs; As austerity begins to bite, Russia’s state-owned firms are facing growing pressure to shape up

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(Business New Europe – bne.eu – Chris Miller in Moscow – October 15, 2015) Though Vladimir Yakunin was sacked from his post as head of state-owned Russian Railways back in August, the shock is still reverberating through Russia’s biggest and most powerful companies. A long-time friend of President Vladimir Putin, Yakunin was thought to be one of the most influential […]

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Standard & Poor’s Lowers Russian Growth Forecast

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(Moscow Times – themoscowtimes.com – Peter Hobson – October 16, 2015) Standard & Poor’s has cut its growth forecast for Russia, predicting that lower and more volatile oil prices will make it harder for the country to emerge from recession. The ratings agency said Thursday that the Russian economy would contract by 3.6 percent this year and grow by only […]

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BNE: Investors warm to a lukewarm Russia

File Photo of Outdoor Electronic Sign with Russian Exchange Data

(Business New Europe – bne.eu – Ben Aris in Moscow – October 15, 2015) [Charts here http://www.bne.eu/content/story/investors-warm-lukewarm-russia] The political rhetoric between the Kremlin and the West remains fraught since the start of the Russian bombing campaign in Syria, but investors have started to warm to Russia as an investment destination; Russian bonds are the best performing in the world year […]

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Poll: Russians adjusting to crisis, buying less expensive goods, food

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(Interfax – October 15, 2015) Russians have had to adjust their consumer behavior to the ongoing economic crisis. Some 62 percent of them have switched to buying cheaper food and goods (against 58 percent in January), the Russian Public Opinion Study Center (VTsIOM) said. The number of people who have been buying fewer goods and spending less on their entertainment […]

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Russian Antarctic Expedition Halts Research Due to Lack of Funds

Antarctica Map

(Moscow Times – themoscowtimes.com – October 15, 2015) Russia’s state-funded Antarctic expedition has had to halt its research due to a lack of funding, the TASS news agency reported Wednesday, citing one of the scientists involved in the expedition. “It’s not yet clear how long the research will be suspended for,” Ruslan Kolunin told TASS. He said that work on […]

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RBTH: Sochi forum: Sanctions curbing foreign investment in innovation in Russia

Skolkovo File Photo

Participants of the recent International Investment Forum in Sochi say that U.S. and EU sanctions on Russia are impeding international investment in innovative start-ups, with foreign companies not aware of what they can do under the new conditions. Meanwhile, according to Russian observers, several new innovative clusters may be created in Russia, including in Sochi. (Russia Beyond the Headlines – […]

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Sberbank CIB Ivanov consumer confidence tracker shows mood blackens in Russia

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(Business New Europe – bne.eu – Ben Aris in Moscow – October 8, 2015) With temperatures plunging more than 30C in a week, as an Indian summer gives rapidly away to snow, maybe it is no wonder the latest installment of Sberbank CIB’s Ivanov Consumer Confidence Index shows Russian are feeling increasingly glum about their lives. The thirteenth issue of […]

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Russian Trust in State Institutions Grows Amid Recession, Sanctions and Foreign Conflicts

Kremlin and Saint Basil's File Photo

(Moscow Times – themoscowtimes.com – October 8, 2015) Russians’ trust in almost every key institution of state has increased during the past two years, even as the country’s economy has tanked and freedom of expression has been eroded. A survey published Wednesday by the Levada Center, an independent pollster, found that public trust in President Vladimir Putin, the army, the […]

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RIA Novosti: Ex-finance minister forecasts more mass layoffs, fall in incomes in Russia

Alexei Kudrin file photo

(RIA Novosti – Moscow, October 4, 2015) Former Russian Finance Minister Aleksey Kudrin believes that the situation on the labour market in the Russian Federation is not improving so far and forecasts that the period of layoffs will continue for some time. “It has now become clear that the situation is not improving, and mass layoffs are starting in the […]

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Medvedev: Russia must cut dependence on oil revenues

Oil Wells File Photo

Speaking at a forum in Sochi, Russian Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev has revealed that oil and gas revenues have provided for less than half of the federal Russian budget for the first time, and said the country must focus on reducing its dependence on oil through reforms, stimulating domestic manufacturing and cutting spending. (Russia Beyond the Headlines – rbth.ru – […]

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Russian prime minister warns of tough financial situation, back to 3-year budget

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(Interfax – October 2, 2015) The Russian government faces a difficult task in putting together a budget which will be very tough, Russian Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev has said, privately-owned Russian news agency Interfax reported on 2 October. “The economic situation in the country has changed a great deal in the last year; clearly, living in conditions of 50 dollars […]

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Oil money, conflict and the age of diminished expectations in Russia

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(Business New Europe – bne.eu – Yuval Weber of Moscow’s Higher School of Economics – September 30, 2015) At the mid-June opening of Russia’s “military Disneyland” – officially titled “Patriot Park” – President Vladimir Putin took the opportunity to announce that 40 new intercontinental missiles would be added to Russia’s nuclear forces and that the theme park itself would be […]

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NEWSWATCH Reuters: When Kremlin candidate loses election, even voters are surprised.

Arm and Torso of Person in Brown Sweater Placing Paper Ballot into Ballot Box

Reuters covers a recent Russian regional election in which the ruling United Russia party suffered defeat. When Communist Sergei Levchenko beat the incumbent from President Vladimir Putin’s party to become governor of Irkutsk region in Siberia on Sunday, even the voters who backed him were surprised: the Kremlin doesn’t lose elections. The result is said to raise questions about the […]

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Bank of America Seeing Life Signs in Russia’s Foundering Economy

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(Bloomberg – bloomberg.com – Elena Popina – September 27, 2015) [Chart here bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-09-27/bank-of-america-seeing-life-signs-in-russia-s-foundering-economy] Bank of America Corp. is starting to see faint signs of an economic recovery in Russia. The magnitude of a slowdown in capital investment is easing, while corporate profits have been increasing, a combination that Vladimir Osakovskiy, the bank’s chief economist in Moscow, said could mark a […]

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Moscow Times: More Foreign Retailers Coming to Russia Despite Economic Crisis

File Photo of Cash Register with Drawer Open and Hands of Cashier

(Moscow Times – themoscowtimes.com – Anastasia Bazenkova – September 25, 2015) A dramatic decline in consumer spending in recession-hit Russia has not scared foreign retailers away from starting new business in the country, research published on Thursday found. In the three months from July to September, 14 new foreign retailers have set up shop in Russia – two more than […]

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Russia Plans $3.6 Billion Food Stamp Program as Poverty Rises

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(Moscow Times – themoscowtimes.com – September 25, 2015) The Russian government may spend 240 billion rubles ($3.6 billion) on a national food stamp program to support an estimated 15-16 million Russian citizens whose poverty has deepened amid an economic slump, the RIA Novosti news agency reported Thursday. To deal with an economic shock that has spurred inflation into double digits […]

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Most Russians Not Saving Money, Poll Shows

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(Moscow Times – themoscowtimes.com – September 24, 2015) Almost a quarter of Russians know someone who lost their job in recent months, but 80 percent of people are not saving any money, a survey published by the state-run VTsIOM pollster on Wednesday showed. Twenty-seven percent of Russians know at least two people who lost their jobs in the last two […]

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Russian Imports Plunge 39 Percent as Recession Takes Hold

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(Moscow Times – themoscowtimes.com – Peter Hobson – September 23, 2015) The value of goods imported by Russia from outside the former Soviet Union tumbled 39 percent in the first eight months of this year compared to the same period in 2014, as a deep recession cut into the country’s buying power. According to preliminary data from the Federal Customs […]

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Russian Options Narrow as Putin Looks to Exporters’ Windfall

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(Bloomberg – bloomberg.com – Olga Tanas, Andrey Biryukov – September 22, 2015) Russian President Vladimir Putin’s promises made as recently as last year may be the latest casualty of the collapse in oil prices. Putin instructed the government on Tuesday to study the possibility of steering into the budget some of the gains by exporters from ruble devaluation, without losing […]

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After the Boom: Moscow Malls Struggle With Fewer Customers

File Photo of Cash Register with Drawer Open and Hands of Cashier

(Moscow Times – themoscowtimes.com – September 22, 2015) Twenty-eight percent fewer customers are walking through the doors of the average Moscow shopping center than two years ago, according to data from market researchers Watcom cited by the Kommersant newspaper. The slump in visitor numbers comes after years of expanding consumer spending in Russia as an oil boom fueled an emerging […]

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Deutsche Bank confirms its retreat from Russia

Kremlin and Saint Basil's File Photo

(Business New Europe – bne.eu – Jason Corcoran in Moscow – September 18, 2015) Deutsche Bank, a lender whose ties with Russia span 134 years, will exit its investment banking business in Moscow by the end of year following allegations its bankers laundered money on behalf of its clients, it was confirmed on September 18. The German bank’s corporate finance […]

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Russian Consumer Rot Worsens as Wages Decline More Than Forecast

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(Bloomberg – bloomberg.com – Anna Andrianova – September 17, 2015) A slump in Russian consumption showed no letup last month while a drop in investment stretched into the longest in two decades, highlighting the toll on the economy from lower oil prices and the latest wave of ruble depreciation. Real wages declined 9.8 percent from a year earlier after a […]

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Russians’ Incomes Fall at Fastest Pace in 8 Months

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(Moscow Times – themoscowtimes.com – September 18, 2015) Russians’ wages fell in August at their fastest pace since the start of the year, according to official data published Thursday that also showed a continuing slump in capital investment, industrial output and retail spending. Russia’s economy has been shaken by a collapse in the price of oil since summer 2014 and […]

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Sanctions: Russia braces for long haul

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Russia, already facing recession and falling oil prices, prepares for the possibility that Western sanctions may remain in place for years to come. (Russia Beyond the Headlines – rbth.ru – David Miller, Jared Feldschreiber, special to RBTH – September 17, 2015) Russia is girding itself for the possibility of a long haul under Western economic sanctions, as officials in Moscow […]

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Central Bank in baseline scenario expecting oil price at around $50 per barrel in next 3 years

Oil Wells File Photo

MOSCOW. Sept 11 (Interfax) – The Central Bank of Russia updated the forecast that was made earlier on the average annual price for oil and now is considering it being close to $50 a barrel in the next three years as the baseline scenario. “Going forward, the economic situation will depend on the global energy prices and the economy’s ability […]

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Explaining Russia’s ‘new normal’

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(Business New Europe – bne.eu – Chris Weafer of Macro-Advisory – September 11, 2015) Chris Weafer is a founding partner of Macro-Advisory, which helps investors cut though the noise & focus on underlying trends, real political risks, & opportunities in Russia/CIS, Eurasia Union, & Mongolia. Follow him on @ChrisWeafer One of the slogans now regularly deployed to describe Russia’s current […]

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New lessons in economics: Russian parents struggle with school expenses as real incomes fall

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(Russia Beyond the Headlines – rbth.ru – Alexander Bratersky, special to RBTH – September 3, 2015) As Russian students head back to school, the country’s continued economic downturn and decline in real income is forcing some parents to make difficult decisions about educational expenses. Victoria, a single mother of a 13-year-old son, used to make enough money to live comfortably […]

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Sberbank forecasts Russian GDP to contract 0.5% in 2016 – Gref

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MOSCOW. Sept 3 (Interfax) – Sberbank of Russia (MOEX: SBER) expects Russian GDP to contract 0.5% in 2016, bank President and CEO German Gref said on Rossiya 24 television. “Our most realistic forecast assumes economic growth will be negative 0.5%. We do not for now see any sources of growth that would produce serious recovery next year,” Gref said. The […]

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Russia Faces Reality With Prediction of Deeper Economic Slump

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(Bloomberg – bloomberg.com – Anna Andrianova, Olga Tanas – August 25, 2015) Russia’s government is starting to face reality. While insisting the worst of its recession was over, it cut its economic forecasts for this year and next amid the renewed plunge in energy prices and persistent sanctions over Ukraine. Economists said the revisions fell short of their estimates predicting […]

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‘Black Monday’ inflicts further damage on Russian markets

File Photo of Outdoor Electronic Sign with Russian Exchange Data

Amid turmoil on global financial markets, the Russian ruble fell to a historic low against the U.S. dollar on Aug. 24, while the key stock market index, the RTS, dropped 6 percent. Russian analysts say that there is little room for optimism while oil prices remain low. (Russia Beyond the Headlines – rbth.ru – Alexei Lossan – August 25, 2015) […]

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Sanctions not responsible for Russia’s falling GDP, say experts

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According to a new report by Central Bank analysts, sanctions against Russia have not played a significant role in the decline of Russia’s economy, with experts agreeing that low oil prices are principally to blame. (Russia Beyond the Headlines – rbth.ru – Alexei Lossan, RBTH – August 24, 2015) The introduction of Western sanctions against Russia is responsible for only […]

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Economic Crisis Empties Moscow Central Streets

Kremlin and Saint Basil's File Photo

(Moscow Times – themoscowtimes.com – Anastasia Bazenkova – August 25, 2015) Even though Moscow retail property owners are increasingly willing to offer favorable lease terms to clients, Moscow’s central streets continue to lose their tenants who are forced to close their outlets due to the economic crisis. In the first half of the year, the vacancy rate in prime locations […]

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How Next Round of Russia’s Disintegration May Begin

Russia Regions Map

(Paul Goble – Window on Eurasia – Staunton, August 24, 2015) In his poem, “The Fall of Rome,” W.H. Auden wrote that it could be signaled not by some dramatic event but rather by “a bored official” scribbling a note and leaving his office to go home, a reminder that enormous tectonic shifts often begin with small things that most […]

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If Putin Remains in Power, Russia Will Become ‘North Korea 2.0,’ Gudkov Says

File Photo of Gennady Gudkov

(Paul Goble – Window on Eurasia – Staunton, August 1, 2015) Kremlin claims notwithstanding, Russia has not reached “the bottom” of its current crisis because that crisis is systemic and not just the result of the decline in the price of oil and Western sanctions imposed in response to Moscow’s aggression in Ukraine, Gennady Gudkov says. All sanctions have done, […]

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NEWSWATCH BBC: Russian debtors despair as boom turns to bust

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The BBC covers the Russian economic crisis and the plight of Russians who took on debt during boom times only to face misery and potential disaster now. Millions of Russians took out loans during the economic boom years, but now they face crippling debts and the law is not on their side …. * * * … the Russian United Credit Bureau […]

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