JRL NEWSWATCH: “Putin’s administration staff ‘are starting the day with a bottle of vodka and Security Council’s Dmitry Medvedev is often drunk when he writes his apocalyptic threats of nuclear war'” – Daily Mail (UK)

Dmitri Medvedev file photo

“Sources close to the Kremlin say stress of Ukraine war is turning some to drink State banquets serve luxury cognac costing more than £6,000 a bottle Some Russian admin staff are said to be starting the day with a bottle of vodka” Click here for: “Putin’s administration staff ‘are starting the day with a bottle of vodka and Security Council’s […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Why Putin Will Never Agree to De-escalate; Regardless of Ukraine’s counteroffensive, Russia is bracing for a long war” – Foreign Policy

Vladimir Putin file photo, adapted from screenshot of video at shareamerica.gov

“As Ukraine accelerates its counteroffensive a… a rational person might conclude … 2023 must surely be the last year of Russia’s war against its neighbor. Russian military resources are depleted, Moscow’s long and bloody winter offensive in the Donbas has yielded meager results, and Russian society longs for the return of prewar stability. Logic dictates … the Kremlin has no […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “How Putin’s War Became Russia’s War; The Country Will Struggle to Reckon With Its Crimes in Ukraine” – Foreign Affairs

Vladimir Putin file photo, adapted from screenshot of video at shareamerica.gov

“… Putin’s war against Ukraine has become the defining event of his years in power. Even if he rules for another quarter century, Russia’s president will forever be considered a war criminal. But the consequences of the war are even more far-reaching: it promises to leave a stain on Russian society and politics that will remain even after Putin is […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Russians Are Unraveling Before Our Eyes; A wave of fresh humiliations has the Kremlin struggling to control the narrative” – Foreign Policy/ Alexey Kovalev

Kremlin and River

“[After militant incursions into Russian territory,] [c]ombined with … Moscow drone attack[s], it’s now clear … Russia’s war has come home to roost … The Ukrainians have also been stepping up their drone attacks on oil refineries, airfields, and other critical sites deep inside Russia. … [T]he Russians seem to be unraveling. … [such as with] the bitter conflict between […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Russian Elite Is Souring on Putin’s Chances of Winning His War” – Bloomberg

Vladimir Putin file photo, adapted from screenshot of video at shareamerica.gov

“Even some who support the invasion and want to intensify the fight against Ukraine have become deflated about Russia’s prospects.” “… [D]eepening gloom … grip[s] Russia’s elite about … Putin’s war in Ukraine, with even the most optimistic seeing a ‘frozen’ conflict as the best available outcome …. Many within the political and business elite [reportedly] are tired of the […]

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The Russian Idea Revisited

File Photo of Red Square, Kremlin, Environs, adapted from image at state.gov

(Kennan Institute – wilsoncenter.org/program/kennan-institute – William E. Pomeranz – June 6, 2023) William Pomeranz is the Director of the Wilson Center’s Kennan Institute, Some years after the Soviet Union’s collapse, President Boris Yeltsin initiated a national search for a new Russian idea. The past was too raw and controversial, however, to reach any consensus on or reconciliation as to what […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “De-colonising Russia and the independence movements threatening Putin” – The Herald (Scotland)

Russia Regions Map

“… The buzzword for the future of Russia is ‘decolonisation.’ For many people this means a challenge to the current state’s imperialistic mindset, in respect of both its neighbours and the minority nations inside its borders. For others, the term has come to mean dismemberment. … The current Federation has some 190 or so ethnic groups, and most are not […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Why Support for Putin’s War Is Rife in Russia’s Worst-Hit Regions” – Carnegie Endowment for International Peace

European Portion of Commonwealth of Independent States

“Belgorod, Bryansk, and Kursk — known in the 1990s as the communist ‘red belt’ — are now a support belt for Putin’s ‘special operation.’” “In Russia’s Belgorod region, which borders Ukraine, 1,150 apartments in a single district were damaged last week in recent incursions and shelling. It might seem that the arrival of hostilities on Russian territory should prompt Russians […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Interview – Marlene Laruelle” – E-International Relations

Marlene Laruelle file photo, from gwu.edu

“… Q: Where do you see the most exciting research/debates happening in your field? I see a lot of exciting debates happening in the fields of both Russian Studies and Illiberalism. In the field of Russian Studies, there are mixed feelings, obviously, because of Russia’s full-scale war on Ukraine: a lot of pessimism regarding the future of conducting research in […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “How much is Russia spending on its invasion of Ukraine? By historical standards, it’s a puny amount. That tells you three big things” – The Economist

Cash, Calculator, Pen

“… Russia’s budget is murky — especially its military one. … However … consult[ing] … various experts[] … our own analysis … come[s] up with … 3% of GDP. … Three reasons explain why Russia is spending so little. The first is political. Many within the Russian government would like to continue to portray the war … as a ‘special […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Imagining Russia’s future after Putin: Possible outcomes of a defeat in Ukraine” – Chatham House

File Photo of Red Square, Kremlin, Environs, adapted from image at state.gov

“… If Russia suffered … defeat in Ukraine and … Putin were removed as president, by the end of 2027 core features of Russia’s state system would be recognizable on the basis of what we see today. But even a managed leadership succession would unleash considerable uncertainty, leading to a broad spectrum of plausible [political, economic and foreign policy] outcomes […]

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The Kremlin Finally Puts Together an Ideology

Moscow State University file photo

(The Kennan Institute – Fedor Krasheninnikov – May 30, 2023) Fedor Krasheninnikov is a well-known Russian journalist and political analyst. He has been a contributing opinion writer with the business newspaper Vedomosti and the independent online publication Snob.ru. Krasheninnikov also serves as political commentator for the radio station Echo of Moscow. During year 24 of Putin’s rule, and more than […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Russian State TV Guest Calls for Putin’s Removal” – Newsweek

Vladimir Putin file photo, adapted from screenshot of video at shareamerica.gov

“… [A] Russian state television [anchor] … quickly interrupted … opposition politician Boris Nadezhdin after he suggested … Putin be ousted …. [O]n the [NTV] program Mesto Vstrechi (Meeting Place), Nadezhdin, who has opposed Putin’s invasion of Ukraine, said that under the current political regime … ‘there is no way for us to come back to Europe.’ ‘We simply have […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Barely Noting War in Public, Putin Acts Like Time Is on His Side” – New York Times

Vladimir Putin file photo, adapted from screenshot of video at shareamerica.gov

“Vladimir V. Putin of Russia looks like a commander in absentia, treating the war in Ukraine as unfortunate but distant. His options have narrowed, but he is still betting on outlasting his foes.” “… [F]ighters stormed across the border into southwestern Russia … prompting two days of the heaviest fighting on Russian territory in 15 months …. Yet … Putin, […]

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Kissinger on Russia: Insights and Recommendations

Henry Kissinger File Photo, with Military Officer and Others in Background; adapted from image at defense.gov,; original image was DoD photo by Air Force Senior Master Sgt. Adrian Cadiz

(Russia Matters – russiamatters.org – Henry Kissinger and RM Staff – May 26, 2023) This evolving compilation of observations and policy ideas about Russia by Henry Kissinger, an eminent U.S. statesman who turns 100 on May 27, 2023, was the first in Russia Matters’ “Competing Views” series, where we share prominent American thinkers’ alternative takes on U.S.-Russian relations, Russia itself […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Who are the militias raiding Russia’s Belgorod region? They have links to Ukrainian military intelligence and, in some cases, to the far right” – The Economist

European Portion of Commonwealth of Independent States

“… [Recently] two militias … oppos[ing] … Putin — the Russian Volunteer Corps and the Free Russia Legion — claimed to have ‘liberated’ several border villages [in the Russian region of Belgorod]. The groups appear to be based in Ukraine …. [and] Russia says … the militias are a front for the Ukrainian army; [but] Ukraine insists … they are […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “German spy chief sees no ‘cracks’ in Putin system” – Deutsche Welle

Vladimir Putin file photo, adapted from screenshot of video at shareamerica.gov

“Disputes in Russian society do not pose a threat to Vladimir Putin’s government, says Bruno Kahl, head of Germany’s foreign intelligence service. He argues Moscow has enough recruits and equipment for the war.” “… Kahl argued that public criticism of the management of the war amount to routine disputes within Russian society and do not pose a threat to the […]

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Nearly Three Out of Five Russians Say Religion Doesn’t Play a Major or Even Any Role in Their Lives, Levada Center Poll Finds

File Photo of Russian Orthodox Cathedral with Man in Religious Garb in Foreground

(Paul Goble – Window On Eurasia – Staunton, May 16, 2023) Despite the obvious tilt toward Russian Orthodoxy that the Putin regime has displayed especially in recent months, Russians as a whole do not see religion as an important part of their lives, according to the results of a new survey released by the Levada Center sociological center. While 14 […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Russia’s top mercenary leader turns on Kremlin. What’s behind rift?” – Christian Science Monitor

Yevgeny Prigozhin file photos, adapted from images at fbi.gov

“Wagner mercenary leader Yevgeny Prigozhin has been engaged in very public criticism of Russia’s war effort. Experts say that it’s not a challenge to Vladimir Putin, but positioning for the post-war order.” “Russia’s most successful military leader in the Ukraine war … is not [even] a soldier …. Yevgeny Prigozhin is a former convict and Kremlin-connected entrepreneur whose private … […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Isolated, out of touch, but clinging on: how Russians see Putin” – The Sunday Times (UK)

Vladimir Putin file photo, adapted from screenshot of video at shareamerica.gov

“A year on from the disastrous invasion of Ukraine, the Kremlin could be just one crisis away from collapse.” “… Putin is notorious for asking Russian historians how he will be judged a hundred years hence. With his invasion of Ukraine, he has ensured that he will be assessed a failure, an example of the way hubris can devour any […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “How Russians Learned to Stop Worrying and Love the War; The Pliant Majority Sustaining Putin’s Rule” – Foreign Affairs/ Andrei Kolesnikov

Aerial View of Kremlin and Environs

“… Those who fear Putin have either fled the country or are silent. The regime has a formidable arsenal of instruments to deploy against anyone who speaks out or otherwise expresses opposition. It has used the legal system to crush any dissent, handing down Stalinist prison terms to antiwar activists. It has invented its own equivalent of yellow stars to […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Russia Exiled Them. Big Mistake. Exiles from Putin’s Russia have a powerful role to play in what comes next in their country. It’s happened before.” – Politico/ Leon Aron

File Photo of Kremlin Tower, St. Basil's, Red Square at Night

“When it comes to regime change, there’s an important relationship between regime opponents inside the country, and exiles outside the country. This has played out over and over again in history, particularly in Russia. This dynamic will be important to whatever happens in Russia in the wake of … Putin’s ill-conceived invasion of Ukraine. … Putin’s invasion of Ukraine has […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Europe Needs a Strategy for Russia After Putin; Competing ideas about the end state of the war are striving for dominance” – Foreign Policy/ Bart M. J. Szewczyk

Map of Europe, adapted from image at loc.gov

“As defense ministers of NATO and other nations met … and tried to resolve … divisions over supplying Ukraine with the heavy weapons it needs to drive Russian forces out of its territory … there are very different visions of the end state of the war and the region’s future. Among European countries, especially, there are stark differences … [with] […]

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JRL NEWSWEEK: “Russia Could Collapse Into ‘New States’ After Ukrainian Victory: Economist” – Newsweek

Russia Regions Map

“A Ukrainian victory could lead to the fall of the Russia Federation as we know it, according to one European economist. … Given that Russia is currently divided into a total of 89 regions — including 21 republics, 6 federal territories, 2 federal cities (Moscow and St. Petersburg), 49 regions, 1 autonomous region and 10 autonomous areas — [the economist] […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “It’s High Time to Prepare for Russia’s Collapse; Not planning for the possibility of disintegration betrays a dangerous lack of imagination.” – Foreign Policy/ Alexander J. Motyl

File Photo of Kremlin Tower, St. Basil's, Red Square at Night

“Ever since Russia’s attempt to take Kyiv and install a puppet government failed in the early days of the war, a defeat for the Kremlin in Ukraine has looked increasingly likely. What’s stunning … is the near-total absence of any discussion among politicians, policymakers, analysts, and journalists of the consequences of defeat for Russia. … considering the potential for Russia’s […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Putin, Isolated and Distrustful, Leans on Handful of Hard-Line Advisers” – WSJ

Tower and Building Inside Kremlin

“Russia’s president built a power structure designed to deliver him the information he wants to hear, feeding into his miscalculations on the Ukraine war.” “… [Putin reportedly] seemed to have limited understanding of the reality of the situation [in a particular location] …. His poorly equipped front-line troops were being encircled by a Ukrainian advance backed by artillery provided by […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “The Russian Empire Must Die: A better future requires Putin’s defeat — and the end to imperial aspirations” – The Atlantic

File Photo of Red Square, Kremlin, Environs, adapted from image at state.gov

“… The cultural weight of the past is heavy, and the habits of autocracy — especially the habit of living in fear — persist. The attraction of power is also strong. … and the next government of Russia might well be even more repressive …. Countries evolve, sometimes creating better governments … sometimes worse …. Empires fall: The Russian empire […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Who Is Vladimir Putin? Philip Short’s ‘Putin’ is an impressive biography but one that necessarily lacks the final chapters of the story.” – New York Times

Vladimir Putin file photo, adapted from screenshot of video at shareamerica.gov

“PUTIN, by Philip Short | Illustrated | 864 pp. | Henry Holt & Company | $40 … Short’s account is both perfectly and unfortunately timed, arriving just when we most need to understand Putin, yet missing the chapter that may yet define his place in history. … Short’s version nonetheless offers a compelling, impressive and methodically researched account of Putin’s […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “A dark state; Vladimir Putin is in thrall to a distinctive brand of Russian fascism; That is why his country is such a threat to Ukraine, the West and his own people” – The Economist

Vladimir Putin file photo, adapted from screenshot of video at shareamerica.gov

“… A decade ago [when][] Putin’s popularity began to wane[] [h]e … [started] drawing on … fascist thinking … caught up in a cycle of grievance and resentment that has left reason far behind. … culminat[ing] in a ruinous war that … defied the weighing of risks and rewards. … Without the rhetoric of victimhood and the use of violence, […]

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Once A Hope Of Russian Liberals And The West, Medvedev Beats A Bellicose Drum To Stay Safe, Relevant

Dmitri Medvedev file photo

(Article text Copyright © 2022 RFE/RL, Inc. Reprinted with the permission of Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, 1201 Connecticut Ave NW, Ste 400, Washington DC 20036. – rferl.org – Todd Prince – April 24, 2022 – article text also appeared at rferl.org/a/medvedev-liberal-to-bellicose/31818941.html) Former President Dmitry Medvedev’s opinion article in the daily Kommersant in October 2021, ahead of Russia’s massive military buildup […]

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Who’s to Blame? Sanctions, Economic Hardship, and Putin’s Fear of Color Revolutions

Cash, Calculator, Pen

(PONARS Eurasia Eurasia Policy Memo No. 767 – Stephen Crowley – April 18, 2022 – click here for PDF) Stephen Crowley is Professor of Politics at Oberlin College. He is the author of, Putin’s Labor Dilemma: Russian Politics between Stability and Stagnation (Cornell University Press, 2021), from which this memo is drawn. The sanctions now imposed on Russia—as severe as they are—are unlikely by […]

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RUSSIALINK: “Navalny Calls Ukraine War ‘Distraction’ From Russia’s Problems” – Moscow Times

Map of Ukraine, Including Crimea, and Neighbors, Including Russia

“I think this war is designed to divert attention from Russia’s problems, and it will only lead to greater impoverishment …. I consider those who unleashed this war to be bandits and thieves. I went into politics to fight this criminal regime of thieves.” […]

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RUSSIALINK: “For a Troubled Russian Region, Stalin is a Local Hero” – Moscow Times

File Phot of Attlee, Truman, Stalin at Potsdam, adapted from image at osti.gov

Pukhayev and other local Stalin critics are left casting around for explanations …. “Stalinism is our national Stockholm syndrome,” he said, referring to a psychological condition in which hostages develop an emotional bond with their captors […]

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Time Horizons of Russians Short and Bases for More Optimism in Short Supply, Volkov Says

Kremlin and Saint Basil's File Photo

(Paul Goble – Window On Eurasia – Staunton, Dec. 29, 2021) For six reasons, Russians do not have a long time horizon when it comes to planning, Denis Volkov of the Levada Center says on the basis of his conversations with participants of focus groups. And while their optimism about the future has risen over the past year, few are […]

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RUSSIALINK: “Foreign Policy Experts Map Russia’s Plans for 2022” – Moscow Times

Satellite

The Moscow Times asked 10 commentators for their predictions for the coming year […]

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RUSSIALINK: “Inflation poses serious challenge for implementation of national projects, risks of stalling should be reduced to minimum – Putin” – Interfax

Cash, Calculator, Pen

Moscow. Dec 15 (Interfax) – Russian President Vladimir Putin has called for reducing the risks of construction timelines on projects being built as part of national projects stalling due to inflation, including rising prices for construction materials. “I’m calling on colleagues to consistently monitor the progress of national projects, to analyze bottlenecks or delays in order to make additional decisions […]

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RUSSIALINK: “Moscow Court Begins Hearings on Closing Top Rights Center” – Moscow Times

File Photos of Law Books and Gavel, adapted from image at fjc.gov

A court in Moscow on Tuesday began hearings into a request by prosecutors to shut down a key center of Russia’s leading rights group Memorial […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: Alexei Navalny: “You wait all the time in prison”

File Photo of Alexei Navalny Marching on Street with Others in Background; adapted from image at commons.wikimedia.org with credit to Evgeny Feldman, subject to Creative Commons license; original image at commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:FEV_1795_(cropped1).jpg, with license information at creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/deed.en and creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/legalcode

“You wait all the time in prison. Any prisoner will tell you that the term breaks down into large and small waiting periods. In the endless groundhog day, there are certain regular events … It is clear that people here keep count of their total term too. Most prisoners can immediately answer “I have 583 days left.” But my prospects […]

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Self-Selection into the Public Sector When Corruption is Widespread: The Paradoxical Case of Contemporary Russia

Hand Pulling Cash from Envelope

[W]e found that despite Russia’s high levels of corruption, Russian university students with a propensity to act dishonestly or corruptly self-select out of public sector employment and into the private sector …. These findings present something of a puzzle […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Lenin would be baffled: Russia’s once-tame Communist Party is becoming an opposition force: The Kremlin and the party’s own leader are worried” – The Economist

Russian State Duma Building file photo

“… many Russian democrats, desperate to get Yeltsin’s successor [Putin] out of the Kremlin, find themselves voting for the Communists. … aware of the irony. … With nearly all forms of politics banned and [] Navalny behind bars, the Communist Party … [has benefited the most from Navalny’s] ‘smart voting’ strategy. … Had … votes been counted honestly in parliamentary […]

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Paul Grenier: “Link To Recording: Russia’s National Idea” [at Simone Weil Center]

Kremlin and Red Square file photo, adapted from image at state.gov

Subject: Link to recording: Russia’s National Idea (S. Weil Center) Date: Thu, 28 Oct 2021 From: Paul Grenier <psgrenier@gmail.com> In case you missed it, here are links to the recording of today’s seminar on the Russian National Idea: SimoneWeilCenter.org: simoneweilcenter.org/conferences On YouTube: youtube.com/watch?v=b_yMM7606XI Thursday, Oct. 28 What is Russia’s National Idea? A discussion with Marlene Laruelle, author of Is Russia […]

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RUSSIALINK: “Catherine Belton’s “Putin’s People” is Essential Reading: ‘How the KGB Took Back Russia and then Took on the West.'” – Moscow Times

Vladimir Putin file photo with VOA logo; screen shot from video still

(Moscow Times – themoscowtimes.com – Emily Couch – Oct. 17, 2021) The path taken by Catherine Belton’s “Putin’s People: How the KGB Took Back Russia and then Took on the West” is a well-trodden one. For those who have read Masha Gessen’s “The Man Without a Face: The Unlikely Rise of Vladimir Putin,” Ben Judah’s “Fragile Empire: How Russia Fell […]

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