According to a new report by Central Bank analysts, sanctions against Russia have not played a significant role in the decline of Russia’s economy, with experts agreeing that low oil prices are principally to blame. (Russia Beyond the Headlines – rbth.ru – Alexei Lossan, RBTH – August 24, 2015) The introduction of Western sanctions against Russia is responsible for only […]
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(Business New Europe – bne.eu – Chris Weafer of Macro-Advisory – June 22, 2015) After a relatively positive performance for Russia’s economy in the first quarter, the second quarter has brought more of a reality check, with sharply lower numbers across many categories reported in April and May. The preliminary GDP estimate for April shows a contraction of 4.2% year […]
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(Bloomberg – bloomberg.com – Olga Tanas, Paul Abelsky – June 19, 2015) The Russian economy is sailing along — in the eye of the storm or toward calmer waters, depending on who’s looking. Gauging the health of the economy during the first two days of the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum were President Vladimir Putin’s confidantes, past and present. Things […]
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Russia economy forecast to grow by 0.7pc next year, reversing negative growth forecast The World Bank is seeing some improvement in Russia’s battered economy, predicting it would shrink by 2.7pc this year and return to growth of 0.7pc in 2016.
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(Moscow Times – themoscowtimes.com – May 28, 2015) Russia’s economic recession deepened in April as the decline in gross domestic product accelerated to 4.3 percent year-on-year, quashing hopes that the worst of the crisis had passed, state development bank VEB said in a report released Wednesday. “The accelerating fall in GDP in April indicates that the crisis still hasn’t passed […]
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Despite a small rebound in world oil prices, “Russia is not out of the woods yet because the sanctions are going to continue to have an impact,” said Steven Pifer, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution, a former State Department official who served in Moscow and a former U.S. ambassador to Ukraine. http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2015/may/25/russia-recovery-talk-premature-as-sanctions-threat/
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(Business New Europe – bne.eu – bne IntelliNews – May 22, 2015) In the latest prognosis of Russia’s economic prospects by the big-league financial institutions, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has presented a revised and more optimistic scenario than some of its peers. GDP will fall by 3.4% in 2015 and return to growth in 2016, with a 0.2% increase […]
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The Wall Street Journal editors address Russia’s economic crisis and the West’s apparent unwillingness to step up economic pressure. The Russian recession is expected to continue unfolding. An oddity of recent weeks has been the attempt to argue that Russia’s economy isn’t as awful as it looks. Then along comes Friday’s report that GDP fell 1.9% year-on-year in the first […]
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New forecasts from the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development painted a marginally brighter picture for its 35-country region on Thursday, but predicted Ukraine’s economy would now slump by a more-than-expected 7.5 percent this year.
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(Business New Europe – bne.eu – May 14, 2015) The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) expects deep recession in Russia to have a larger-than-expected negative spill-over effect on countries with strong ties with its economy, the bank says in its latest Regional Economic Prospects report published on May 14. Russia’s GDP is seen contracting by 4.5% in 2015, […]
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(Bloomberg – bloomberg.com – David Tweed, Haslinda Amin – April 20, 2015) Russia’s economy showed signs of recovery in the first and second quarters amid a declining dependence on oil, Russian Deputy Prime Minister Arkady Dvorkovich said. “Oil prices are not as important to the Russian economy as before,” Dvorkovich told Bloomberg TV Monday at the World Economic Forum on […]
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(Russia Beyond the Headlines – rbth.ru – Alexei Lossan, RBTH – April 8, 2015) A report released by the World Bank projects no economic growth in Russia either in 2015 or 2016. This forecast is at odds with the figures from the Russian Ministry of the Economy, which predicts an economic growth of 2.3 percent as early as in 2016. […]
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MOSCOW. April 8 (Interfax) – The decline in Russia’s GDP in 2015 will not exceed 3%, industrial production will drop 1%-1.5%, and investment in fixed assets will fall 11%, Economic Development Minister Alexei Ulyukayev said. “We assume that this year under the most conservative estimate of the oil market situation – $50 per barrel – we will have a decline […]
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(Bloomberg – bloomberg.com – Leonid Bershidsky – April 2, 2015) [Charts here http://www.bloombergview.com/articles/2015-04-01/russia-s-recovery-won-t-have-to-be-oil-driven] Signs are multiplying that the Russian economy will not die a painful death, but is just taking some long-overdue strong medicine. The country posted unexpected growth in the fourth quarter of 2014, and it can now look beyond oil for drivers of recovery. Today, the Federal Statistics […]
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(Moscow Times – themoscowtimes.com – Howard Amos – April 2, 2015) The World Bank predicted Wednesday that Russia’s economy will contract by 3.8 percent this year and continue to underperform in the years to come amid the continuing impact of Western sanctions. Economic problems will also drive down real wages and push about 5 million more Russians into poverty this […]
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[“World Bank sees protracted recession in Russia” – Reuters – March 31, 2015] Reuters covers pessimistic forecasts by the World Bank of Russia’s near-term economic prospects. Russia faces a protracted recession as the impact of Western sanctions lingers and oil prices stay low, the World Bank said in a report published on Wednesday. In its baseline scenario, the bank expected Russia’s […]
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(Bloomberg – bloomberg.com – Leonid Bershidsky – March 27, 2015) [Charts here http://www.bloombergview.com/articles/2015-03-27/putin-s-economic-team-plays-houdini] Last week, the Russian central bank’s currency reserves increased for the first time since last July, showing that the economy may have moved past the panic caused by last year’s oil price slump. Perhaps Russia’s improving indicators will convince Western governments that economic sanctions are having no […]
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(Business New Europe – bne.eu – Mark Adomanis in Philadelphia- March 26, 2015) How is Russia’s economy doing right now? Pretty clearly, the answer is “not very well.” 2014 was the first year since Putin came to power in which, due to a combination of spiking inflation, plummeting oil prices and flat-lining growth, the average real disposable income actually shrank. […]
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(Business New Europe – bne.eu – MACRO ADVISER: Chris Weafer – February 17, 2015) Chris Weafer is Senior Partner at Macro-Advisory, which offers bespoke Russia-CIS consulting. Bill Clinton famously won the first of his two presidential elections using the slogan: “It’s the economy, stupid”. He recognised that while support for the first Gulf War had been strong, people were starting […]
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(Interfax – MOSCOW, Feb. 17, 2015) The Russian economy will enter a period of lengthy decline in 2015, the Economic Development Ministry said in its updated forecast. “If major geopolitical risks and hypotheses that oil will average at $50 a barrel persist, then GDP could fall 3%. According to forecasts, the economy will enter a period of lengthy decline in […]
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[“Morgan Stanley thinks Russia’s doomed” – BusinessInsider.com – Elena Holodny – January 30, 2015] Business Insider reports on Morgan Stanley’s pessimistic Russian economic forecast: Morgan Stanley has a short message for Russia: you’re doomed. This past week hasn’t been easy for the Russian economy: … Thursday … EU foreign ministers decided to extend … sanctions on Russia by six months. Additionally, the Central Bank slashed […]
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(Russia Beyond the Headlines – rbth.ru – Alexei Lossan, RBTH – January 21, 2015) Russian experts say that due to a six-year low in oil prices, Russia’s economy could contract by up to five percent in 2015. Moreover, the situation drastically differs from the 2008-2009 crisis when Russia was not as dependent on oil prices or under sanctions. In the […]
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MOSCOW. Jan 21 (Interfax) – The Russian economy will not see any growth and inflation will remain high in 2015 even if oil prices rebound to $80-$90 per barrel, economists at Renaissance Capital believe. At an oil price of about $60, which is the investment bank’s baseline scenario, Russia’s GDP will contract by 4.3% in 2015 and average annual inflation […]
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(Business New Europe MOSCOW BLOG – bne.eu – Ben Aris – January 16, 2015) “Russia’s GDP is likely to plunge in 2015. Indeed, it would be prudent to expect a slump on the order of 10%. In many ways, Russia’s financial situation is eerily similar to the fall of 2008, when then-Prime Minister Vladimir Putin called his country a safe haven […]
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(Interfax – January 14, 2015) The World Bank expects Russian GDP to contract by 2.9 percent in 2015, but edge up by 0.1 percent in 2016, the bank said in its January Global Economic Prospects report. The World Bank estimates that the Russian economy grew by 0.7 percent in 2014. The bank is forecasting that Russian economic growth will accelerate […]
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(Business New Europe – bne.eu – Chris Weafer – December 19, 2014) Chris Weafer is Senior Partner at Macro-Advisory, which offers bespoke Russia-CIS consulting. The key takeaway concerning the economy and the ruble from President Valdimir Putin’s press conference on December 18 is that the Kremlin does not have any strategy or plan to try and pull out of this […]
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(Business New Europe – bne.eu – Ben Aris in Moscow – December 19, 2014) [Full text and charts here http://www.bne.eu/content/story/russia-doomed-recession] 1.0 Economics 1.1 Economics overview The mood amongst Russia watchers is as black as it has always been in the midst of one of Russia’s major crises. The forecasts for 2015 are almost – but not unanimously – bleak. The crash of […]
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(Business New Europe – Henry Kirby in London – December 11, 2014) After months of downward pressure, the ruble went into near free-fall during the first week of December. From 36 to the dollar in early August, the Russian currency fell rapidly from 47 to 53 to the greenback in just a few days, amid rumours (later discredited) that the […]
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(Business New Europe – bne.eu – Chris Weafer – November 18, 2014) Chris Weafer is Senior Partner at Macro-Advisory, which offers bespoke Russia-CIS consulting. In a memorable speech delivered in late 1992, Britain’s Queen Elizabeth II described the year just ending as an “Annus Horribilis” as she referred to a year filled with misery and stress for the royal household. […]
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MOSCOW. Nov 13 (Interfax) – Russian GDP increased by 0.7% year-on-year in Q3 2014, the Federal Statistics Service’s (Rosstat) preliminary estimate published on Thursday said. Rosstat’s data coincided with the calculations of the Economic Development Ministry, which estimated GDP growth in Q3 at 0.7%. Rosstat has not published estimates for GDP growth in January-September. However, based on data for Q1 […]
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MOSCOW. Oct 24 (Interfax) – If current prices for oil persist in 2015, Russian GDP, retail trade, real incomes and investment will all decline, Ulyukayev said at a business breakfast hosted by Rossiiskaya Gazeta.” “If the current price of oil persists, then as soon as this year there will be practically no growth in real individual incomes and retail trade. […]
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(Business New Europe – bne.eu – September 25, 2014) Consumer demand in Russia, around half of its $2 trillion economy, and the key growth driver over recent years, is stalling over the crisis in Ukraine, according to a World Bank analysis of the economy. Consumption growth will slow to 0.5% in 2015 and 0.6% in 2016, down from around 2% […]
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(Russia Beyond the Headlines – rbth.ru – Vladimir Mau, special to RBTH – September 24, 2014) Vladimir Mau is the rector of the Russian Presidential Academy of the National Economy and Public Administration. Mutual sanctions are always extremely unpleasant, and the application of sanctions and the “hot” trade war between Russia, Europe and the United States can have no good […]
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MOSCOW. Sept 8 (Interfax) – The Federal State Statistics Service (Rosstat) has affirmed its preliminary estimate of 0.8% year-on-year GDP growth for the second quarter of 2014, the agency said. GDP was 17.697 trillion rubles in current prices in Q2. Rosstat published its preliminary estimate for Q2 in the middle of August. The Russian Economic Development Ministry estimated the economy […]
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(Interfax – September 8, 2014) The Russian economy is projected to grow 0.5 percent this year, and while this is not a very good figure, the situation in other countries does not differ much from Russia, Russian Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev said in an interview with Russian newspaper Vedomosti. “We have focused on significantly higher growth rates. Now we are […]
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MOSCOW. Aug 11 (Interfax) – Russian year-on-year GDP growth slowed to 0.8% in Q2 2014, from 0.9% in Q1, the Federal State Statistics Service (Rosstat) said in a preliminary estimate. The Economic Development Ministry estimated the economy would grow 1.1% in Q2. Rosstat will unveil more details in the middle of September. The Econ Ministry thought GDP would grow 0.1% […]
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(Moscow Times – themoscowtimes.com – Delphine d’Amora – July 14, 2014) In an effort to transform Russia’s oil-dependent economy into a sustainable engine of growth, the government has unveiled a series of legal and financial measures aimed at fulfilling President Vladimir Putin’s ambitious pledge to increase Russia’s labor productivity 50 percent by 2018. Approved Wednesday and published online Friday, the […]
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MOSCOW, May 29 (RIA Novosti) – Russian Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev warned Thursday that new pitfalls in the country’s economic development cannot be ruled out due to strained ties with Ukraine and possibly with other ex-Soviet states. “The next few years will be marked by continued instability and strained environment in some markets. New risks cannot be completely ruled out, […]
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ASTANA. May 23 (Interfax) – Any new shocks to the global economy have the potential to reduce Russian GDP growth in 2014 to zero, Deputy Economic Development Minister Andrei Klepach said. “If any shocks in the global economy occur, such as a drop in oil prices or further aggrava tion of the geopolitical situation, GDP could of course be near […]
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(Business New Europe – bne.eu – Ben Aris in Moscow – May 6, 2014) [Charts here http://www.bne.eu/content/russia-heads-toward-stagnation] The Ukraine crisis has been an economic train wreck for Russia. The outlook for this year was never good, but on April 30 the International Monetary Fund (IMF) argued the Russian economy is already in recession and a growing number of analysts believe […]
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(Bloomberg – bloomberg.com – Anna Andrianova and Andre Tartar – April 29, 2014) Russia faces a fifty-fifty chance of recession, the highest since Bloomberg started to track the measure, as the crisis in Ukraine raises the risk of further sanctions, according to a survey of economists. The probability of a recession over the next 12 months rose to 50 percent, […]
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(Interfax – April 8, 2014) The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has lowered its 2014 Russian GDP growth forecast from 2 percent to 1.3 percent. The IMF said in its latest World Economic Outlook (WEO) Update that the 2015 forecast was now 2.3 percent, down from the 2.5 percent the Fund was predicting in January. CIS economic growth might be 2.3 […]
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(Moscow Times – themoscowtimes.com – February 28, 2014) Deputy Prime Minister Arkady Dvorkovich on Friday said the country’s economy could accelerate to a growth rate of 4 percent next year, in stark contrast to the dour expectations of the Economic Development Ministry. The ministry sees the Russian economy struggling to rise above 3 percent growth for the next two decades. […]
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(Moscow Times – themoscowtimes.com – Alexander Panin – February 24, 2014) According to government predictions, state companies’ spending plans are likely to pull the economy out of stagnation toward the end of the year. Other economists, however, remain skeptical of these forecasts. Figures for January released last week did not give grounds for optimism, and recent news reports have said […]
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MOSCOW, February 21 (RIA Novosti) – A top Russian official sounded a bullish note Friday on the underperforming economy, predicting a return to robust growth toward the middle of this year. Deputy Economy Minister Andrei Klepach said at a conference in Siberia’s Altai region that the Russian economy was expected to pull out of its current stagnation in the second […]
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(Moscow Times – themoscowtimes.com – Natalya Krainova – January 14, 2014) The State Duma in the coming months will focus on legislation that will provide “stability” for businesses at a time of “extremely challenging” economic circumstances in Russia, Duma Speaker Sergei Naryshkin said Tuesday. “Today, almost in every strategic direction of the country’s development there are additional risks. They stem […]
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(Eurasia Daily Monitor: Volume 11, Issue 1 – Jamestown Foundation – jamestown.org – Pavel K. Baev – January 6, 2014) Seasonal festivities have been unusually subdued in Russia this year – families at every income level and of any ethnic composition are finding it difficult to forget their worries and focus on positive prospects for the coming year. One interval […]
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MOSCOW. Dec 30 (Interfax) – Private and state consumption accounted for 68.5% of GDP in the third quarter of 2013, up from 65.1% in Q3 2012, the Federal State Statistics Service (Rosstat) said. Household consumption accounted for 49.4% of GDP in Q3 2013, up from 47.1% a year earlier. State consumption rose to 18.7% of GDP from 17.5%. In absolute […]
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MOSCOW. Dec 20 (Interfax) – Russia needs to enact new measures to spur economic growth since the measures that have already been approved are insufficient, Deputy Economic Development Minister Andrei Klepach said at a briefing in Moscow on Thursday. “Those measures that have been approved are insufficient to accelerate growth. Therefore, I think that enactment of new measures is both […]
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MOSCOW. Dec 17 (Interfax) – The reasons why measures to support economic growth are not working and why interest rates are not coming down need to be analyzed, Andrei Belousov, a Russian presidential aide, told reporters. “As regards [November] industrial output dynamics, the result is of course negative,” Belousov said. This is partly because the markets for metals, both ferrous […]
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