Russian Language on the Decline Thanks to English, Says Official

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(Moscow Times – themoscowtimes.com – August 29, 2017) The number of Russian speakers has decreased by about 50 million since the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991, the chairman of the State Duma Committee for Education and Science was cited as saying by the Interfax news agency on Monday. Vyacheslav Nikonov called for an expansion of the Eurasian Union […]

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NEWSWATCH: “Contact averts conflict. Why Russia is foolish not to invite NATO observers to its war games. Instead, the biggest exercises in Europe since the cold war will be conducted amid secrecy and mistrust.” – The Economist editorial

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“… Russia will hold … the biggest military exercise in Europe since the end of the cold war. According to NATO estimates … involv[ing] at least 100,000 troops …. Revived from Soviet times by … Putin … the Zapad (West) drills … take place every four years. … the Kremlin insists that the scenarios … are purely defensive [but] that is not always how they have looked […]

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NEWSWATCH: “The Front Line Drawn Across Russia’s Backyard” – Stratfor

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“Globalization has changed how we think about time, space and distance, but geography is still the same where it counts: national security. … former Soviet states lining Russia’s border know this better than most … their proximity to the eastern giant renders them more vulnerable to Moscow’s hybrid warfare …. Nations like Ukraine, Georgia and Moldova sit on the front line of […]

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NEWSWATCH: “Is Russia Testing Trump?” – New York Times/ MICHAEL J. MORELL, EVELYN FARKAS

File Photo of White House with South Lawn and Fountain

“This week Secretary of State Rex Tillerson is making his first diplomatic visit to Russia, where he’s likely to press Moscow on its handling of Syria, which he has called ‘incompetent.’ … Tillerson should recognize that Russia’s involvement in Syria is only one example of the increasingly active, and disruptive, role that … Putin has been playing on the world stage … […]

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NEWSWATCH: “AS TRUMP FUMBLES, #PUTIN QUIETLY PREPARES TO INVADE HIS NEIGHBORS” – Newsweek/ Atlantic Council/ STEPHEN BLANK

File Photo of Russian Tanks in Military Parade

Recent #Russian actions suggest a new stage of the Russian threat to #Ukraine – and potentially to the #Caucasus, #Belarus or the #Baltic states as well-that could presage a new large-scale #military operation. … in 2016, Russia created 25 division formations and 15 brigades, while raising manpower by only 10,000 men. … Russia may aim to wage protracted large-scale war using the […]

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NEWSWATCH: “Why Belarus Can’t Afford to Be the New Ukraine; Is it too late for Lukashenko to defy Russia?” – The National Interest/Nikolay Pakhomov

Alyaksandr Lukeshenko file photo

“On February 3 Belarusian president Aleksandr Lukashenko launched the fiercest of his rhetorical attacks against Russia  …. moderate estimates show that Belarus has received approximately $100 billion of various Russian investments, preferences and support. … Politically, the Union State of Russia and Belarus that was formed in December 1999 never fully materialized. Furthermore, despite the geopolitical showdown between Russia and […]

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Border regime with Belarus was not introduced, at issue are border zones to regulate trips by citizens of third countries – Kremlin

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MOSCOW. Feb 3 (Interfax) – #Moscow has pointed it out to #Minsk that no decisions on the introduction of a border regime on the #Russian-#Belarusian border have been made and the Federal Security Service director’s order on the creation of border zones is aimed at regulating trips by citizens of third countries. “Belarusian President Alexander #Lukashenko [on Friday] made critical […]

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NEWSWATCH: “Belarus reportedly mulls leaving Eurasian Economic Union as relations with Russia worsen” – bne Intellinews

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“#Belarus wants to leave the Eurasian Economic Union (EEU), the Collective Security Treaty Organisation and possibly the union state of #Russia and Belarus, the Russian online news service Regnum controversially reported on February 2, citing an anonymous source in Moscow. The information has not been confirmed by either Minsk or Moscow, but over the last few months tensions have risen […]

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Eastern Europe Arming Itself because ‘No One Wants to Be the Next Ukraine’

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(Paul Goble – Window on Eurasia – Staunton, September 28, 2016) In what many are calling “the Putin effect,” countries across Eastern Europe, including even #Belarus, nominally Russia’s closest ally, are now arming themselves even when they have to cut social welfare spending because, in the words of one commentator, “no one wants to be the next Ukraine.” This sacrifice […]

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Whose side is Belarus on anyway? Belarusians generally feel closer to Russia than Ukraine, but refuse to get involved in the conflict between them. It is, they insist, “not our war”.

(opendemocracy.net – Yury Drakakhrust – May 12, 2016) Yury Drakakhrust is a Belarusian journalist. He is the author of a number of Russian-language publications on Belarusian and Russian politics, most notably (co-written with Dmitry Furman) Russia and Belarus: States and Societies. The validity of opinion polls in countries with authoritarian regimes is often questioned: how strong is the fear factor […]

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Russians believe Belarus, China, Kazakhstan are the friendliest to them

Eurasia Map

(Interfax – April 9, 2016) As many as 68% of Russian respondents interviewed by the Public Opinion Foundation and asked to name three countries they believe are the closest and the friendliest ones to Russia mentioned Belarus, 56% China and 50% Kazakhstan. These very three countries have remained on top of the list since April 2014. The April poll of […]

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TRANSCRIPT: DNI – Worldwide Threat Assessment of the US Intelligence Community [excerpt re: Russia] – Statement for the Record

U.S. Capitol in Bright Sunlight

(Senate Armed Services Committee – James R. Clapper, Director of National Intelligence – February 9, 2016) Leading Threat Actors Russia. Russia is assuming a more assertive cyber posture based on its willingness to target critical infrastructure systems and conduct espionage operations even when detected and under increased public scrutiny. Russian cyber operations are likely to target US interests to support […]

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Putin Needs a Victory and Annexing Belarus on the Cheap Could Give Him One, Oreshkin Says

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(Paul Goble – Window on Eurasia – Staunton, November 10, 2015) Having suffered increasingly obvious “fiascos” in Ukraine and Syria, Vladimir Putin now needs “a victory,” Dmitry Oreskhin says. “And it turns out that Belarus and Lukashenka are the most suitable variant whom he could defeat with minimal costs” because “Belarus could not hold out for two weeks” if Moscow […]

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EU said close to lifting sanctions on Belarus as Lukashenko’s landslide win satisfies

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(Business New Europe – bne.eu – bne IntelliNews – October 13, 2015) The EU is close to lifting sanctions on Belarus after its authoritarian president, Alexander Lukashenko, won a fifth term in polls on October 11 with 83% of the vote, making some concessions to the political opposition in the process. While there hasn’t yet been any formal announcement of […]

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Lukashenko Victory Set to Stoke EU Rapprochement, Moscow Unease

Alyaksandr Lukeshenko file photo

(Moscow Times – themoscowtimes.com – Howard Amos – October 12, 2015) Autocratic Belarussian leader Alexander Lukashenko looked set to win a fifth term as president Sunday in a largely uncontested and protest-free election that is likely to pave the way for a thaw in relations with European countries and a possible confrontation with neighboring Russia, traditionally a staunch ally. Exit […]

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U.S. Envoy Tells Russia’s Neighbors: Having Putin As Your Only Friend Not A Good Idea

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(RFE/RL – rferl.org – Pete Baumgartner – PRAGUE, September 15, 2015) The U.S. ambassador to the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) says there is a very important lesson for former Soviet republics to have learned from the devastating conflict in eastern Ukraine: Don’t be too reliant on Russia. “Having [Russian] President [Vladimir] Putin as your only friend […]

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Interfax: “Russian world” not political, wider than Russia, includes Ukraine – church head

Patriarch Kirill file photo

(Interfax – Moscow, July 20, 2015) Patriarch Kirill of Moscow and All Russia has expressed concern over attempts to politicize the notion of the Russian world. “Unfortunately, our opponents use the words ‘Russian world’ as a kind of bogey, as a scarecrow, as they allege that it is a kind of doctrine which serves exclusively the interests of the Russian […]

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EU’s Belarus dilemma

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(Business New Europe – bne.eu – MINSK BLOG: Sergei Kuznetsov in Minsk – June 16, 2015) Minsk’s recent efforts to shepherd peace talks between the EU, Russia and Ukraine have borne fruit – Brussels has shown that it is ready to renew its dialogue with Belarus, a country that has been a pariah in recent years. However, this process will […]

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How the Soviet Union Wrecked Russia’s Military-Industrial Complex

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(Moscow Times – themoscowtimes.com – Matthew Bodner – June 11, 2015) While Russia’s tussle with Ukraine may seem an unfair match, Ukraine does have one simple advantage – it makes a number of important vehicles and components that Russia needs to equip its military. After Moscow’s annexation of Crimea last year, Kiev brought its leverage to play and placed a […]

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Interfax: Russians like Belarus and China, have aversion to U.S., EU and Ukraine – poll

Mercator Projection Satellite Image of Earth

(Interfax – June 8, 2015) Most Russians speak ill of the United States, the European Union and Ukraine and see Belarus, China and Kazakhstan as friends, the Levada Center has told Interfax. Seventy-three percent of 1,700 respondents polled in 134 populated localities on May 22-25 expressed negative feelings for the U.S., 15 percent said the opposite, and 12 percent were […]

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The Riga summit of disappointment

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(Business New Europe – bne.eu – Ben Aris in Moscow – May 21, 2015) Several plucky countries of Emerging Europe have put their necks on the block by defying Russian bullying to join its Customs Union, turning instead to the EU and its promise of a better life. But most of these countries are likely to be disappointed, or could […]

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Belarus Leader Urges U.S. Involvement in Ukraine Peace Process

Alyaksandr Lukeshenko file photo

(Bloomberg – bloomberg.com – Aliaksandr Kudrytski, Ryan Chilcote – March 31, 2015) Belarusian President Aleksandr Lukashenko urged the U.S. to play a bigger role in the Ukrainian peace process and said a lasting solution will be impossible without its help. “The most worrying thing is that the U.S. hasn’t been openly involved in this process,” Lukashenko said in the new […]

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EVENT: ASN 2015 World Convention Preliminary Program (New York, April 23-25)

Mercator Projection Satellite Image of Earth

Subject: To Post: ASN 2015 World Convention Preliminary Program Date: Mon, 9 Mar 2015 1 From: Dominique Arel <darel@uottawa.ca> ASN 2015 WORLD CONVENTION PROGRAM 160+ PANELS ON THE BALKANS, CENTRAL EUROPE, RUSSIA, UKRAINE/BELARUS, THE CAUCASUS, EURASIA (incl. CHINA), TURKEY/GREECE, MIGRATION, and NATIONALISM STUDIES The preliminary program of the ASN 2015 World Convention can be downloaded at nationalities.org/uploads/documents/ ASN15_Preliminary_Program-6mar.pdf. The Convention, […]

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Where will Putin Strike Next?

Vladimir Putin file photo with VOA logo; screen shot from video still

(Paul Goble – Window on Eurasia – Staunton, March 5, 2015) The purpose of terrorism is to terrorize, to suggest that old rules and old expectations no longer apply and thereby increase uncertainty and fear. That explains why someone like Kseniya Sochak has suggested that she is next on Putin’s list now that the Kremlin has killed Boris Nemtsov and […]

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Meet the EEU family (Eurasian Economic Union)

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(Business New Europe – bne.eu – bne IntelliNews – January 5, 2015) Members: Belarus, Kazakhstan, Russia Prospective member: Armenia Potential members: Kyrgyzstan (likely), Tajikistan (unlikely) Population: 173mn (Russia, including Crimea, 146mn; Kazakhstan, 17mn; Belarus, 10mn) Total GDP: $2.7tn Share of world gas reserves: 20% Share of world oil reserves: 15% On January 1, the Eurasian Economic Union Treaty governing what […]

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Playing its own game: Belarus as a peacemaker between Russia and the West

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(Russia Beyond the Headlines – rbth.ru – Alexander Iskandaryan, special to RBTH – October 20, 2014) Alexander Iskandaryan is a political scientist and director of the Caucasus Institute in Yerevan, Armenia. The leadership in Minsk seems to be taking advantage of the crisis in Ukraine to improve its image Relations between the West and Belarus have taken a curious and […]

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Even Lukashenka is Worried about What Putin May Do

Alyaksandr Lukeshenko file photo

(Window on Eurasia – Paul Goble – Staunton, April 22, 2014) It is a measure of just how worried the leaders of countries bordering Russia are about the possibility that Vladimir Putin will build on his Crimean Anschluss by moving against their states that even Alyaksandr Lukashenka feels the need to deny that Mensk is oppressing ethnic Russians and to […]

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Lukashenka as Machiavelli

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(opendemocracy.net/PONARS – Arkady Moshes – January 9, 2014) Arkady Moshes is Director of The EU Eastern Neighbourhood and Russia Programme at the Finnish Institute of International Affairs For those who assume that the Belarus strongman Alexander Lukashenka long ago lost his freedom of action vis-a-vis Moscow, his recent bout of assertive behaviour was unexpected. It delivered the desired result, though. […]

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Belarusians Want to Join EU Rather than Russia, Poll Shows

Belarus Map

(Window on Eurasia – Paul Goble – Staunton, January 3, 2013) Ukrainians and Moldovans are not the only nations between Moscow and the European Union who would prefer to be part of the EU than any Moscow-dominated entity and certainly don’t want their country to be absorbed by the Russian Federation.  A new poll shows that Belarusians have the same […]

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Uralkali Arrest Ratchets Up Moscow-Minsk Tension

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(Moscow Times – themoscowtimes.com – Irina Filatova – August 28, 2013) The Russian Foreign Ministry warned Tuesday that detention of the chief executive of potash giant Uralkali in Minsk could cause Moscow’s relations with Belarus to deteriorate as the conflict takes on political overtones. Putting Vladislav Baumgertner in a pretrial detention facility is “unacceptable” and “doesn’t comply with friendly relations […]

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Russia and Belarus Facing Demographic Disasters, Experts Say

File Photo of Crowd of Russians with One Waving Russian Flag

(Paul Goble – Window on Eurasia – Staunton, June 21, 2013) The Russian Federation has only five years [to[ take steps to prevent “a demographic catastrophe” there,  according to a group of the government’s own expert aadvisors on this issue; and its neighbor, Belarus, specialists in Mensk say, may have even less time to avoid an even more severe population […]

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Interfax: Nemtsov, Tymoshenko, Shushkevich top unpopularity lists – poll

Kremlin and St. Basil's

(Interfax – MOSCOW, June 17, 2013) Boris Nemtsov, Yulia Tymoshenko and Stanislav Shushkevich top “no confidence” rankings lists compiled after recent opinion polls taken in Russia, Ukraine and Belarus. Respondents in the polls, conducted by Integratsiya Foundation, were shown lists of opposition politicians in their respective countries and asked whether they trusted any of them, the foundation said in a […]

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COLD WAR II: Russia sets up airbase in Minsk, sells missile system

Belarus Map

(Business New Europe – bne.eu – April 30, 2013) Russia is beefing up its western border’s defence with plans for a new airbase in Belarus and sales to the government there of one of its most sophisticated surface-to-air missile systems. Russian Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu announced April 23 a new deal with Minsk that will see Russia deploy fighter jets […]

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Russians less favorable to U.S., EU, Ukraine, Belarus, more to Georgia – poll

Map of Russia

(Interfax – MOSCOW, April 9, 2013) A recent poll has shown that Russian citizens had less favorable opinions towards the United States and European Union as well as to Ukraine and Belarus. Currently, 48% of Russians give generally positive comments about the United States, against 53% in January. Thus, the share of those opposed to the United States grew from […]

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Russians becoming more favorable to Georgia, Ukraine and Belarus – poll

Map of European Portion of Former Soviet Union

MOSCOW. Jan 30 (Interfax) – The attempts of the new Georgian authorities to improve relations with Russia have affected the attitudes of Russians toward that country, sociological studies indicate. Presently, the number of positive comments on Georgia exceeds the number of negative, sociologists from the Levada Center told Interfax on Wednesday. Thus, while in January last year 36% of Russians […]

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