Not the best of presents for a Presidential birthday

(Business New Europe – bne.eu – Nikolai Holmov, OdessaTalk – October 6, 2014)

Tuesday 7th October is Russian Federation President Vladimir Putin’s 62nd birthday.

It is now, also to be the date where in all probability, the currently sitting Verkhovna Rada will formally put an end to the legally held non-aligned status of the nation.

(At the same session that day, the RADA is also expected to adopt a string of anti-corruption legislation too.)

That is not to say Ukraine will immediately assume an aligned status the same day – though it may formally adopt one posthaste.

What the vote will do is remove the existing legal parameters preventing any such aligned status being declared and adopted in the future. Clearly the inference in the current circumstances, is that any such future choice will not be favourable toward the CSTO, SCO or any other security apparatus with Kremlin involvement.

Whether such a move will also be a stepping stone to ease any possible legislative friction, such as Article 92 of the Constitution of Ukraine “2) the procedure for deploying units of the Armed Forces of Ukraine to other states; the procedure for admitting and the terms for stationing units of armed forces of other states on the territory of Ukraine;” or indeed amending the Constitution, remains to be seen. However, if Ukraine is going to pick a side, it makes sense to make any legal adjustments to allow that side onto and be stationed within Ukrainian territory with as little bureaucracy as is necessary if and when deemed either necessary or appropriate.

Whether or not Ukraine will also relinquish its observer status to the UN recognised Non-Aligned Movement therefore remains to be seen, as it may not align with anybody any time soon despite preparing the domestic legal ground to do so should it so decide to.

The Kremlin reaction to what is very likely to come to pass is yet to be seen, though no doubt the timing will be seen as a deliberate provocation – and perhaps it is, the repealing of the non-alignment vote was originally due to be held on 14th October. Nevertheless, not the most welcomed of gifts for the presidential birthday from an important neighbour – nor an anticipated one when embarking upon the Ukrainian adventure for Mr Putin no doubt.