NEWSLINK: The Stakes in Ukraine: The U.S. should warn Putin not to stoke violence in Kiev.
[The Stakes in Ukraine: The U.S. should warn Putin not to stoke violence in Kiev. – Wall Street Journal editorial – December 9, 2013 – http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB10001424052702304014504579246330793547224]
The Wall Street Journal covers the protests in Ukraine, noting that even with divisions within the country, the majority of Ukrainians want a closer relationship with Europe and a Ukraine with greater democratization:
Ukraine straddles a faultline between autocratic Russia and free Europe. … 46 million … divided between Russian-speakers in the east and nationalists in the west, but most Ukrainians want their country to get closer to Europe. The protests show that Ukrainians are fed up with their rapacious political system and aspire to live under the rule of law.
Accusing Russian President Vladimir Putin of wanting to reestablish a Russian Empire, the editors recount Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych caving in to Russian pressure to back away from the EU:
President Viktor Yanukovych … from eastern Ukraine, surprised his countrymen last month by shelving a free-trade deal with the EU he had promised to sign. Russian President Vladimir Putin had imposed trade sanctions and other punitive economic measures on Ukraine to stop the EU deal and drag Kiev into his own trade and political bloc as he tries to reconstitute a Russian empire.
Ukrainian protests are said to have expanded their focus to address greater democratization:
… protests exploded last week after riot police broke up an encampment of pro-EU demonstrators in central Kiev. The protests have since become less about the EU and now include demands for a new government, early elections and constitutional changes. … Yanukovych fanned public anger on Friday when he met Mr. Putin [the third of recent meetings between the two] …
The United States is failing to show leadership, the editorial argues:
The West’s leadership role used to fall to the U.S., which during the Clinton and Bush years actively helped Ukraine become a stronger state. Now the U.S. has lost interest.
… Secretary of State John Kerry offered platitudes about peaceful protests and suggested America’s ties with Russia were a bigger priority. He also put his diplomatic foot in it by repeatedly referring to “the Ukraine.”…
Yanukovych is predicted to lose the 2015 election, unless it is rigged. However, the editors suggest that other changes could be made in the meantime, including reviving the EU pact:
… Mr. Yanukovych … is up for re-election in 2015. With the economy sinking along with his support, he’s unlikely to win an honest election. A new cabinet and constitutional changes to weaken the presidency could satisfy the streets, and the EU deal could be revived.
But Putin is said to be the wild card in the equation, with the Wall Street Journal even raising the specter of direct Russian interference in a Ukraine that, thus far, had belied past fears of civil war:
… Mr. Putin … will play rough to keep Kiev in his orbit. There are rumors of Russian provocateurs in the crowds and the mobilization of riot police to move toward Kiev. For two decades Ukraine has been the powder keg that never blew, mocking a CIA prediction in the early 1990s of likely civil war. But violence is now a possibility, which could destabilize Europe. If Mr. Yanukovych does move toward a Moscow customs union by fiat, he would split the country.
