NEWSLINK: The Snowden Affair: Questions and Answers with Olga Oliker

Edward Snowden file photo

[“The Snowden Affair: Questions and Answers with Olga Oliker” – RAND Corporation – rand.org
August 7, 2013 – http://www.rand.org/blog/2013/08/the-snowden-affair-questions-and-answers-with-olga.html]

RAND Corporation and its analyst Olga Oliker address U.S.-Russian Relations and Russia’s granting of asylum to Edward Snowden, former NSA administrative IT support contract employee:

The decision by Russia to grant temporary asylum to National Security Agency leaker Edward Snowden has put a chill on U.S.-Russian relations. The United States has agreed to go ahead with high-level talks with Russia’s defense and foreign ministers in Washington on Friday, but cancelled a summit that had been scheduled between presidents Obama and Putin.

While, in the context of the Cold War, Russia might have looked for ways to assist a party undermining the United States, U.S.-Russian relations have since been marked by growing awareness of shared interests.

And Russia does not have a track record of promoting activism:

Olga Oliker: … During the Cold War, the enemy of one’s enemy … was one’s friend. … Today, however, it’s pretty clear that the U.S. and Russia agree on some things, disagree on others, and have a complicated but not generally confrontational relationship. One of the things they surely agree on is that they, as nations, have the right to classify information and keep that classified information, and the ways such information is obtained, secret. … it seems counterintuitive … to grant asylum … Furthermore, there is an element of hypocrisy in Russian officials and pundits lauding Snowden as a human rights hero … when Russia … has a terrible record on free political speech … prosecuting political activists and opposition leaders on a variety of unrelated and seemingly trumped-up charges.

Oliker finds it unclear whether, and what, Russia has gained from the Snowden saga:

My suspicion is … Russia backed itself into a corner … It wasn’t that they stood to gain much by granting asylum; … they thought … they stood to gain by not handing Snowden over initially … demonstrating Russia’s independence in the face of U.S. demands, playing to audiences foreign and domestic that support Snowden and see the U.S. as a bully …. But as Snowden’s stay at the airport lengthened and there were fewer and fewer options regarding what could be done, the choice became one of extraditing … or granting … asylum. Extradition … would have seemed like backing off from Russia’s prior position, kowtowing to the United States. Moscow didn’t want that. So while it probably didn’t particularly want Snowden, either, it may well have felt it had little choice …

It might prove challenging to improve U.S.-Russian Relations in the near future:

Finding a mutually acceptable way out … will be a challenge. Russia has now granted Snowden asylum. It is unlikely to reverse that decision. While Russia and the United States have much in common, much also separates them, including U.S. concerns about Russia’s human rights practices, irreconcilable approaches towards Syria and fundamental disagreement on Iran. … Russia has often seemed more interested in highlighting its divergence from U.S. views than seeking solutions … In this context, Russia’s support for Snowden seems almost an example of seeking a quarrel … especially given … Russia’s own interests in keeping classified information secret…. This is not to predict a new Cold War … we can expect a period where the United States just doesn’t try as hard to work with Russia and resolve disagreements, and both countries press forward with their agendas. We might expect more anti-U.S. rhetoric from the Russians. However, one could argue that … this will not be such a stark change. … a cooler relationship will likely cost Moscow what limited ability it now has to influence U.S. policy, and … might preclude some cooperation and coordination that would benefit both nations. …

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