NEWSLINK: “Don’t Be Fooled – Ukraine Is Not a Frozen Conflict. There are signs of escalation in the simmering conflict.” – The National Interest/Lyle Goldstein

Map of Ukraine, Including Crimea, and Neighbors, Including Russia

“With the North Korea and Iran pots both simultaneously coming to a boil, it’s naturally hard for national security specialists to take on any more complex and dangerous issues. Yet Syria and Yemen demand major attention as human rights catastrophes. … U.S. troops are still somehow mired in Afghanistan – ‘the forever war’ …. there is the seeming possibility of yet another Ebola outbreak in central Africa …. the Taiwan issue could blow sky high at almost any moment … volatile questions surrounding the South China Sea are very far from resolved.  … Ukraine looks rather sleepy – just another frozen conflict, right?  … [But t]here is a strong case to be made that the Ukraine issue far eclipses nearly all the above conflicts with respect to dangers to U.S. national security. Consider the following scenario that is not especially far-fetched: new Javelin anti-tank missiles from the U.S. suddenly give Ukrainian forces the edge in … breakaway eastern Ukraine. As a result, Moscow retaliates against Kiev by launching massive air strikes against Ukrainian forces that kill numerous American military advisors. The U.S., in turn, responds by moving major naval forces into the Baltic and Black sea areas. Russia then answers this challenge with the rash and reckless sinking of a U.S. destroyer in each of the two seas with its new, hypersonic Khinzhal air-launched anti-ship missiles. In response, the U.S. employs B-2 and B-1 strategic bombers to deliver punishing blows against all major Russian naval bases causing major ship losses to the Russian Navy. At this point in the escalation cycle of ever increasing violence, the Kremlin makes a desperate call, opting to “escalate to deescalate,” and launches a limited number of nuclear strikes against tier two American and European cities. Berlin and Washington are spared (at this stage), but Kiel and Charleston are not, unfortunately. Any old-timers familiar with the movies War Games or The Day After can readily imagine the rest of this miserable story ….”

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