Navalnyy’s support in upcoming Moscow mayor election stands at 9 per cent – poll

File Photo of Alexei Navalny Being Grabbed by Police at Protest

(Interfax – July 23, 2013) According to an opinion poll carried out in Moscow on 20-21 July, only 9 per cent of those polled would vote for opposition leader Aleksey Navalnyy in the Moscow mayor election to be held on 8 September, privately-owned Russian news agency Interfax reported on 23 July.(1) The figure has gone up 1 per cent since the poll conducted by the same pollster, VTsIOM, 11 days earlier, VTsIOM has reported on its website.(2)

The two polls showed, however, that the number of those polled who knew about Navalnyy’s activities increased from 71 per cent on 9-10 July to 80 per cent on 20-21 July, but the respondents tended to distrust him. The number of those who do not trust Navalnyy increased from 33 to 39 per cent, while the number of those who trust him went up from 14 to 17 per cent.

The second poll was conducted just two days after a court in the city of Kirov on 18 July sentenced Navalnyy to five years in prison for alleged theft of money from the Kirovles company. The sentence triggered large protests in Moscow and other Russian cities.

Other candidates

According to both polls, it is acting mayor Sergey Sobyanin who would win the election with 54 per cent of the vote. Sobyanin’s rating did not change from 9-10 July to 20-21 July, VTsIOM reported.

Another candidate, CPRF (Communist Party of the Russian Federation) member Ivan Melnikov improved his standing, moving from the fourth place to the third, as his support went up from 2 to 4 per cent. The chairman of the liberal Yabloko party, Sergey Mitrokhin, for his part, moved into the fourth place with his support sliding from 3 to 2 per cent. A member of the highest council of the LDPR (Liberal Democratic Party of Russia), Mikhail Dyagterev, continued to have the same support of 1 per cent.

The polls also showed that an overwhelming majority of Muscovites (92 per cent on 9-10 July and 94 per cent on 20-21 July) were aware of the upcoming Moscow mayor election. A potential turnout at the election also went up, as 49 per cent of the respondents said that they would definitely take part in the election (against 44 per cent 11 days earlier).

VTsIOM said on its website that 1,200 people were polled in each of the two polls and that the statistical error did not exceed 3.9 per cent.

Navalnyy’s reaction

Gazprom-owned, editorially independent Russian radio station Ekho Moskvy reported on 23 July that Navalnyy himself called VTsIOM’s rating “propagandistic”.(3)

“After all, VTsIOM – although it is a propagandistic instrument – it cannot, however, publish ratings which would fundamentally differ from the ratings of FOM, COMCON and other sociological services. This would look completely ridiculous and VTsIOM would lose the last remains of trust. Therefore, they provide, of course, a propagandistic picture, but they cannot ignore the basic trend. The basic trend is such that my rating is growing and I’m linking this to the active work of my headquarters and I am very satisfied with this work. We are practically the only ones who are currently conducting an election campaign,” Navalnyy said on Ekho Moskvy radio.

Navalnyy then added: “And apart from that I would like to note that the ratings which have been provided, VTsIOM’s measurements, they had been done before all that story of my arrest, sentencing and the subsequent release. I think all this story will also have an effect on sociology.”

Melnikov’s reaction

The Communist Party candidate for the post of Moscow mayor, Ivan Melnikov, does not believe VTsIOM’s ratings and thinks that instead of the real sentiment of Muscovites the published figures reflect the result which the governing party would like to obtain, Ekho Moskvy radio said.(4)

“If they indicate 54 per cent of all the voters to Sergey Sobyanin, then it will turn out to be far more than 60 per cent of those who will come to vote. At the same time Vladimir Putin obtained 47 per cent in Moscow in 2012. I cannot seen a single reason for which the result of the acting mayor could be more popular than Putin by 15-20 per cent. And finally, it is definitely not the fight between Melnikov and Navalnyy for the second place that is the main intrigue of this election. The main intrigue of the election currently lies in the size of the combined share obtained by the other candidates for mayor against the share of the United Russia party’s favourite (Sergey Sobyanin),” Melnikov said on Ekho Moskvy.

The report added that Melnikov was confident that his rating currently amounted to at least 17-18 per cent.

(1) Interfax news agency, Moscow, in Russian 1125 gmt 23 Jul 13
(2) http://wciom.ru/index.php?id=459&uid=114304
(3) Ekho Moskvy radio, Moscow, in Russian 1400 gmt 23 Jul 13
(4) Same as (3)

[featured image is file photo from past political demonstration]

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