JRL NEWSWATCH: “Will Russia try to occupy Belarus? Here are the 4 things you need to know about the two nations’ falling out.” – Washington Post/ Ryhor Astapenia
“Will Russia try to occupy Belarus? …. Over the past four months, the Kremlin has been proposing closer ties within the Union State of Russia and Belarus …. That treaty was signed in 1997 … [with] few tangible results. … Russian elites are rumoring that … a fully functioning union might enable …
Putin to stay in power after … 2024. … [as] chairman of the Union State. … [C]hances of Putin governing Belarus are slim. … 1. … Belarus has grown more independent. … 2. Throughout Putin’s term, Belarus and Russia have consistently had disputes. … 3. … the Kremlin has fewer resources to finance Lukashenka’s rule. …
… 4. Discussion of Russia occupying Belarus is primarily a political trick. … If Russia … attack[s] … it won’t necessarily triumph. Most of the Belarusian population and elites support … independence … the costs of … attack would … be high. …Lukashenka[] … is not the type of politician who agrees to share power. … [Y]et each year, Belarus acts more independently. Russian officials may feel that they need to reimpose control on Belarus now or lose yet another ally.”
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