JRL NEWSWATCH: “Why Putin Won’t Invade Ukraine” – Forbes/ Loren Thompson

“… Risk aversion. … Putin[‘s] operating style more closely resembles the behavior of … the cunning peasant who plays a weak hand well. … You break it, you own it. An invasion … would require Russia to occupy … a restive developing nation … recovering from … war. … [a costly] burden … persist[ing] indefinitely …. Galvanizing NATO. [pushing Western powers to] accept that Russia has returned to its old habits …. Inevitable sanctions. … the mother of all sanction regimes … [and with Senate] legislation … pending … to block … Nord Stream 2 …. Domestic opposition. … Putin has to worry about the domestic response to casualties …. Given all the potential drawbacks, a Russian invasion of Ukraine looks both foolish and unlikely. …”

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