JRL NEWSWATCH: “Vladimir Putin cannot keep funding his war for ever; But after winning Russia’s presidential election in March, he will try” – The Economist
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“… Russia’s [2024] budget … [includes] a 70% increase in military spending, to 6% of gdp … a third of all spending. … [Reportedly] in the war’s first year Russia received $590bn in export revenues, mostly from oil and gas … $160bn more than the annual average over the previous decade. Revenues were still some $60bn above that average [in the following year]. [Estimated] [w]ar costs … [exceed] $100bn a year. … [T]he longer the war goes on the harder [it] will be [to maintain a veneer of normality domestically]. To fight a long war, Russia needs more men, officers and weapons … [which] will require mass mobilisation and central planning of military production …. in a … Russia[] [with] poor demography and pervasive corruption. …”
Middle Eastern conflict could help Putin if it pushes up overall global oil prices.
Putin plans a presidential election in March.
In the two years since Russia’s wholesale invasion of Ukraine, hundreds of thousands have been killed, with millions displaced. Most displaced persons have been Ukrainians fleeing the war, yet as many as 1 million educated Russians have gone into exile to avoid mobilization and Kremlin repression.