JRL NEWSWATCH: “Russia’s Repeat Failures: Moscow’s New Strategy in Ukraine Is Just as Bad as the Old One” – Foreign Affairs/ Dara Massicot

Ukraine Map Highlighting Donbas, adapted from image at defense.gov, with photo credit to Peggy Frierson, DOD

“… Russia invaded Ukraine … put[ting] its military forces in an unsustainable position … tak[ing] on more operations than they could bear[,] … nearly all its soldiers surg[ing] simultaneously and rapidly into Ukraine … along multiple fronts. … without … necessary protective measures …. vulnerable to ambushes, counterattacks, and severe logistical problems …. Moscow was overconfident [on multiple counts] … [also] underestimat[ing] Ukraine’s capabilities and will to fight[] [a]nd … fail[ing] to account for … massive … Western support [for Ukraine]. … Russia has had six months to learn from these mistakes[] … [but] appears poised to once again commit its depleted forces to an untenable mission: annexing and holding Ukraine’s Donetsk, Kherson, Luhansk, and Zaporizhzhia … oblasts. Holding this territory will require substantial amounts of manpower and armored equipment …. [T]he regions have contested frontlines … [and] organized partisan attacks. … Moscow has lost its most advanced equipment …. Russian armed forces have … suffered tens of thousands of casualties, including well-trained personnel … [I]ts current strategy for [a motley mix of] replenishment  … will not [be] … effective ….”

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