JRL NEWSWATCH: “Russia’s Plan C … And Plan D …” – Lawrence Freedman
“As the Russo-Ukrainian War takes a darker turn it is important to emphasise … [that] [t]his is a war that … Putin cannot win, however long … and however cruel his methods. … [T]he Russian campaign has been hampered by political objectives that cannot be translated into meaningful military objectives. Putin[‘s] … mythical Ukraine, a product of a fevered imagination stimulated by cockeyed historical musings. … is not a fantasy … Ukrainians recognise. They see it as an excuse to turn their country into a passive colony … [which] they will not allow. No Russian-backed government would have legitimacy and Russia lacks the capacity for an indefinite occupation …. [Russia’s] underlying strategic folly has been reinforced by … tactical ineptitude …. Russian generals chose to show how smart they were … relying on speed and surprise to take key cities, using only a fraction of the assembled force … not even bothering to gain control of the skies. The arrogance of the plan was shown in the move against [Kyiv] …. end[ing] as an operational shamble. … [A] massive convoy … 40 miles long … said to be travelling towards Kyiv. … turned out to be a series of smaller convoys, jammed together because the road is blocked by vehicles that have broken down or run out of fuel. The Ukrainians do not need to go to great lengths to interdict this offensive force: it has stopped itself. … It is now as likely that there will be regime change in Moscow as in Kyiv. …”
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