JRL NEWSWATCH: “Kennan’s Warning on Ukraine; Ambition, Insecurity, and the Perils of Independence” – Foreign Affairs/ Frank Costigliola

“George Kennan … is famous for forecasting the collapse of the Soviet Union. Less well known is his [1948] warning … that no Russian government would ever accept Ukrainian independence. Foreseeing a deadlocked struggle between Moscow and Kyiv, Kennan made detailed suggestions at the time about how Washington should deal with a conflict that pitted an independent Ukraine against Russia. He returned to this subject half a century later. … Should the Ukrainians achieve independence on their own, Kennan advised … [that] Washington should not interfere, at least initially. It was nearly inevitable, however, that an independent Ukraine would be ‘challenged eventually from the Russian side.’ ….”

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