JRL NEWSWATCH: “Casualties Won’t Topple Putin; But they will make his job much more difficult.” – Foreign Policy/ Timothy Frye
“… Russian losses in the war against Ukraine [reportedly] are approaching a staggering 200,000 killed or wounded, with roughly 40,000 dead. … [T]he Russian government and state media rarely mention the scale of the casualties …. [b]ut hiding losses of this magnitude will only get harder. Wounded soldiers are returning home … and those killed in action have friends and families. As more people learn about the size of losses, support for the war will be harder to sustain. … Like all autocrats, Putin faces the dual challenge of keeping … elite cronies in the fold while … satisfying the masses. Rising casualties, regardless of their media coverage, will make both tasks more difficult. Many of the losses Russia has sustained in its invasion of Ukraine have come from marginal groups …. The Wagner Group recruited roughly 40,000 convicts … and these poorly trained soldiers suffered horrific losses. … [S]mall towns far from Moscow provide the bulk of those killed in action. … Putin may be compelled to buy political support by spending more on social welfare …, increasing salaries for state employees, and providing ever more generous state contracts for economic elites … [even with] a shrinking economy …. Future casualties may come from more politically powerful groups ….”
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