JRL NEWSWATCH: “American Consensus on Ukraine Has Fractured; Here’s how the war could play out in the 2024 presidential campaign” – Foreign Policy/ Bruce W. Jentleson

File Photo of White House with South Lawn and Fountain

“… Whoever emerges as the Republican candidate, they are more likely to be in the Ukraine critic lane than the supporter one. … [which] may have some advantages … in the general election. … [S]urvey questions about Ukraine that explicitly identified policies as Biden’s got much lower approval than those about just the policies themselves. … An October 2022 Reuters/Ipsos poll … showed 66 percent approval for Ukrainian weapons aid and 59 percent approval for financial aid, but only 46 percent approval for ‘the way Joe Biden is handling [Ukraine].’ Even keeping the questions political but taking Biden out of them, 69 percent supported pro-Ukrainian military aid congressional candidates in the then-upcoming midterm elections. … Ukraine will not be the most important issue in 2024 … [as compared with] domestic problems, culture wars, and personas. … [or] some competitive China-hawking …. But given [some of the close state-by-state] margins [in the previous, 2020, presidential election], if even a few percent of the electorate [are influenced by issues relating to] Ukraine, the marginal difference could be decisive.”

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American Consensus on Ukraine Has Fractured


 

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