JRL NEWSWATCH: “Agile Ukraine, Lumbering Russia; The Promise and Limits of Military Adaptation” – Foreign Affairs/ Margarita Konaev, Owen J. Daniels

“… Russian forces have shown limited openness to new tactics or new technologies. Hobbled by bad leadership and terrible morale, the Russian military was slow to recover from its disastrous attempt to seize Kyiv in February 2022 and has struggled to adjust its strategy or learn from its mistakes. This is despite having demonstrated considerable dexterity in its deployments in eastern Ukraine in 2014 and in Syria starting in 2015. In the current war, although Russian military leaders have made some adjustments to alleviate logistical problems and improve coordination on the ground, the Kremlin’s core strategy continues to rely largely on throwing more manpower and firepower at the enemy — a lumbering, high-cost approach that has hardly inspired confidence. … [S]ome Western experts have raised the possibility of exceedingly dire scenarios, including a doomed Russian spring offensive, a large-scale mutiny of troops, or even the collapse of … Putin’s regime. … [Yet] although Western analysts and observers may be tempted to conclude that Ukrainian forces’ knack for adaptation will give them an edge in the long term, it is important to recognize that they [still] are facing a far larger army led by a regime that has demonstrated a continued willingness to sustain enormous losses. …”

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