JRL NEWSBLOG: “Can Putin Survive? The Lessons of the Soviet Collapse” – Foreign Affairs/ Vladislav Zubok

File Photo of Kremlin Tower, St. Basil's, Red Square at Night

“… Putin grossly miscalculated by invading Ukraine, and … has exposed the regime’s vulnerabilities — an economy … much more interdependent with Western economies than its Soviet predecessor … and a highly concentrated political system that lacks the tools for political and military mobilization …. If the war grinds on, Russia will become a less powerful international actor. A prolonged invasion may even lead to the kind of chaos that brought down the Soviet Union. … Separatism could rise or return to some regions … if the Kremlin stops paying their residents’ bills. Tensions will generally grow between Moscow — where money is amassed — and … industrial cities and regions that depend on imports and exports. … [such as] oil-producing regions … forced to give ever-larger shares of shrinking profits to the Kremlin. … [S]anctions will gradually drain Russia’s war chest and … capacity to fight. Facing mounting battlefield setbacks, the Kremlin may agree to an uneasy armistice. But … [t]here will at least be a period in which Ukraine and the West have to coexist with a weakened and humiliated but still autocratic Russian state. Western policymakers must prepare for this eventuality rather than dreaming of collapse in Moscow. …”

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