Interfax: World Bank expects Russian GDP to fall 2.9 percent in 2015, edge up in 2016

World Bank Building

(Interfax – January 14, 2015) The World Bank expects Russian GDP to contract by 2.9 percent in 2015, but edge up by 0.1 percent in 2016, the bank said in its January Global Economic Prospects report.

The World Bank estimates that the Russian economy grew by 0.7 percent in 2014.

The bank is forecasting that Russian economic growth will accelerate to 1.1 percent in 2017.

The World Bank at the beginning of December drafted three scenarios for the Russian economy’s development, depending on oil prices. The baseline scenario, where oil trades at $78 in 2015 and $80 in 2016, projected GDP to grow 0.7 percent in 2015 and 0.3 percent in 2016. The worst-case scenario ($70 and $72 a barrel) saw 1.5 percent decline in 2015 and 0.3 percent growth in 2016. In the best-case scenario ($85 and $90), the economy would flatline in 2015 and grow 0.5 percent in 2016. The latest forecast is a significant downgrade on the worst-case scenario.