EVENT: Central Asia Security Workshop at IERES, GWU, on October 30 [in Washington, D.C]

Map of Central Asia, Including Commonwealth of Independent States Members

Date: Wed, 24 Oct 2012
Subject: Central Asia Security Workshop at IERES, GWU, on October 30
From: Marlene Laruelle <laruelle@gwu.edu>

Institute for European, Russian and Eurasian Studies
http://www.gwu.edu/~ieresgwu/
Elliott School of International Affairs
George Washington University

THE CENTRAL ASIA SECURITY WORKSHOP
October 30, 2012, 9.00am ­ 4.15pm
George Washington University
1957 E Street NW, Washington D.C. Lindner Commons, 6th Floor

NATO members are exiting from Afghanistan at different speeds, dictated by pressures from their domestic public opinions. Meanwhile U.S. plans for the region remain clouded by the presidential elections and a reluctance to commit to a long-term presence in wider Central Asia. Afghanistan’s neighbors though, especially Central Asians, are unable to act collectively.

All of these factors have re-launched debates on the security of the region. In the years to come, the post-2014 changes in the regional landscape will intersect with domestic evolutions including changes in political leadership, in demographics, and the end of the Soviet legacy.
GW’s Central Asia Program seeks to shape the emerging policy debate on Central Asia by providing current research on the different sources of potential insecurity in the region.

9am. Registration and breakfast

9.15-10.30am. CENTRAL ASIA IN THE AFGHAN NEIGHBORHOOD: DO WE GET IT RIGHT?
The panel discusses the relevance of the security debate surrounding Afghanistan’s neighbors. Central Asian governments as well as external actors focus almost exclusively on the risk of ­ often undefined ­ ‘spillovers’, the need for more border security, and on a confused strategy, which unifies drug trafficking and Islamist insurgencies. Are we sure we understand this neighborhood correctly?
Chair: Cory Welt (IERES, George Washington University)
Marlene Laruelle (IERES, George Washington University)
What ‘spillover’ from Afghanistan really means
Georges Gavrilis (Hollings Center for International Dialogue)
The closing of Central Asia’s borders
Jeffrey Mankoff (CSIS Russia and Eurasia Program)
Responding to uncertainty in Central Asia: Perspectives from Washington and Moscow

10.30-10.45am. Coffee-break

10.45-12.15pm. INTERNATIONAL LAW, GOVERNANCE, AND REGULATORY DILEMMAS
The panel discusses one of the key drivers of security problems in Central Asia, dilemmas of governance and the emerging regulation within international and regional legal regimes. At different levels, the Central Asian states are dysfunctional, which may contribute to increased domestic instability. China- or Russia-led institutions legitimizing the use of violence, unjust legal systems, and states’ weak capacities in order to ensure the efficiency of law enforcement agencies are among the main challenges the region faces. Are Western governments’ policies oriented toward helping Central Asians improve their governance issues?
Chair: Neil Melvin (SIPRI)
Sean Roberts (George Washington University)
Dilemmas of democratization: The problems of transitioning from authoritarian rule in Kyrgyzstan and implications for other countries in the region
Alexander Cooley (Barnard College, Columbia University)
The extra-territorial use of violence and its new legal justifications
Eric McGlinchey (George Mason University)
My property, your courts: The international litigation of contested Central Asian assets
Erica Marat (American University)
Regulating private security companies in Central Asia

12.15-1.15pm. Lunch

1.15-2.30pm. STATE WEAKNESSES IN PROVIDING HUMAN SECURITY
This panel discusses the difficulties faced by the Central Asian states ­to different extents ­ in providing basic social provisions. The lack of efficiency in resolving everyday water use, lack of preparedness for natural disasters, and deterioration of literacy indicators in societies with a high percentage of youths are signals of potential long-term instability that governments’ policies should take into consideration.
Chair: Alexander Cooley (Barnard College, Columbia University)
Marta Ruedas (Deputy Director of UNDP’s Bureau for Crisis Prevention and Recovery)
Effective resolution of water related issues as a crucial factor for security in Central Asia
Johannes Linn (Emerging Markets Forum, Brookings Institution)
Managing natural and economic risks to human security in Central Asia
Sebastien Peyrouse (IERES, George Washington University)
Blessing and Curse. Demography, youth and education

2.30-2.45. Coffee-break

2.45-4pm. WHERE IS THE SOCIETY IN THE GLOBAL SECURITY ASSESSMENT?
This panel highlights the different transformations affecting the social fabric in Central Asia, and their effects on security issues. Interethnic tensions in Kyrgyzstan, failed redistribution of the oil revenues in Western Kazakhstan and a rising legitimacy of political arguments based on an Islamic ideal are all factors that governments’ need to integrate in their security assessment.
Chair: Marlene Laruelle (IERES, George Washington University)
Gael Raballand (World Bank, and Institute Choiseul, Paris)
Redistribution of oil revenues in Kazakhstan: excessive expectations from the population?
Noah Tucker (Registan.net)
Independent Islamic Movements and Politics in Central Asia
Neil Melvin (SIPRI, Stockholm)
Emerging Conflicts in Central Asia

4-4.15. Wrap-up

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