Arming Ukraine: A Dose of Realism

File photo of Barack Obama and Petro Poroshenko facing one another, with Obama gesturing

Subject: ARMING UKRAINE: A DOSE OF REALISM Date: 17 Feb 2015 From: Kirk Bennett <kirkbennett7@yahoo.com> ARMING UKRAINE: A DOSE OF REALISM By Kirk Bennett Kirk Bennett is a former Foreign Service officer who served in both Moscow and Kyiv. The opinions expressed are his own and do not represent the views of the U.S. government. The latest upsurge in fighting […]

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RUSSIA & UKRAINE: JRL 2015-#31 table of contents with links :: Wednesday 18 February 2015

St. Basil's file photo

… 24. Kyiv Post: Maxim Tucker, Putin doesn’t respond to slaps on wrists; it’s time to go for jugular.
25. Reuters: Steven Pifer, How to arm Ukraine without starting World War Three.
26. Kirk Bennett: ARMING UKRAINE: A DOSE OF REALISM. …

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Ukraine’s President Is Trapped With His Troops

Map of Ukraine, Including Crimea, and Neighbors, Including Russia

(Bloomberg – bloomberg.com – Leonid Bershidsky – February 17, 2015) Two days after the belligerent parties in eastern Ukraine were supposed to suspend fighting, the truce is not holding. The agreement sealed last Thursday has hit the first of several predictable snags: Kiev refuses to recognize that a large number of its troops are encircled near the railroad junction of […]

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Experts Say Conflict in North Caucasus Waning – But Far From Over

Map of Chechnya and Environs

(Moscow Times – themoscowtimes.com – Allison Quinn – February 18, 2015) Though the security situation has improved in Russia’s turbulent North Caucasus, which for years has been plagued by almost daily battles between police and Islamic insurgents, the reduced number of fatalities seen in 2014 may just be the calm before the storm, analysts said Tuesday. “This may be the end of […]

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CNN Applies for Russian Broadcast License Month After Quitting Country

Kremlin and Saint Basil's File Photo

(Moscow Times – themoscowtimes.com – February 18, 2015) U.S. cable news channel CNN has applied for a broadcast license from Russia’s state media watchdog, just one month after leaving the country following the introduction of a restrictive media advertising law. State media regulator Roskomnadzor received the application Tuesday and now has 30 days to consider it, news agency Interfax reported […]

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Interfax: Self-proclaimed Luhansk republic may return to Ukraine on certain conditions – leader

Map of Ukraine, Including Crimea, and Neighbors, Including Russia

LUHANSK. Feb 18 (Interfax) – Ihor Plotnytsky, the head of the self-proclaimed Luhansk people’s republic (LPR), does not rule out that the republic could reintegrate with Ukraine after Kyiv carries out the reforms indicated in the Minsk agreements of February 12. “Will we be part of Ukraine? Everything depends on what kind of Ukraine it is going to be. If […]

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Interfax: UNSC unanimously backs Russian resolution supporting Minsk deal

UN Building file photo

(Interfax – February 18, 2015) The United Nations Security Council unanimously backed a resolution supporting the Minsk deal for Ukraine on Tuesday. The resolution was proposed by Russia. It said, for instance, that every warring side in Ukraine should fully implement the Minsk agreements. The UN Security Council members expressed concern about the hostilities in eastern Ukraine and declared the […]

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Moscow Times: Putin Says Russian Intelligence Shows U.S. Is Already Arming Ukraine

Column in Maidan Square in Kiev, Ukraine

(Moscow Times – themoscowtimes.com – Feb. 18, 2015) Russian President Vladimir Putin has claimed the U.S. is supplying Kiev with lethal weapons, telling reporters that the conflict in Ukraine will not be resolved through military escalation. “According to our intelligence, [U.S.] weapons are already being delivered,” Putin was shown on state television Channel One as telling a press conference on […]

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Ukrainian rebels fight way into Debaltseve

Map of Ukraine, Including Crimea, and Neighbors, Including Russia

(Business New Europe – bne.eu – bne IntelliNews – Feb. 18, 2015) Russian-backed rebels in East Ukraine’s Donbas region look set to take the town of Debaltseve despite a ceasefire agreement entering into force on February 15. Debaltseve is a local road and rail hub that forms a Ukraine-held salient jutting into rebel-held territory, which rebels have fought to encircle […]

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Interfax: Terrorism in Europe rooted in Middle East policy – diplomat

Russian Foreign Ministry Building Tower file photo

MOSCOW. Feb 18 (Interfax) – The ongoing surge of terrorism in Europe is rooted in the European policy in the Middle East and North Africa, Director of the Russian Foreign Ministry’s Department on New Threats and Challenges Ilya Rogachev said. “This is a consequence of the policy, including that of the Europeans, in the Middle East and North Africa,” he […]

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RUSSIA & UKRAINE: JRL 2015-#30 table of contents with links :: Tuesday 17 February 2015

St. Basil's file photo

[check back for updates, including more links; links also posted to facebook and twitter] Johnson’s Russia List JRL 2015-#30 :: Tuesday 17 February 2015 E-Mail: davidjohnson@starpower.net A project of the Institute for European, Russian and Eurasian Studies (IERES) at The George Washington University’s Elliott School of International Affairs: www.ieres.org JRL homepage: russialist.org JRL on Facebook: facebook.com/russialist JRL on Twitter: twitter.com/JohnsonRussiaLi Support JRL: russialist.org/funding.php  1. The Academe Blog: Two Additional (and Important) Documents on […]

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Russia and the West Must Begin Thinking Seriously about a World ‘After Ukraine,’ Kolerov Says

Column in Maidan Square in Kiev, Ukraine

(Window on Eurasia – Paul Goble – Staunton, February 17, 2015) Modest Kolerov, an outspoken champion of Russian nationalism and expansion, says that the expert community in Moscow has still not decided on what would be best for a world “after Ukraine” but that in his opinion, “the best scenario for [Russians] would be a freezing of the conflict.” Kolerov, […]

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Review: Frontline Ukraine: Crisis in the Borderlands

Map of Ukraine, Including Crimea, and Neighbors, Including Russia

(opendemocracy.net – Serhiy Kudelia – February 11, 2015) Serhiy Kudelia is Assistant Professor of Political Science at Baylor University, Texas. He regularly writes and comments on Ukrainian politics. Richard Sakwa’s Frontline Ukraine is both a searing critique of Western policies after the Cold War and a thorough revision of cheerful and monochrome accounts of Ukraine’s latest revolution. When in 1989 […]

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Interfax: Luhansk republic leader announces “closure” of Debaltseve

Map of Ukraine, Including Crimea, and Neighbors, Including Russia

MOSCOW. Feb 17 (Interfax) – The fighting zone in Debaltseve is closed, so all hostilities are taking place inside the self-proclaimed Donetsk and Luhansk People’s Republics (DPR and LPR), LPR leader Igor Plotnitsky has said. “We have a continuous line. The Debaltseve ‘boiler’ is closed. It is Ukraine who cannot and does not want to recognize this. All hostilities taking […]

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The American credibility trap

Putin and Obama with U.S. and Russian Flags

(opendemocracy.net – James Kovpak – February 16, 2015) James Kovpak is a journalist and amateur historian based in Moscow. He is the founder of the blog, Russia without BS. You can follow him on twitter at @RussiawithoutBS American politicians’ attempts to look ‘credible’ when talking about Russia are hypocritical, self-serving and self-defeating. If they really want Russia to change its […]

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It is time for Ukraine to start helping itself

Column in Maidan Square in Kiev, Ukraine

(opendemocracy.net – Balázs Jarábik – February 13, 2015) Balázs Jarábik is a visiting scholar at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. Notwithstanding the ceasefire agreed in Minsk, unless Western policymakers take into account just how fragile the situation inside Ukraine really is, the promise of last year’s Maidan revolution may be snuffed out. Notwithstanding the ceasefire agreed in Minsk, unless […]

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It’s the economy, stupid

Diverse Paper Currency, Coins, Line Graph

(Business New Europe – bne.eu – MACRO ADVISER: Chris Weafer – February 17, 2015) Chris Weafer is Senior Partner at Macro-Advisory, which offers bespoke Russia-CIS consulting. Bill Clinton famously won the first of his two presidential elections using the slogan: “It’s the economy, stupid”. He recognised that while support for the first Gulf War had been strong, people were starting […]

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Donbas militia engage in first ever contact with Kyiv officials – militia leader

Map of Ukraine, Including Crimea, and Neighbors, Including Russia

MOSCOW. Feb 17 (Interfax) – Members of the self-proclaimed Donetsk and Luhansk people’s republics (DPR) militia held first direct negotiations with Kyiv officials under the aegis of a joint ceasefire control and coordination center on Tuesday. “The joint ceasefire control and coordination center held a meeting today, at which our military for the first time engaged in direct contact with […]

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In Ukraine’s West, Patriotism Is One Thing. Fighting’s Quite Another

File Photo of Street in Lviv

(RFE/RL – rferl.org – Daisy Sindelar, Halyna Tereshchuk – MALEKHIV, Lviv Oblast, Ukraine, February 16, 2015) In towns this small, there are three numbers that local officials like Volodymyr Seinkovskiy can recite without even consulting their files: how many of their men are fighting, how many are injured, and how many are dead. In the undeclared Donbas war that has […]

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Russian economy to enter period of lengthy decline in 2015 – Economic Ministry

Diverse Paper Currency, Coins, Line Graph

(Interfax – MOSCOW, Feb. 17, 2015) The Russian economy will enter a period of lengthy decline in 2015, the Economic Development Ministry said in its updated forecast. “If major geopolitical risks and hypotheses that oil will average at $50 a barrel persist, then GDP could fall 3%. According to forecasts, the economy will enter a period of lengthy decline in […]

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Entrepreneur Alexei Gisak: ‘You have to work much harder now’

Cash, Calculator, Pen

(Russia Beyond the Headlines – rbth.ru – Yekaterina Sinelschikova, RBTH – February 17, 2015) RBTH is launching People in Crisis, a series of stories about how people of different social groups are surviving the economic crisis and how their lives have changed. Our first installment features businessman Alexei Gisak – co-founder of the pan-Asiatic fast-food chain Wokker in Moscow. In […]

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Kyiv blames Moscow, Donetsk and Luhansk republics for violating Minsk agreements

Map of Commonwealth of Independent States, European Portion

(Interfax – KYIV, Feb. 17, 2015) Ukraine’s presidential chief of staff has blamed Russia, and the self-proclaimed Donetsk and Luhansk people’s republics for violating the Minsk accords reached on February 12. “Contrary to the expectations that all parties will demonstrate a responsible position after the adoption on February 12 of the Declaration of measures to be taken, including Russia – […]

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Ukraine rebels offer safe passage to surrounded Kiev troops

Map of Ukraine, Including Crimea, and Neighbors, Including Russia

(Interfax – February 16, 2015) The self-proclaimed Donetsk People’s Republic (DNR) is ready to offer safe passage to Ukrainian troops surrounded near the settlement of Debaltseve, DNR spokesman Denis Pushilin [Denys Pushylin] has said. “At the present moment we consider it [Debaltseve] our internal territory. We will offer safe passage to Ukrainian troops. They may withdraw without their weapons and […]

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Russia Is Americans’ Enemy Number One, Poll Shows

Putin and Obama with U.S. and Russian Flags

(Moscow Times – themoscowtimes.com – Ivan Nechepurenko – February 17, 2015) In the eyes of Americans, Russia has surpassed North Korea as the main enemy of the United States, a new Gallup poll reveals. Respondents were asked the open-ended question, “What one country anywhere in the world do you consider to be the United States’ greatest enemy today?” Russia led […]

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RUSSIA & UKRAINE: JRL 2015-#29 table of contents with links :: Monday 16 February 2015

Map of Commonwealth of Independent States, European Portion

[check back for updates, including more links; links also posted to facebook and twitter] Johnson’s Russia List JRL 2015-#29 :: Monday 16 February 2015 E-Mail: davidjohnson@starpower.net A project of the Institute for European, Russian and Eurasian Studies (IERES) at The George Washington University’s Elliott School of International Affairs: www.ieres.org JRL homepage: russialist.org JRL on Facebook: facebook.com/russialist JRL on Twitter: twitter.com/JohnsonRussiaLi Support JRL: russialist.org/funding.php  1. Gallup.com: Americans Increasingly See Russia as Threat, Top U.S. […]

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Russia in Far Worse Shape than Most Assume, Moscow Commentator Says

Aerial View of Kremlin and Environs

(Window on Eurasia – Paul Goble – Staunton, February 15, 2015) Vladimir Putin’s bombast and aggressiveness both is rooted in and helps conceal the underlying reality: “the situation of Russia is much more difficult than it appears,” as even the most superficial examination of Russian realities demonstrates, according to Moscow political analyst Vasily Zharkov. In a commentary in yesterday’s “Novaya […]

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Court finds high treason suspect Davydova’s arrest unlawful

Kremlin and Saint Basil's File Photo

(Interfax – February 16, 2015) The Moscow City Court on Monday found the arrest of Svetlana Davydova, a resident of the Smolensk region, accused of high treason, unlawful, an Interfax correspondent reported. Davydova remained under arrest between January 22 and February 3, and was freed with travel restrictions. Davydova’s defense lawyers had agued from the start that their client’s arrest […]

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German doctors confirm that Savchenko is fine – Russian Federal Penitentiary Service

Map of Commonwealth of Independent States, European Portion

(Interfax – February 16, 2015) The Russian Federal Penitentiary Service (FSIN) has assisted German doctors with an objective medical evaluation of Ukrainian servicewoman Nadezhda Savchenko, which has confirmed that her health condition is fine. “Assistance was provided yesterday with an approved medical evaluation of accused Nadezhda Savchenko by doctors from Germany,” the FSIN press service said in a report obtained […]

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Embattled Teatr.doc Proudly Returns to the Stage

Kremlin and Saint Basil's File Photo

(Moscow Times – themoscowtimes.com – John Freedman – February 16, 2015) “I always thought this democracy stuff was, you know … ,” Alexei Yudnikov said, his voice trailing off with disgust still ringing in it. “Yes, yes! No, no!” A couple hundred people burst into laughter. The joke was both subtle and obvious. Yudnikov was emceeing the reopening of the […]

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Ex-Finance Minister Kudrin Steps Into Spotlight as Russia’s Crisis Grows

Alexei Kudrin file photo

(Moscow Times – themoscowtimes.com – Howard Amos – February 16, 2015) Former Russian Finance Minister Alexei Kudrin took part in an anti-crisis meeting chaired by President Vladimir Putin on Friday in the latest sign that the Kremlin insider turned government critic is playing a more prominent role in economic decision making. The gathering at Putin’s Novo-Ogaryovo residence outside Moscow also […]

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Putin Lets Consumers Feel Pain as Russian Slump Deepens: Economy

Cash, Calculator, Pen

(Bloomberg – bloomberg.com – Anna Andrianova – February 15, 2015) Russian households are bearing the brunt of the blowback from the crisis in Ukraine and a tailspin in oil prices, setting the stage for the biggest drop in consumption in more than two decades that will deepen the country’s recession. Crushed by a 44 percent slump in the ruble in the past […]

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Novak: inability to borrow worse than low oil prices

MOSCOW. Feb 16 (Interfax) – The lack of lending sources is having a worse effect on the Russian oil industry than the low price of oil, Energy Minister Alexander Novak said in an interview with Interfax. “The main issue is the lack of lending resources, sources of financing, not the price of oil. Accordingly, due to the lack of financing, […]

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Russia’s investment climate plummets

Diverse Paper Currency, Coins, Line Graph

(Business New Europe – bne.eu – PERSPECTIVE: bne IntelliNews – February 16, 2015) [Charts here http://www.bne.eu/content/story/perspective-russias-investment-climate-plummets] A survey into Russia’s investment climate by Moscow-based Detail Communications found that investment confidence has halved since the crisis hit. However, a third of respondents – a mix of portfolio managers and analysts from some of the most prominent investment banks, asset management firms […]

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Putin ‘Will Not Advance Further’ in Ukraine, Kyiv Journalist Says

Putin at Desk

(Paul Goble – Staunton, February 16, 2015) Many in Ukraine and elsewhere are fearful that Vladimir Putin will expand his aggression into other regions of Ukraine, but, according to Ivan Yakovina of “Novoye Vremya,” he does not at least at the present time have “the strength, the motive or the opportunity” to do so. here are six compelling reasons why this […]

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Putin Evokes Tolstoy 26 Years After Soviet Troops Pulled Out of Afghanistan

Soviet Era Afghan Soldiers with Flag

(Moscow Times – themoscowtimes.com – February 16, 2015) President Vladimir Putin marked the 26th anniversary of the Soviet Union’s withdrawal from Afghanistan Sunday, vindicating his country’s involvement in the Afghan War and praising novelist Leo Tolstoy’s moral teachings. “When years pass and more facts become known, we more clearly understand the reason why Soviet troops were sent to Afghanistan,” Putin […]

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RIA Novosti: Ukraine rebel spokesman upbeat on cease-fire prospects despite “violations”

Map of Ukraine, Including Crimea, and Neighbors, Including Russia

(RIA Novosti – Donetsk, February 15, 2015) The cessation of artillery fire in the majority of urban centres of the [self-declared] Donetsk People’s Republic [DPR] can be viewed as a sign that the Minsk agreements are being observed, DPR plenipotentiary representative Denis Pushilin [Denys Pushylin] told RIA Novosti. [Passage omitted: Ukraine cease-fire was agreed in Minsk on 12 February and […]

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Why Russian children still love the ballet

Bolshoi Theater file photo

(Russia Beyond the Headlines – rbth.ru – Maria Fyodorishina, special to RBTH – February 14, 2015) The Russian ballet tradition is one of the most influential in the world. Despite the fact that most ballerinas stop performing by their late 30s and dancers have less than a five percent chance of becoming a soloist, parents still enroll their children in […]

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Agreement in Minsk: Will the ceasefire in eastern Ukraine work this time?

Map of Commonwealth of Independent States, European Portion

(Russia Beyond the Headlines – rbth.ru – Alexei Timofeichev, RBTH – February 13, 2015) According to the agreement reached in Minsk on Feb. 12, the ceasefire in eastern Ukraine goes into effect at 00:00 on Feb. 15. However, Russian military experts believe that several factors may impede the full cease of military activity, key among which is the situation in […]

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Interfax: If demands not met, Ukraine rebels to claim rest of Donetsk Region – leader

Map of Ukraine, Including Crimea, and Neighbors, Including Russia

(Interfax – February 14, 2015) If the demands of the self-proclaimed Donetsk People’s Republic (DPR) for de facto independence are not met, the republic may intensify its claims to the whole of Donetsk Region, DPR leader Aleksandr (Oleksandr) Zakharchenko has said, privately-owned Russian news agency Interfax reported on 14 February. “So far we see fuzzy wording and all kinds of interpretations. […]

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Shelling of Ukrainian army position stops – General Staff

Map of Ukraine, Including Crimea, and Neighbors, Including Russia

KYIV. Feb 15 (Interfax) – Acting spokesman for the General Staff of the Ukrainian Armed Forces Vladyslav Seleznyov has announced that the shelling of army positions in Eastern Ukraine stopped as of 3 a.m. on Sunday. “The ceasefire in the zone of the antiterrorist operation is generally observed since midnight. Since that time members of illegal armed formations irregularly conducted […]

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RUSSIA & UKRAINE: JRL 2015-#28 table of contents with links :: Sunday 15 February 2015

St. Basil's file photo

Johnson’s Russia List JRL 2015-#28 :: Sunday 15 February 2015 E-Mail: davidjohnson@starpower.net A project of the Institute for European, Russian and Eurasian Studies (IERES) at The George Washington University’s Elliott School of International Affairs: www.ieres.org JRL homepage: russialist.org JRL on Facebook: facebook.com/russialist JRL on Twitter: twitter.com/JohnsonRussiaLi Support JRL: russialist.org/funding.php  1. New York Times: Robert Mackey, Sifting Ukrainian Fact From Ukrainian Fiction. 2. www.rt.com: Russia shrugs off US envoy’s ‘evidence’ of Russian […]

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RUSSIA & UKRAINE: JRL 2015-#27 table of contents with links :: Friday 13 February 2015

St. Basil's file photo

… 26. The Economist: What Russia wants. From cold war to hot war. Russia’s aggression in Ukraine is part of a broader, and more dangerous, confrontation with the West.
27. New York Times editorial: Making the Ukraine Cease-Fire Stick.
28. Washington Post editorial: The Ukraine cease-fire does little to restrain Mr. Putin.
29. Wall Street Journal editorial: Putin’s Latest Victory. The Minsk accord ratifies a Russian satrapy in Ukraine. …

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TRANSCRIPT: State Department Background Briefing on Ukraine

State Department Building and U.S. Flag

US Department of State February 12, 2015 BACKGROUND BRIEFING ON UKRAINE Special Briefing Senior Administration Officials Via Teleconference Washington, DC MODERATOR: All right. Thank you very much, Operator, and thanks to all the participants in the call today. We have a background call on Ukraine with two senior Administration officials. This call will be on background, so no names or […]

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VIDEO: Will the Ukraine-Russia deal stick? – PBS, McFaul, Hill

Ukraine Map and Flag

(PBS Newshour – Gwen Ifill, Michael McFaul, Fiona Hill – February 12, 2015)  Click here for full transcript. GWEN IFILL: Following the Ukraine cease-fire agreement announcement, many are asking today if this deal can actually stick. We explore the chances of success with former U.S. Ambassador to Russia Michael McFaul. He’s now a professor at Stanford University. And Fiona Hill, director […]

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Russia left without ballistic missile early warning system

File Image of Earth Orbit and Asteroids

(Russia Beyond the Headlines – rbth.ru – February 13, 2015) The launch of Russia’s first Unified Space System satellite Tundra has been delayed until June 2015 for technical reasons, Russian business daily Kommersant has reported, citing sources in the space industry and Russia’s Defense Ministry. The satellite was due to enter orbit in 2013 and replace the outmoded OKO-1 satellites. […]

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What triggered the Maidan massacre?

Maidan Square file photo

(Business New Europe – bne.eu – KYIV BLOG: Graham Stack in Berlin – February 13, 2015) Two separate investigations by Germany’s Frankfurter Allgemeine and the BBC have produced evidence that opposition demonstrators on Kyiv’s Maidan fired on police on February 21, 2014, in the run-up to an ensuing police massacre. The two accounts help explain the events that culminated with […]

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Interfax: Russia didn’t make any promises to release pilot Savchenko in Minsk summit – Peskov

Ukraine Map and Flag

MOSCOW. Feb 13 (Interfax) – The issue of pilot Savchenko was indeed raised by Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko in the Minsk meeting in the “Normandy format” and Russia made no promises, but gave explanations, Russian presidential press officer Dmitry Peskov told Interfax on Friday, commenting on the statement made by Poroshenko saying he had raised the issue of Savchenko release […]

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Business New Europe: Putin’s vision – building a Greater Europe by 2050

Europe Map

(Business New Europe – bne.eu – MOSCOW BLOG: Ben Aris in Moscow – February 13, 2015) The situation in the heart of Europe looks pretty bleak at the moment. A shaky ceasefire deal is supposed to take effect on February 15, but many of the substantive elements of a deal that would allow all sides to walk back from a […]

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RUSSIA & UKRAINE: JRL 2015-#26 table of contents with links :: Thursday 12 February 2015

St. Basil's file photo

… 25. Wall Street Journal: U.S. Weapons to Ukraine Could Take Months, Officials Say. Supply Shortages, Pentagon Bureaucracy Complicate Sending of Lethal Aid.
26. Foxnews.com: US sending around 600 paratroopers to Ukraine to train troops. …

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Would a Ukraine Peace Deal in Minsk Save the Russian Economy?

File Photo of Cash, Coins, Line Graph

(Moscow Times – themoscowtimes.com – Howard Amos – February 12, 2015) U.S. President Barack Obama has claimed the Kremlin’s role in the Ukraine crisis brought the Russian economy to its knees. So, if a peace accord is reached in Minsk on Wednesday will it reboot the Russian economy? Hopes are high that a gathering of Russian, French, German and Ukrainian […]

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