Willy Wonka in the lead as Ukraine goes to the polls for crucial presidential elections

(Business New Europe – bne.eu – May 23, 2014)  Ukraine goes to the polls this weekend in a crucial presidential vote that will end the political vacuum that has been the root cause of the turmoil plaguing the country since former Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych fled the country in February.

There is little doubt about who will win. Ukrainian oligarch Petro Poroshenko – dubbed Willy Wonka, by some as he owns the country’s largest chocolate factory – has an enormously lead over closest rivals. The only unknown in the election is if Poroshenko will win a clear victory in the first round by taking more than 50% or if the election will go to the second round. Poroshenko has called on outlying candidates to pull out of the race in the national interest so that a new president can restore order as soon as possible.

But the real worry is if the elections will be recognized at all. Russia has been destabilizing east of Ukraine specifically to undermine t he legitimacy of the elections. The Kremlin’s goal is to prevent Ukraine closer to the European Union. If Russia ties at Western part of the country in a “frozen conflict” then that could effectively stymie any accession ambitions Ukraine has to eventually join the EU (not that the EU has offered membership yet).

The chances of us back down and may recogniseÉ Skimpy through after the Kremlin began withdrawing troops from Ukraine’s western border last two days. Russian President Vladimir Putin said specifically that the order was designed to make the elections go smoothly by reducing tensions. He also hinted while on a business trip to Beijing this week, that Russia “may” recognise the results as valid. In separate comments Russian prime minister Dmitry Medvedev said the opposite also this week, so the Kremlin is keeping its options open.

The Kyiv International Institute of Sociology (KIIS) released results of a poll that models presidential elections last week that shows 54.7% of those who are going to attend the elections have decided to vote for Poroshenko Ð enough to win in the first round Ð up 6.3% from an earlier poll three weeks earlier.

Poroshenko took most votes from the Former Ukrainian Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko who was in second place, who’s rating fell 4.4% dropping into single digits of 9.6%, according to KIIS latest research. If that is Tymoshenko’s final result it could spell an effective end to her political career as the electorate have become increasingly disillusioned with all their leaders of the last decade and are clearly looking for a clean break from the recent past.

Between 5% and 7% of potential voters are ready to vote for the other candidates former Patry of Regions leader Serhiy Tihipko, independent candidate and Defence minister Anatoliy Hrystenko and Radical Party leader Oleh Lyashko.

If Poroshenko fails to win more than 50% this Sunday the second round of e lections will be held on June 15.

“The logic of those who increasingly support Poroshenko is: Poroshenko will win in any case, should it be in one round, or in two. So, why should we wait three more weeks to vote in the second round and put Ukraine under new risks?” Alexander Paraschiy says, an analyst with Concorde Capital in Kyiv. “A three-week delay in election of the president is considered as an additional risk for the country by many citizens, including the risk of more aggression from the Russian side. Therefore, we believe that an early election of a new president will indeed decrease risks for Ukraine.”