Ukraine’s government withdraws riot police from Maidan as protestors dig in for the long haul

(Business New Europe – bne.eu – December 12, 2013) Following the Ukrainian government’s failure to retake Kyiv’s central square Maidan from protestors on the night of December 11, riot police withdrew the next day and demonstrators rebuilt biggest and better barricades using bags of packed snow, corrugated steel and iron bars.

There is also clearly some last minute horse trading going on behind the scenes where the EU and IMF have improved their offers slightly, as Ukraine’s PM Mykola Azarov dropped his demand for financial help from 160bn to 20bn on December 11. But no deal is expected to be closed anytime soon.

The protests in Kyiv have now gone on for longer than those during the Orange revolution in 2004 and the government’s violent attack on November 30 and again on December 11 have only severed to strengthen the oppositions determination.

“Ukrainians not deterred by the snow and cold. Crowd growing on Maidan, galvanized by last night’s attempt by police to evict them,” Christopher Millerof the Kyiv Post tweeted.

The winter weather has arrived in earnest as temperatures on Maidan fell to -5C but 20,000 protestors spent the night on Maidan in the tent camp that quickly reappeared after police smashed the camp a day earlier.

Sending in the police on December 11 looks like a mistake as social media was alive with tweets saying that more Ukrainians were intending to travel to the capital to join the weekend rallies.

“All protesters from cities in Western UKraine has announced mobilization and go to #euromaidan in #Kyiv,” tweeted Kateryna Kruk, the 22-year-old press secretary for an opposition lawmaker in Ukraine’s parliament.

Tensions will likely rise again this weekend, as there are rumours that the government is organising a counter rally and will pay or cajole up to 200,000 people to attend.

However, the increasingly independent TV stations, many owned and controlled by oligarchs, have been strewn with reports of attendees of pro-government rallies admitting on camera they had been paid to attend.

Ominously EU foreign-policy chief Catherine Ashton, who is still in Kyiv, said President Viktor Yanukovych has promised to take steps toward solving the crisis in Ukraine within 24 hours.

Ashton made the statement after meeting Yanukovych in Kyiv on December 11 for the second time in two days. She then went onto meet with the opposition leaders.

Given the crowd says it will not go home until he resigns and Yanukovych clearly refuses to do that, this statement was taken as the promise of more violence and the possible involvement of the army by the weekend.

Opposition leader and world boxing champion Vitaliy Klitschko is certainly expecting the worst. He told a news conference that the overnight police action against protesters showed Yanukovych was not interested in compromise. “With what happened last night, Yanukovych closed off the path to any kind of compromise,” he said.

Ukrainian Interior Minister Vitaliy Zakharchenko has vowed there will be no forcible dispersal of protesters. “I want to calm everyone down — there will be no dispersal,” Zakharchenko said on the ministry’s website, adding, “No one is encroaching on the rights of citizens to peaceful protest,” RFE/RL reports.

US Assistant Secretary of State Victoria Nuland was also in town and handed out sandwiches to demostrators on Maidan, in what was a a fairly cycnical photo-op given the US is playing a very small role in this dispute. She didn’t go beyond ticking Yanukovych off, saying that police actions against protesters were “absolutely impermissible” in a democratic society, but fell short of offering any material help for the struggling economy.

Nuland told reporters after meeting Yanukovych in Kyiv that she had had “tough but realistic talks,” which lasted for more than two hours.

Yanukovych’s constant flim flam on who is going to support has now probably totally undermined his creditability not only in the west, but also with the Russians, who have been slow to promise to aid the struggling country. We may have reached a point where even Russian President Vladimir Putin believes it is impossible to deal with Yanukovych.

Talks with the EU are continuing. bne’s speculation on December 11 that the EU had improved its offer to Ukraine were given more support by comments from Brussels.

Germany’s foreign minister Guido Westerweller tweeted: “: #EU has made a very compelling offer to #Ukraine.AssociationAgreement would have very positive impact on economic situation.”

However, no details have been released as to the actual content of the deal, but the IMF also seem to be softening its previous hard line.

“The IMF is ready to offer support for Ukraine if the country implments the needed reforms, in particular those relating to its national currency and the price of energy,” said IMF President Christine Lagarde at a press conference late on December 10. This came on top of similar statements made by the Enlargement Commissioner Stefan Fule in front of the European Parliament in Brussels the same day.

A note of desperation is creeping into the government’s rhetoric. PM Azarov said that Ukraine would sign the EU’s association and free trade deals if the Brussels could come up with 20bn, a lot less than the 160bn the government was previously demanding.

“Those who have gathered at Maidan [Independence Square in Kyiv] are demanding that an association agreement be immediately signed with the EU. The government also favors the soonest possible signing of the agreement, but we want to provide conditions to minimize losses for the Ukrainian economy,” Azarov said reports Interfax.

Azarov told a government meeting Wednesday that Ukraine was still open to signing the European integration deal if the European Union agreed to come up with cash and suggested this could be in the form of co-investments. “We are realistic and therefore offer the EU to invest in mutually beneficial joint projects,” he added.

Azarov said also said that there would be no discussion at a meeting with the Kremlin slated for December 17.

“There will be no discussion of the Customs Union and the government is not drafting any documents. I want to stop the rumors right away,” Azarov said in his opening remarks at a government meeting on Wednesday.