Subject: Arms Control and the Trump-Putin Summit Date: Wed, 11 Jul 2018 From: STEPHEN CIMBALA <sjc2@psu.edu> Arms Control and the Trump-Putin Summit By Stephen J. Cimbala Stephen J. Cimbala is Distinguished Professor of Political Science at Penn State Brandywine. Dr Cimbala is an award winning Penn State teacher and the author of numerous works in the fields of national security […]
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“… When [Trump and Putin] meet in Helsinki … they are likely to touch on whether to extend the “New START” agreement to 2026 and what to do about … the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty (INF) …. Historically, arms control has been an area where Washington and Moscow have been able to talk to one another even when their broader […]
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“… First, begin discussions on how to increase decision time for leaders to reduce the risk of a false warning of a nuclear attack or a nuclear accident or miscalculation. … Second, begin discussions on reducing and managing cyber nuclear risks. … Third, work jointly to restart bilateral crisis management dialogue, including among uniformed military leaders in charge of nuclear […]
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“As Cohen pointed out in previous discussions, U.S.-Russian (Soviet and post-Soviet) summits are a long tradition going back to FDR’s wartime meeting with Stalin in Yalta in 1943. Every American president since FDR met with a Kremlin leader in a summit-style format at least once, several doing so multiple times. The purpose was always to resolve conflicts and enhance cooperation […]
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MOSCOW. July 12 (Interfax) – The United States may fail to certify its manned spaceships before August 2020, in which case NASA will need additional seats on Russian Soyuz ships, according to the United States Government Accountability Office. “Additional delays could result in a gap in U.S. access to the space station as NASA has contracted for seats on the […]
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“… The Russian meeting is preceded by Trump’s fraught attendance at the … NATO[] summit and a next-day visit to an uneasy United Kingdom. … Every foreign power – not least, China – will watch closely. * * * This is a crisis, and it’s time for both sides of America’s domestic political scene to display unity. The United States […]
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MOSCOW. July 10 (Interfax) – Russian MPs may remove the provision criminalizing compliance with Western anti-Russian sanctions in the country from a draft bill that is currently under consideration in the lower house of the Russian parliament, State Duma Chairman Vyacheslav Volodin said. “Everyone, including the business community, experts and deputies, have reached consensus on the second part of the […]
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“… The Kremlin invaded Georgia to prevent its accession to NATO. Russia used different means to accomplish the same goal with Ukraine, and then attempted to assassinate the prime minister of Montenegro in a last-ditch effort to forestall the same — all of which expose the Kremlin’s deep paranoia about its former vassals defending themselves from Russian belligerence. The Baltics, […]
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(Moscow Times – themoscowtimes.com – July 10, 2017) The possibility of more Western sanctions against Moscow is the key risk for the Russian economy, as much of 21 percent of which has already felt the impact of existing sanctions, Russia’s Analytical Credit Ratings Agency said in a report on Tuesday. Western sanctions are expected to weigh on Russia’s oil-dependent economy […]
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“… Putin turned directly to McFaul and berated him for trying to ruin United States-Russia relations. * * * … McFaul concluded that [Putin] was ‘paranoid,’ a man of ‘fixed and flawed views’ who ‘saw us as the enemy,’ … that so long as he ruled Russia, ‘strategic partnership was impossible.’ … [But McFaul’s] relentless focus on Putin’s individual role […]
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(Paul Goble – Window on Eurasia – Staunton, July 4, 2018) Previous American presidents in their dealings with Moscow have typically moved from progress in one area to progress in others, Andrey Kortunov says; but Donald Trump is different: he will treat each “‘deal’” with Moscow separately; and thus any forward movement on Syria won’t make an agreement on Ukraine […]
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MOSCOW. July 4 (Interfax) – State Duma Speaker Vyacheslav Volodin has suggested that Russia and the United States forsake “blacklists” and “iron curtains” of all kinds to promote cooperation between the two countries. “As for the blacklists, this is what our counterparts from the [U.S.] Congress thought up in their hot heads – we have to cool down and walk […]
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(Oilprice.com – Tsvetana Paraskova – June 28, 2018) The U.S. shale boom and the massive Russian expansion of natural gas pipelines will make the United States and Russia the dominant spenders on oil, petroleum products, and natural gas pipelines through 2022, data and analytics company GlobalData says in a new report. The other big spenders between 2018 and 2022 will […]
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“… Question: Foreign Minister, the summit is happening in Helsinki. Russian President V.Putin and US President D.Trump together. Is this the post-West world order that you have talked of in the past? Has it now arrived? …”
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“… There are possibilities for … a larger negotiation on … get[ting] Iranian forces out [of Syria] …. * * * [T]he Russians are always saying to us they want to cooperate on international terrorism …. * * * I had meetings … with … Putin and his foreign minister … defense minister and … diplomatic adviser … the [U.S.] […]
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(Jack Matlock – Jackmatlock.com – June 29, 2018) About: Jack Matlock is a career diplomat who served on the front lines of American diplomacy during the Cold War and was U.S. ambassador to the Soviet Union when the Cold War ended. Since retiring from the Foreign Service, he has focused on understanding how the Cold War ended and how the […]
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“… Trump has been consistent in his desire to make a ‘deal’ with … Putin …. ‘Russiagate’ investigations [have impacted that prospect] …. Given the tense state of U.S.-Russian relations and the paucity of high-level contacts, there are strong arguments for Trump to hold a summit with Putin. … it makes sense for the world’s two nuclear superpowers to … […]
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“Now that the world has digested the Horowitz report, notice how much of the story it doesn’t tell. The Federal Bureau of Investigation is treated as a closed loop when, in fact, much of its decision making was based on intelligence and advice supplied by other agencies. …”
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“… Trump will meet … Putin next month in Helsinki …. The president should approach the summit with a realistic assessment of Moscow’s capabilities and intentions. Putin is no friend of Western-style liberalism, but then, many U.S. allies are no less authoritarian. There is no evidence that he bears any ideological animus toward America or Europe. KGB officers were among […]
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“… Obama thought very similar to the way I did. There was hardly any daylight, both on substantive issues and analytic framework. …”
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“… Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and other officials insist that the Trump administration has been tougher toward Russia than the Obama administration was. They cite American sanctions, arming of Ukrainian troops, expulsion of diplomats and vocal public shaming of Russia for its cyberattacks. …”
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(Interfax – June 27, 2018) U.S. National Security Advisor John Bolton visited Moscow on June 27 to lay the groundwork for the first full-fledged meeting between Russian President Vladimir Putin and U.S. President Donald Trump. While in Moscow, Bolton was received by Putin and held meetings with Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov and Russian Security Council First Deputy Secretary Yury Averyanov. […]
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“… Trump is set to hold the first [formal] summit of his presidency with … Putin on July 16 in Helsinki … White House press secretary Sarah Sanders said the leaders would meet to discuss relations between their two nations and a ‘range of national security issues.’ The Kremlin … announced the details of the meeting at the same time […]
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MOSCOW. June 27 (Interfax) – Russian President Vladimir Putin has shared with United States President’s National Security Advisor John Bolton some of the ideas that he had intended for the U.S. leader personally, Russian presidential aide Yury Ushakov said after Putin and Bolton met at the Kremlin on Wednesday. Today’s meeting focused on the priority issues to be discussed at […]
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(Kremlin.ru – June 27, 2018) Vladimir Putin received John Bolton, national security adviser to the President of the United States of America, in the Kremlin. Russian participants at the meeting included Presidential Aide Yury Ushakov, Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov and Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu. The discussion focused on the prospects for developing Russian-US relations, disarmament, the Syria and Ukraine crises, […]
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“… The White House is planning a Trump-Putin meeting in Moscow that likely would occur around the same time as the World Cup final July 15. …”
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“… Putin is not the only decision-maker regarding Russian foreign policy. Internally, there are bureaucratic politics, interest groups, and even economic actors who lobby the Kremlin. After 15 years in the Kremlin, however, Putin has become increasingly isolated from other foreign policy advisors and more confident in his individual talents to conduct Russian foreign policy. …”
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“Silicon Valley companies and law enforcement are starting to talk about how to ward off meddling by malicious actors including Russia on social media in the November midterms, an attempt at dialogue and information-sharing that was absent during the 2016 presidential elections. …”
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(Article ©2018 RFE/RL, Inc., Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty – rferl.org – June 27, 2018 – also appeared at rferl.org/a/russia-us-trump-putin-summit-on-agenda-as-bolton-heads-to-moscow/29322852.html) Russian President Vladimir Putin has told U.S. national security adviser John Bolton that his visit “instills hope” that steps can be taken to improve badly strained relations between the countries. Putin and Bolton, who was in Moscow to discuss U.S.-Russian ties and […]
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“… The bloggers had borrowed a page from the playbook of Russia’s so-called hybrid warfare, which American and Lithuania officials say has increasingly combined the ability to manipulate events using a mix of subterfuge, cyberattacks and information warfare with conventional military might. The 12-day military exercise, which involved 18,000 American and allied troops spread across four countries formerly part of […]
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(Paul Goble – Window on Eurasia – Staunton, June 25, 2018) Fedor Lukyanov, president of Russia’s Council on Foreign and Defense Policy, argues that US President Donald Trump is not the cause by a symptom of fundamental changes in the world and as such is quite predictable, something other governments including Russia’s must take into account. In today’s Ogonyek, the […]
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“Special counsel … Mueller’s investigation may face a serious legal obstacle …. antecedent political bias. … the Justice Department’s inspector general[] unearthed a pattern of anti-Trump bias by high-ranking [FBI] officials …. their communications … were ‘… indicative of a biased state of mind … imply a willingness to take action to impact a presidential candidate’s electoral prospects.’ Although … […]
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“[By Igor Ivanov, President of the Russian International Affairs Council (RIAC), Minister of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation (1998–2004)]”
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“… U.S.-Russian relations have only sunk into deeper distress … more sanctions, more diplomatic expulsions, more military clashes in Syria, and a growing sense that the entire U.S.-Russian arms-control regime is at risk. * * * For … Russian and American delegates here – [such as] retired diplomats, politicians, academics, clergy, doctors, and media, including this reporter – the prospect […]
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“… Cohen reminds listeners that the Russiagate scandal, which first leaked into the media in mid-2016, has already done immense political damage during these two years. …”
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SAMARA. June 20 (Interfax) – Based on the statements coming from Washington, Moscow believes that the United States will not prevent it from filling the vacancies that resulted from the expulsion of Russian diplomats, Foreign Ministry spokesperson Maria Zakharova said on Wednesday. “As for the filling of the vacancies that appeared at Russian foreign outposts in March through the U.S.’ […]
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“Please join us for an exclusive look at The Perfect Weapon … In 2015, Russian hackers tunneled deep into the computer systems of the Democratic National Committee …
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(Article ©2018 RFE/RL, Inc., Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty – rferl.org – June 16, 2018 – also appeared at rferl.org/a/us-warns-terrorism-risk-world-cup-venues-stadiums-train-stations-airports-russia/29292547.html) The U.S. State Department is warning that “terrorists” may target World Cup venues in Russia, which is hosting the monthlong soccer tournament, but it did not point to any specific threat. In a travel advisory issued late on June 15, the department […]
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“Secretary of Defense James Mattis slammed Russia on Friday, saying Russian President Vladimir Putin ‘attempts to undermine America’s moral authority’ and ‘seeks to shatter NATO.’… ‘For the first time since World War II, Russia has been the nation that has redrawn international borders by force in Georgia and Ukraine while pursuing veto authority over their neighbors’ diplomatic, economic and security […]
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“Days after a historic summit with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un, the Trump administration is forging ahead with new engagements with another longtime adversary: Russia. … Trump is expected to meet with … Putin next month while he is in Europe for a NATO summit, according to a senior administration official and two diplomats familiar with his schedule. In […]
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“… The first time … McFaul met … Putin … [when] he was an assistant to the mayor of St Petersburg[,] ‘He made absolutely no impression on me …’ said McFaul. ‘I would never have predicted … that he would become President of Russia.’ … when McFaul arrived in Moscow in 2012 as … U.S. ambassador …. [a]t their very […]
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“New texts released … by the Justice Department’s inspector general show that the F.B.I. agent overseeing the investigation into … Trump’s campaign pledged to stop … Trump from becoming president. ‘[Trump’s] not ever going to become president, right?’ asked a top F.B.I. lawyer, Lisa Page, in one text. ‘Right?!’ Peter Strzok, the agent overseeing the F.B.I.’s investigation into links between […]
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“… None of the works on Trump and Russia is comprehensive; the appeal of one or another depends on the angles you obsess over and the blind spots you ignore. …” * * * THE FUTURE IS HISTORY How Totalitarianism Reclaimed Russia By Masha Gessen. Riverhead. 515 pp. $28 COLLUSION Secret Meetings, Dirty Money, and How Russia Helped Donald Trump […]
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MOSCOW. June 12 (Interfax) – The meeting between U.S. President Donald Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un is a historical event, but it would not give instant results, to that end negotiations should move to the six-party format, Alexei Chepa, the deputy chair of the State Duma International Affairs Committee, told Interfax on Tuesday. “It is a historical […]
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“Federal prosecutors say they believe operations to interfere in U.S. elections are ongoing and want a court to tightly control how evidence gathered by special counsel Robert S. Mueller III about Internet trolling in 2016 is shared with a Russian company accused of helping to mislead American voters. … The filing seeking a protective order for documents came in proceedings […]
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(Kremlin.ru – June 10, 2018) President of Russia Vladimir Putin: Good afternoon, welcome everyone. I suggest we immediately get down to your questions without any statements from me because President of China, Mr Xi Jinping has just reported at the news conference on the progress and the results of our work today. So, please, if there are any specific questions […]
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(Interfax – June 9, 2018) Russia’s Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov has said Russia has never asked to be readmitted to the G8, and considers the G20 group a more promising format for the future, Interfax news agency reported on 9 June. “We’ve never asked to come back,” Lavrov said on Russia’s state-owned Channel One TV, the report said, noting that […]
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MOSCOW. June 6 (Interfax) – Roscosmos General Director Dmitry Rogozin and U.S. Ambassador to Russia Jon Huntsman have met in Baikonur to discuss the future of bilateral cooperation in space projects, the state corporation’s press service said in a statement. [Rogozin] has had a working meeting with NASA Deputy Administrator William Gerstenmaier and U.S. Ambassador to Russia Jon Huntsman; the […]
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“The United States is pressing European allies to ready more NATO battalions, ships and planes for combat … to shore up NATO’s deterrence against a potential Russian attack. … seek[ing] broad agreement for the plan … when … defense ministers meet, laying the ground for endorsement by NATO leaders at a [July] summit …. [envisioning] 30 land battalions, 30 air […]
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“The previous U.S. ambassador to Russia had a staff of more than 1,200 people, an embassy in Moscow and three consulates as well as a country house. Jon Huntsman has about 455 staffers left, and only the embassy and two consulates remain operating. At a tense time for U.S.-Russian ties – arguably the most turbulent since the Cold War – […]
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