Russia Analytical Report, Feb. 26-March 4, 2024

File Photo of Red Square, Kremlin, Environs, adapted from image at state.gov

(Russia Matters – russiamatters.org) 3 Ideas to Explore “Russia’s ability to absorb military losses, its deliberate targeting of civilian infrastructure and the limitations of its conventionally armed land-attack missile arsenal provides” at least two “potential insights into Russia’s theatre nuclear doctrine,” according to William Alberque of IISS. “Firstly, given Russia’s indifference to civilian casualties in Ukraine, it stands to reason that […]

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Russia in Review, Feb. 23-March 1, 2024

File Photo of Red Square, Kremlin, Environs, adapted from image at state.gov

(Russia Matters – russiamatters.org) 7 Things to Know Vladimir Putin used his annual address to the Russian parliament to not only rattle his nuclear saber at the West again, but also to accuse his Western counterparts of “spooking the world” with the threat of a nuclear war, all while claiming to be ready for talks on nuclear arms control. “We remember what […]

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Russia in Review, Jan. 26-Feb. 2, 2024

File Photo of Red Square, Kremlin, Environs, adapted from image at state.gov

(Russia Matters – russiamatters.org) 7 Things To Know Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy summoned Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (ZSU) Valerii Zaluzhnyi on Jan. 29 to tell the general he was being fired. At the meeting, Zaluzhnyi was offered the post of secretary of the national security council, but he turned it down, according to The Economist.[1] Two days […]

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Russia in Review, Jan. 12-19, 2024

File Photo of Red Square, Kremlin, Environs, adapted from image at state.gov

(Russia Matters – russiamatters.org) 1. In the past month, Russian forces have gained 57 square miles of Ukrainian territory, while Ukrainian forces have re-gained 1 square mile, according to the Jan. 16, 2024, issue of the Russia-Ukraine War Report Card. In an article on the war entitled “Russia Regains Upper Hand in Ukraine’s East as Kyiv’s Troops Flag,” NYT noted […]

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Russia Analytical Report, Jan. 2-8, 2024

File Photo of Red Square, Kremlin, Environs, adapted from image at state.gov

(Russia Matters – russiamatters.org) “The ‘rules-based order’ that President Biden proclaims has become a slogan rather than a fact,” WP’s David Ignatius argues in his preview of how the Russian-Ukrainian war and other conflicts will evolve in 2024. In his latest column, Ignatius blasts Vladimir Putin’s aggression again Ukraine, but also reminds us how there was an “element of truth” in […]

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Russia in Review, Dec. 21, 2023-Jan. 5, 2024

File Photo of Red Square, Kremlin, Environs, adapted from image at state.gov

(Russia Matters – russiamatters.org) Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky and its commander-in-chief Valerii Zaluzhnyi have continued their indirect struggle over which of them should assume prime responsibility for the unpopular decision1 to conscript up to 500,000 Ukrainians. The tussle began on Dec. 19 when Zelensky claimed that the Ukrainian army chiefs had requested the conscription of up to 500,000 men, according […]

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Russia Analytical Report, Nov. 27-Dec. 4, 2023

File Photo of Red Square, Kremlin, Environs, adapted from image at state.gov

(Russia Matters – russiamatters.org) Miscalculations and divisions marked the efforts of Kyiv and its allies to plan the Ukrainian military’s summer offensive, according to the results of extensive research by Washington Post staff into the lead-up to the largely unsuccessful operation. “The year began with Western resolve at its peak, Ukrainian forces highly confident and … Zelensky predicting a decisive […]

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Russia in Review, Nov. 21-Dec. 1, 2023

File Photo of Red Square, Kremlin, Environs, adapted from image at state.gov

(Russia Matters – russiamatters.org) In the past month, Russian forces have gained 12 square miles of Ukrainian territory, while Ukrainian forces gained 5 square miles, according to the Nov. 28 issue of the Russia-Ukraine War Report Card. Developments on and off the battlefield have prompted Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky this week to admit that Ukraine’s counteroffensive did not produce the desired results, warning of […]

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Russia Analytical Report, Nov. 20-27, 2023

File Photo of Red Square, Kremlin, Environs, adapted from image at state.gov

(Russia Matters – russiamatters.org) There is no “durable stalemate on the ground” in the Russian-Ukrainian war as there is “no clear-cut parity,” CEIP’s Michael Kofman said in a War on the Rocks podcast shortly after returning from Ukraine. Looking back, Kofman advised that “the sooner we can say” Ukraine’s counteroffensive has not been successful, “the sooner we can learn from it.” Looking […]

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Russia in Review, Nov. 9-17, 2023

File Photo of Red Square, Kremlin, Environs, adapted from image at state.gov

(Russia Matters – russiamatters.org) The U.S. Congress’ interest in financing Ukraine’s fight against invading Russian forces has “dipped lower than ever,” according to WP. Moreover, rising competition from other national security priorities could “sound the death knell for continued American aid” for Kyiv, this newspaper predicted shortly before Biden signed a bill that is designed to avoid a government shutdown, […]

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Russia in Review, Oct. 27-Nov. 3, 2023

File Photo of Red Square, Kremlin, Environs, adapted from image at state.gov

6 Things to Know Commander-in-chief of Ukraine’s armed forces Valery Zaluzhny has admitted that his forces’ offensive has reached a stalemate, while the commander of Ukraine’s ground forces and architect of last year’s successful counteroffensive Oleksandr Syrskyi has described the current conditions along the 600-mile frontline as “difficult” and “challenging.” “There will most likely be no deep and beautiful breakthrough … […]

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Russia in Review, Oct. 6-13, 2023

File Photo of Red Square, Kremlin, Environs, adapted from image at state.gov

(Russia Matters – russiamatters.org) As violence escalated between Israel and Hamas after the latter’s indiscriminate attacks against the former, top Russian officials seized the opportunity to blame the crisis on what they described as America’s repeated failure to use its “monopoly” on mediation between the two sides to reach a fair peace deal. Vladimir Putin has also called for a cessation […]

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Russia Analytical Report, Oct. 2-10, 2023

File Photo of Red Square, Kremlin, Environs, adapted from image at state.gov

(Russia Matters – russiamatters.org) “An existential threat to Israel could draw American attention away from the Ukrainian cause, possibly smoothing a path toward a Russian triumph in Europe,” CFR’s Bruce Hoffman and Jacob Ware write in War on the Rocks. NYT editors raise a related concern, warning that “the violence in Israel may also strengthen calls to cut military aid to Ukraine.” […]

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Russia in Review, Sept. 29-Oct. 6, 2023

File Photo of Red Square, Kremlin, Environs, adapted from image at state.gov

(Russia Matters – russiamatters.org) 7 Things to Know Putin has shot down proposals to lower the threshold for nuclear weapons use in Russia’s doctrinal documents, but called for Russia to de-ratify the CTBT. When asked by Sergei Karaganov at the Valdai Club meeting on Oct. 5 whether Russia should “modify the doctrine on using nuclear weapons, lowering the nuclear threshold,” Putin said: “[T]here […]

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Russia in Review, Sept. 15-22, 2023

File Photo of Red Square, Kremlin, Environs, adapted from image at state.gov

(Russia Matters – russiamatters.org – Sept. 22, 2023) 7 Things to Know Ukraine intends to continue its counteroffensive through the autumn and into the winter, according to remarks made by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and chairman of the U.S. Joint Chiefs of Staff Mark Milley this week. “The fight right now still has plenty of fighting weather left,” according to Gen. Milley. At the […]

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Russia in Review, Sept. 8-15, 2023

(Russia Matters – russiamatters.org) Russia has managed to overcome sanctions and export controls imposed by the West to expand its missile production beyond prewar levels, according to U.S., European and Ukrainian officials cited by NYT. “With revenue from high energy prices, Russia’s security services and ministry of defense have been able to smuggle in the microelectronics and other Western materials […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Putin meets Kim Jong Un, looking for arms – and friends” – Christian Science Monitor

File Photo of Kim Jong-Un At Podium Near North Korean Flag and Hammer and Sickle Emblem, adapted from hhs.gov image

“Vladimir Putin is often accused of trying to restore the old Soviet Union. But his meeting with Kim Jong Un suggests he might be focusing on restoring ties with like-minded former Soviet allies instead.” “… Both the Russian and North Korean delegations at the Vostochny Cosmodrome, near the Chinese border, included officials responsible for munitions, suggesting an urgent Russian interest […]

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Russia in Review, Sept. 1-8, 2023

File Photo of Red Square, Kremlin, Environs, adapted from image at state.gov

7 Things to Know G-20 leaders began arriving in New Delhi on Sept. 8 for their annual gathering as negotiators struggled to bridge differences over the war in Ukraine in the group’s joint statement. While it remains unclear whether a final consensus can be reached, China appears to have dropped its initial opposition to language on Ukraine and Russia, according […]

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Russia in Review, Aug. 11-18, 2023

File Photo of Red Square, Kremlin, Environs, adapted from image at state.gov

(Russia Matters – russiamatters.org) 6 Things to Know The U.S. intelligence community assesses that Ukraine’s current counteroffensive will fail to reach the key southeastern city of Melitopol, thus, remaining unable to disrupt the land bridge from Russia to Crimea, WP reported, citing “people familiar with the classified forecast.” The assessment is based on Russia’s proficiency in defending occupied territory,  which […]

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Russia in Review, July 28-Aug. 4, 2023

File Photo of Red Square, Kremlin, Environs, adapted from image at state.gov

6 Things to Know In the past month of fighting Russian armed forces made a net gain of 14 square miles, according to the estimate by the Belfer Russia-Ukraine War Task Force. Their research shows that the period saw Russian forces gain 43 square miles of Ukrainian territory, while Ukraine’s net gain was 29 square miles, according to the Aug. 1, 2023 issue […]

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Russia in Review, June 23-30, 2023 – One Thing to Know

File Photo of Red Square, Kremlin, Environs, adapted from image at state.gov

(Russia Matters – russiamatters.org) Russian intelligence services may have known in advance of Yevgeny Prigozhin’s plan to stage a mutiny, but it nonetheless materialized to pose the greatest military and security threat to Vladimir Putin’s rule since the end of the second Chechen war. The mutiny itself lasted only 36 hours, never spread to Moscow and ended with its chief […]

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Russia in Review, June 9-16, 2023 – 7 Things to Know

File Photo of Red Square, Kremlin, Environs, adapted from image at state.gov

(Russia Matters – russiamatters.org) Ukraine’s military command claimed, as of June 15, to have retaken approximately 40 square miles of territory in the course of its counteroffensive, even as its soldiers encountered what U.S. military officials described as fierce resistance by Russian troops. The latter have reportedly managed to destroy at least four Leopard-2 tanks, 3 Leopard 2R engineering vehicles […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “How Was Russia Able to Launch Its Biggest Aerial Attack on Ukraine?” – New York Times

Iskander Missile with Launch file photo

“Western and Ukrainian officials have said Moscow’s stockpile of missiles was dwindling. But the assaults this week raise questions about that.” “The 96-missile barrage fired across Ukraine on Tuesday was Russia’s biggest aerial attack of the war …. Whether… long planned, as Ukrainian commanders say … a deadly response to Kyiv’s recapture of … Kherson … [it] raises questions about […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Russia’s Ukraine Setbacks: Putin’s threats and scramble for arms show he’s under pressure” – Wall Street Journal

European Portion of Commonwealth of Independent States

“Russia’s war against Ukraine seems to have taken a modest turn in Ukraine’s favor … [O]ne sign is … Putin’s new threats and his scramble for arms from his own client states. Russia expected its February blitzkrieg to end in … quick victory, but … has bogged down … Ukraine is now pressing a[] [southern] offensive … aimed at busting […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Where Does the Russia-North Korea Relationship Stand?” – Council on Foreign Relations/ Scott A. Snyder

North Korea Map and Flag, adapted from .gov image

“… Kim desperately needed to replace the narrative of weakness after failing to make a widely expected deal with the United States at the Hanoi summit with a narrative of strength, both domestically and internationally. Last week’s summit with Putin allowed Kim to show stature internationally and discuss alternatives to the U.S.-proposed big deal on denuclearization. But he failed to […]

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With North Korea, Russia Knows It Can Only Play Second Fiddle to China and US

North Korea Map and Flag, adapted from .gov image

(Russia Matters – russiamatters.org – Simon Saradzhyan – April 25, 2019 – russiamatters.org/blog/north-korea-russia-knows-it-can-only-play-second-fiddle-china-and-us) This week’s summit between Vladimir Putin and Kim Jong Un—the first between the Russian and North Korean leaders—has proved to be as underwhelming as expected. While the two spent twice as much time talking face-to-face as had been planned, they neither announced any major agreements nor appeared […]

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RUSSIALINK TRANSCRIPT: “[Putin] News conference following Russian-North Korean talks” – KremlinRu

North Korea Map and Flag, adapted from .gov image

(Kremlin.ru – April 25, 2019 – en.kremlin.ru/events/president/transcripts/60370) Following his talks with Chairman of the State Affairs Commission of the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea Kim Jong-un, Vladimir Putin answered media questions. President of Russia Vladimir Putin: Good afternoon, I suggest that we go straight to questions and answers. I will try to answer your questions. Go ahead, please. Question: Mr […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “‘These Are Our Friends’; Russians Push to Preserve North Korea Ties; Some Russian business owners and ethnic Koreans are braving U.S. ire to maintain business ties with Pyongyang” – Wall Street Journal/ Anatoly Kurmanaev, Thomas Grove, Ksenia Barakovskaya, Lyubov Barabashova, Ian Talley

North Korea Map and Flag, adapted from .gov image

“… some 13,000 North Korean workers [were] left in Russia by October …. Some Western diplomats view Moscow’s implementation of … sanctions as overly liberal. … allowing [Pyongyang] to continue earning foreign currency and sourcing vital supplies in Russia and undermining U.S. attempts to strong-arm the country into giving up [WMD]. … Russian customs data show North Korea imported about […]

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RUSSIALINK: “U.S. has no clear understanding of need to positively respond to Pyongyang’s steps on denuclearization – Russian Foreign Ministry” – Interfax

File Photo of U.S. Embassy Moscow, with Russian Foreign Ministry Building in Distance

MOSCOW. Jan 14 (Interfax) – Washington does not fully realize the need to positively respond to North Korea’s steps in the direction of denuclearization and normalization of relations, a Russian Foreign Ministry official said. “The way the South Korean administration is building its line – step by step, in parallel, by reciprocal steps – is a good example to the […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “U.S., Russia Clash at U.N. as Lavrov Calls for Easing of North Korea Sanctions” – Wall Street Journal/ Jessica Donati (Sept. 28, 2018)

File Photo of UN Building with Flags

“The Trump administration worked to move ahead on its top diplomatic priority – the denuclearization of North Korea – but ran head-on into opposition to its plans from Russia, which called for the easing of United Nations sanctions against Pyongyang. The proposal by Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov at the U.N. Security Council ran directly counter to the U.S. demand […]

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RUSSIALINK: “Putin calls for int’l security guarantees for North Korea supported with involvement of nuclear powers” – Interfax

North Korea Map and Flag, adapted from .gov image

VLADIVOSTOK. Sept 12 (Interfax) – Russian President Vladimir Putin believes that nuclear powers should take part in the discussion of international security guarantees for North Korea. “What kind of guarantees could that be? International. We have such a format as six-nation talks. The international community can give such guarantees, including those supported with the involvement of nuclear powers in these […]

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RUSSIALINK: “Russia supports U.S. efforts on settlement on Korean Peninsula in contacts with N. Korea – Lavrov” – Interfax

North Korea Map and Flag, adapted from .gov image

MOSCOW. July 14 (Interfax) – Russia supports the efforts made by U.S. President Donald Trump and U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo on settling the situation on the Korean Peninsula and supports them in its contacts with North Korea and other countries of the region, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said. “It has been a very deep crisis with very […]

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RUSSIALINK: “State Duma doesn’t expect instant results from U.S.-N. Korean summit, stands for six-party talks” – Interfax

Russian State Duma Building file photo

MOSCOW. June 12 (Interfax) – The meeting between U.S. President Donald Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un is a historical event, but it would not give instant results, to that end negotiations should move to the six-party format, Alexei Chepa, the deputy chair of the State Duma International Affairs Committee, told Interfax on Tuesday. “It is a historical […]

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RUSSIALINK: “Pyongyang says Kim, Lavrov agree on Russia-N. Korea summit” – Interfax

North Korea Map and Flag, adapted from .gov image

MOSCOW. June 1 (Interfax) – North Korean leader Kim Jong Un and Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov agreed at their meeting on Pyongyang to hold a bilateral summit in 2018, the North Korean state-run news agency KCNA said in a statement on Friday. Kim “warmly welcomed the visit of Foreign Minister Lavrov and his party to the DPRK and had […]

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RUSSIALINK: “Differing approaches to Korea crisis may jeopardize N. Korea-U.S. summit – Kosachyov” – Interfax

North Korea Map and Flag, adapted from .gov image

MOSCOW. May 16 (Interfax) – The differing approaches of Washington and Pyongyang to the settlement process on the Korean Peninsula and the bilateral summit may jeopardize the very fact of the summit and its outcome, Federation Council Foreign Affairs Committee Chairman Konstantin Kosachyov said on Facebook. “The problems that emerged shortly before the pivotal meeting between the U.S. and North […]

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Interfax: Russia starts sending North Korean labor migrants back home – ambassador in Pyongyang

North Korea Map and Flag, adapted from .gov image

NEW YORK. Feb 7 (Interfax) – Russia has started sending North Korean labor migrants home consistent with the latest resolution of the UN Security Council, Russian Ambassador in Pyongyang Alexander Matsegora told the Russian press in New York. “That would affect the Russian economy, especially the Far East, rather seriously. […] Yet we are strictly and unwaveringly complying with the […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Nuclear Dangers from North Korea: Managing the Risks to the U.S. and Russia” – RussiaMatters/ Joshua H. Pollack

North Korea Map and Flag, adapted from .gov image

“Among the most disturbing aspects of the North Korean nuclear problem today is the lack of a common perspective between Washington and Moscow. More than any other government, Russian authorities have been reluctant to acknowledge the emergence of a genuine nuclear and missile threat from North Korea to the United States. This perceptual gap is more than a mere irritant. […]

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Moscow Ponders Trump’s Fire and Fury

North Korea Map and Flag, adapted from .gov image

(Kennan Institute – wilsoncenter.org/program/kennan-institute – MAXIM TRUDOLYUBOV – August 11, 2017) Maxim Trudolyubov, Senior Fellow with the Kennan Institute and editor-at-large with Vedomosti, has been following Russian economy and politics since the late 1990s. He has served as an opinion page editor for Vedomosti and editor and correspondent for the newspaper Kapital. As North Korea’s nuclear missile program advances, U.S. […]

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The Key to North Korea Is Russia; Unfortunately, the idea of a grand bargain with Russia is less popular in Washington than ever before.

North Korea Map and Flag, adapted from .gov image

(Bloomberg – bloomberg.com – Leonid Bershidsky – May 18, 2017) Leonid Bershidsky is a Bloomberg View columnist. He was the founding editor of the Russian business daily Vedomosti and founded the opinion website Slon.ru. The idea of a grand bargain between the U.S. and Russia is less popular in Washington than ever before. And yet one of the biggest foreign […]

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NEWSWATCH: “Have we forgotten the Cold War? Nuclear threat more real than ever” – The Hill/ William Perry

Russian Mobile ICBM Parade File Photo

“… relations between the United States and #Russia are as hostile as they were during the #ColdWar. Russia has dropped its long-term policy of ‘No First Use’ of #nuclear weapons and is rebuilding its nuclear arsenal. It is threatening its neighbors with these deadly weapons and indirectly threatening the U.S. Responding to this challenge, the U.S. has begun rebuilding its […]

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“Crises in the Second Nuclear Age” – Stephen J. Cimbala, Paul Bracken

Russian Mobile ICBM Parade File Photo

Subject: Crises in the Second Nuclear Age Date: Fri, 21 Apr 2017 From: STEPHEN CIMBALA <sjc2@psu.edu> Crises in the Second Nuclear Age By Stephen J. Cimbala and Paul Bracken Stephen J. Cimbala is Professor of Political Science at Penn State Brandywine. Paul Bracken is Professor of Management and Professor of Political Science at Yale University. Nuclear weapons coincided with the […]

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RIA Novosti: Putin Signs Decree to Implement Sanctions Against North Korea

North Korea Map and Flag

MOSCOW, December 2 (RIA Novosti) ­ Russian President Vladimir Putin has signed a decree to implement UN Security Council sanctions against North Korea, the government’s legal information website said Monday. All North Korean ships must now consent to an inspection before being allowed to enter a Russian port. Russian state and commercial organizations are also forbidden from helping North Korea […]

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The Korean factor in Moscow’s foreign policy

North Korea Map and Flag

(Russia Beyond the Headlines – rbth.ru – Andrei Ilyashenko, special to RBTH – November 17, 2013) The author is a political analyst for the Voice of Russia Radio. Russia’s relations with South and North Korean are critical to the country’s stability and interests. Vladimir Putin had two reasons to visit Seoul on November 12 and 13: security and security. And […]

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Putin Builds North Korea Rail to Circumvent Suez Canal

North Korea Map and Flag

(Bloomberg – bloomberg.com – Ekaterina Shatalova and Nicholas Brautlecht – October 15, 2013) Vladimir Putin is inching closer to his goal of turning Russia into a major transit route for trade between eastern Asia and Europe by prying open North Korea, a nuclear-capable dictatorship isolated for half a century. Russia last month completed the first land link that North Korea’s […]

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G8 leaders tackle taxes, Syria, North Korea and terrorism

File Photo of G8 Heads of State Outdoors in 2013

(Russia Beyond the Headlines – rbth.ru – Yuri Paniyev, special to RBTH – June 18, 2013) With the G8 summit in full swing in Northern Ireland, the world’s leaders try to tackle financial and international challenges including tax evasion, the Middle East stand-off, the Syrian crisis and the North Korea nuclear problem. G8 leaders began their two-day summit at the […]

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Russian pundits: Still calm about Korea?

North Korea Map and Flag

(Russia Beyond the Headlines –  www.rbth.ru – Ekaterina Zabrovskaya, Yelena Kim, RBTH – April 10, 2013) Regardles of the fact that Russian pundits are concerned by growing tensions on the Korean Peninsula, most argue that a full-scale war will not break out. Although the North Korean Ministry of Foreign Affairs has advised diplomatic missions to leave the country by April […]

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Russia Seen as Powerless to Influence Pyongyang

North Korea Map and Flag

(Moscow Times – themoscowtimes.com – Jonathan Earle – April 10, 2013) The White House has urged Moscow to do more to restrain saber-rattling North Korea, but despite historically strong ties with its nuclear-armed neighbor, Russia does not have special influence that could help defuse growing tensions on the Korean Peninsula, experts said Tuesday. “Russia doesn’t have any exclusive ways to […]

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Lavrov accuses N. Korea of blatantly violating UN Security Council resolutions

North Korea Map and Flag

(Interfax – MOSCOW, April 10, 2013) Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov has accused North Korea of blatantly violating a UN Security Council resolution and warned that Moscow will consistently seek to calm the situation down. “Certainly, it is unacceptable when a state – in this particular case the DPRK, a UN member – openly and blatantly violates a UN Security […]

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