Russia in Review, March 31-April 7, 2023 – 5 Things to Know

File Photo of Red Square, Kremlin, Environs, adapted from image at state.gov

(Russia Matters – russiamatters.org) Three days of Xi’s talks with Macron and von der Leyen reaffirmed their rhetorical commitment to peace in Ukraine and an end to nuclear saber-rattling, but produced no concrete measures for attaining either. A readout of the trilateral talks in Beijing by the Chinese MFA said Xi told his two guests that a ceasefire in Ukraine […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “The Case for a Security Guarantee for Ukraine” – Foreign Affairs

Maidan Square in Kiev, Ukraine

“How to Protect the Country — Without NATO Membership” “Ukraine must be brought into the democratic world and strengthened … [to] resist future Russian aggression. It also needs some type of Western military protection. But policymakers need to think more broadly about Russia’s role in the postwar order …. The nation needs a constructive vision …. If after the war […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “We’re One Step Closer to Putin’s Crimea Nightmare” – The Daily Beast

Map of Ukraine, Including Crimea, and Neighbors, Including Russia

“Senior U.S. officials privately harbor concerns but Western leaders have started warming to the idea that Ukraine should kick Russia out of Crimea, despite the nuclear threats.” “… Western leaders have started warming to the idea that Ukraine can take back Crimea in spite of Russian nuclear threats, Tamila Tasheva, the Ukrainian government official in charge of Crimea, told The […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Ukraine’s allies are set to discuss the dwindling ammunition supply” – New York Times

File photo of 88mm howitzers and troops in field, with shell in mid-flight, adapted from image at defense.gov

“… The pace at which both sides have burned through ammunition has run up against global production capacity and export controls that restrict arms sold to one country from being transferred to another. Kyiv’s need for artillery has become more acute as it doubles down on fighting in Bakhmut, where it has signaled its willingness to tolerate heavy losses in […]

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Excerpt from the “Annual Threat Assessment of the U.S. Intelligence Community”

File Photo of Red Square, Kremlin, Environs, adapted from image at state.gov

[click here for PDF of entire Annual Threat Assessment, declassified version] [excerpt on Russia follows]   Russia REGIONAL AND GLOBAL OBJECTIVES AND ACTIVITIES Russia’s unprovoked war of aggression against Ukraine is a tectonic event that is reshaping Russia’s relationships with the West and China, and more broadly in ways that are unfolding and remain highly uncertain. Escalation of the conflict […]

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Russia Analytical Report, Feb. 27-March 6, 2023 – 4 Ideas to Explore

File Photo of Red Square, Kremlin, Environs, adapted from image at state.gov

(Russia Matters – russiamatters.org) U.S. public’s support for aiding Ukraine is decreasing as Americans’ war weariness increases with time, according to veteran journalist Peter Baker’s news analysis in NYT. Overall, support has fallen from 60% last May to 48% now, according to AP/NORC surveys. The decline is more pronounced among Republican respondents, which shows in statements  by GOP presidential contenders. […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Ukraine Under Pressure to Launch Counteroffensive That Will Appease NATO” – Newsweek

Map of Ukraine, Including Crimea, and Neighbors, Including Russia

“… As Kyiv estimates that nearly 150,000 Russian soldiers have died since the war’s inception, Ukrainian forces may ‘strategically pull back’ from Bakhmut to avoid additional casualties of their own in what has become one of the bloodiest battles since July. … NATO officials expressed concern … that stockpiles could quickly diminish if the West doesn’t expand its industrial repertoire, […]

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Russia in Review, Feb. 17-24, 2023 – 5 Things to Know

File Photo of Red Square, Kremlin, Environs, adapted from image at state.gov

(Russia Matters – russiamatters.org) China’s “peace plan” for Ukraine, vague on how peace can be attained, sends clear signals that Beijing’s support for Moscow is neither univocal nor limitless. The very first of the plan’s 12 points declares, in a clear acknowledgement of the Ukrainian state’s fundamental rights, that the “sovereignty, independence and territorial integrity of all countries must be […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Why the War Will Continue: One year in, the war in Ukraine shows no sign of ending.” – Council on Foreign Relations/ Richard Haass

Map of Ukraine, Including Crimea, and Neighbors, Including Russia

“… Putin’s calculation that the benefits of invading would dwarf the costs became a formula for disaster. Putin now finds himself playing for time. Unable to defeat Ukraine’s military, he is attacking economic and civilian targets, hoping to break the will of Ukrainians. … [and perhaps hoping that] European governments … [and] the U.S.[] rethink the costs of supporting Ukraine. […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Ukraine Marks Successes, Mourns Losses as War Enters Second Year” – WSJ

Map of Ukraine, Including Crimea, and Neighbors, Including Russia

“Zelensky pledges to pursue victory against Russia this year as Western weapons flow to Ukraine.” “… Ukraine has lost tens of thousands of civilians and soldiers … and many of its cities have been reduced to rubble …. Russia … [reportedly] has suffered some 200,000 military casualties in Ukraine .. [and] currently controls just under 18% of Ukrainian territory, including […]

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VIDEO: JRL NEWSWATCH: “Biden vows to ‘defend literally every inch of NATO’ territory: ‘Article 5 is a sacred commitment'” – Fox

NATO OTAN logo, adapted from image featured at usembassy.gov

“President Biden said that countering Russia is not just about protecting Ukraine, but freedom itself” “… Biden addressed the group of European nations known as the Bucharest Nine (B9) on Wednesday, stressing the need to stand up to Russian aggression and emphasizing the United States’ commitment to NATO allies. Biden’s appearance at the B9 meeting in Warsaw came as part […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Why a new Cold War with Russia isn’t the worst outcome” – Washington Post

Map of Ukraine, Including Crimea, and Neighbors, Including Russia

“… Ukrainians will never give up their goal of liberating every inch of Ukrainian territory — nor should they. But as Zelensky and his supporters in the West consider options on the road ahead, they should review the postwar history of West Germany. By building a vibrant free-market democracy within larger European institutions secured by a U.S.-led NATO, West Germany […]

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Russia Analytical Report, Feb. 6-13, 2023 – 5 Ideas to Explore

File Photo of Red Square, Kremlin, Environs, adapted from image at state.gov

(Russia Matters – russiamatters.org) The Russian military has learned from its mistakes in Ukraine and now stands a chance to “snatch a diminished variant of victory from the jaws of defeat,” according to Dara Massicot of RAND. That victory would entail consolidating Russia’s control over its occupied holdings in Ukraine’s south and east, but Moscow “is unlikely to achieve its […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Ukraine ‘using more munitions than West can supply'” – The Telegraph (UK)

Map of Ukraine, Including Crimea, and Neighbors, Including Russia

“Ukraine is expending more ammunition than Western governments can supply … NATO’s top official has said … warn[ing] [that NATO] is in an arms race against Russia. … [He also] said on Monday Russia had already started its long-expected offensive in eastern Ukraine …. Ukraine’s defence minister, Oleksii Reznikov, … will demand [NATO] significantly step up donations of artillery shells […]

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Russia in Review, Feb. 3-10, 2023 – 6 Things to Know

File Photo of Red Square, Kremlin, Environs, adapted from image at state.gov

(Russia Matters – russiamatters.org) Warnings by Ukrainian officials of a coming Russian offensive have multiplied in the past few days. A Ukraine military intelligence official has told the Kyiv Post that the Russian attack is expected to come around Feb. 24, while an adviser to the Ukrainian military told FT that the offensive could come within 10 days. Better trained and equipped […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “When will the war in Ukraine end? Experts offer their predictions” – Defense News

Map of Ukraine, Including Crimea, and Neighbors, Including Russia

“… [Russia’s] war [in Ukraine reportedly] will be expensive, cost lives and likely last at least a few years — or even become interminable. It will tax … American and European defense industries, especially when it comes to munitions, and could cause economic ruin in Russia. All this while the possibility of nuclear escalation remains. … [W]inning [reportedly] will depend […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “How Russia Decides to Go Nuclear; Deciphering the Way Moscow Handles Its Ultimate Weapon” – Foreign Affairs/ Kristin Ven Bruusgaard

Iskander Missile with Launch file photo

“… The most perilous moment will be when Ukraine is on the cusp of victory, and Putin feels he can salvage his invasion only through an unprecedented escalation. … [A]nother perilous moment will come if Russian military or political leaders decide … direct military confrontation with NATO is inevitable. … Western policymakers should actively seek to mitigate [that scenario if […]

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Russia Analytical Report, Jan. 23-30, 2023 – 4 Ideas to Explore

File Photo of Red Square, Kremlin, Environs, adapted from image at state.gov

(Russia Matters – russiamatter.org – Jan. 30, 2023) No Russian government would ever accept Ukrainian independence, George Kennan warned in a 1948 paper. The United States should not encourage Ukraine’s separation from Russia, but if it were to occur, Washington should not interfere even though an independent Ukraine would be “challenged eventually from the Russian side,” according to Kennan’s paper, […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “The Last Taboo: Germany’s Leopard Tanks Are a Game Changer with Significant Risks” – Der Spiegel

File Photo of Leopard Tank Preparing to Ford a River, adapted from Defense.gov image with photo credit to Army Sgt. Garrett Ty Whitfield

“With the delivery of Leopard battle tanks from Germany, the Ukraine war is entering into a new and dangerous phase. Olaf Scholz must … clean up the political damage … hold his country together and find a path … to end the conflict. … NATO has … stayed out of the war, but … wants to be prepared. … [NATO] […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Russia must be punished for its war crimes” – The Hill/ Walter C. Clemens, Jr.

File Photos of Law Books and Gavel, adapted from image at fjc.gov

“Reports that Russian forces have systematically looted Ukrainian museums drives home the reality that … Putin’s policies mirror those of … Hitler. …. Like rape, torture and murder, some of those actions could be blamed on lack of direction from military leaders, but repeated missile attacks on civilian dwellings and infrastructure can only be due to high-level strategic planning. … […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Germany to Send Tanks to Ukraine, With U.S. Set to Follow; Berlin says it and allies will quickly provide two battalions of Leopard tanks for Ukraine” – Wall Street Journal/ Bojan Pancevski, Bertrand Benoit

File Photo of Leopard Tank Preparing to Ford a River, adapted from Defense.gov image with photo credit to Army Sgt. Garrett Ty Whitfield

“Germany will send 14 of its modern Leopard main battle tanks to Ukraine as part of a coordinated push with the U.S. and other allies to escalate their support for Kyiv ahead of an expected Russian offensive …. follow[ing] … intense diplomacy between Berlin and Washington, which is expected to announce a donation of up to 50 U.S.-made Abrams M1 […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Europe Needs a Strategy for Russia After Putin; Competing ideas about the end state of the war are striving for dominance” – Foreign Policy/ Bart M. J. Szewczyk

Map of Europe, adapted from image at loc.gov

“As defense ministers of NATO and other nations met … and tried to resolve … divisions over supplying Ukraine with the heavy weapons it needs to drive Russian forces out of its territory … there are very different visions of the end state of the war and the region’s future. Among European countries, especially, there are stark differences … [with] […]

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Kissinger’s Post-War Visions Puts Ukraine in NATO, but Also Has an ‘Opening to Russia’

Map of Ukraine, Including Crimea, and Neighbors, Including Russia

(Russia Matters – russiamatters.org – RM Staff – Jan. 18, 2023) Speaking at the World Economic Forum via Zoom on Jan. 17, Henry Kissinger said the U.S. should continue and, if necessary, even intensify its military support for Ukraine “until the ceasefire lines are reached or accepted.” The 99-year-old American statesman believes “an end of fighting” can occur “when the […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “NATO Could Take Out Russia in 3 Days: Congressman” – Newsweek

NATO Meeting File Photo

“Representative Adam Kinzinger said on Monday that [NATO] could take out Russia in only three days. … Putin has long taken issue with NATO … raising concerns about the West’s expanding sphere of influence …. [s]pecifically … oppos[ing] … Ukraine joining …. Experts have raised concern the Russia-Ukraine war could escalate into a larger conflict with NATO …. Both Russia […]

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7 Ideas to Explore – Russia Analytical Report, Dec. 12-19, 2022

File Photo of Red Square, Kremlin, Environs, adapted from image at state.gov

(Russia Matters – russiamatters.org – Dec. 19, 2022) The time has come to build “a new structure toward achieving peace through negotiation,” according to Kissinger. “The goal of a peace process [for Ukraine] would be twofold: to confirm the freedom of Ukraine and to define a new international structure” in which “Russia should find a place,” Kissinger writes in The […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “U.S. Goal in Ukraine: Drive Russians Back to Pre-Invasion Lines, Blinken Says” – WSJ

Map of Ukraine, Including Crimea, and Neighbors, Including Russia

“Kyiv must decide itself later whether to try to reclaim Crimea and Donbas” “The U.S. priority is helping Kyiv drive Russian forces out of Ukrainian territory … seized since the full-scale invasion in February … leaving to Kyiv a future decision on whether to press the fight on to … Russian-occupied Crimea[] … and eastern Donbas …. Though Ukrainian forces […]

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Russia Analytical Report, Nov. 28-Dec. 5, 2022: 4 Ideas to Explore

File Photo of Red Square, Kremlin, Environs, adapted from image at state.gov

(Russia Matters – russiamatters.org – Dec. 5, 2022) While rightly helping Ukraine to defend itself, the Pentagon and weapons contractors should not be allowed to exploit the crisis to expand the U.S. arms industry “in ways that go far beyond what is needed to help Ukraine in its current conflict,” according to William Hartung of the Quincy Institute for Responsible […]

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Russia Analytical Report, Nov. 21-28, 2022: 6 Ideas to Explore

File Photo of Red Square, Kremlin, Environs, adapted from image at state.gov

(Russia Matters – russiamatters.org – Nov. 28, 2022) Key U.S. officials have begun to wonder whether “the U.S. has already reaped all the advantages the Ukraine war has to offer,” according to Hal Brands of Johns Hopkins University. “As time passes, the cost may get higher [for the U.S.]—in distraction from other regions, in scarce munitions consumed, in vulnerability to […]

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Can Lessons From Cuban Missile Crisis Help Stave Off U.S.-Russia Confrontation?

Map of Ranges of Soviet Missiles on Cuba

(Russia Matters – russiamatters.org – Yana Demeshko, Natasha Yefimova-Trilling – Oct. 19, 2022) Yana Demeshko is a graduate student at UCLA and a student associate with Russia Matters. Natasha Yefimova-Trilling is the editor of Russia Matters. The Cuban missile crisis, which nudged the world to the brink of nuclear disaster 60 years ago this month, has often served as a […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Why NATO Needs to Plan for Nuclear War” – Foreign Policy

NATO Meeting File Photo

“As the alliance meets this week, leaders must discuss how they will react if Russia uses weapons of mass destruction.” “NATO defense ministers will gather this week for a ministerial meeting, but one topic of discussion will be anything but routine: the risk that … Putin might use nuclear weapons in Europe. The recent massive, disproportionate missile attacks launched against […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Defending the skies: How the West is helping Ukraine beat Russia’s missiles; and why such help has been so slow in coming” – The Economist

BUK SAM file photo adapted from image at army.mil

“… It was the second consecutive day of large-scale Russian missile attacks on civilian neighbourhoods and infrastructure, though … not nearly as serious as the first. On October 10th Russia launched 83 missiles at cities across Ukraine, killing at least 19 …. Ukraine said it had shot down 43 of those, but … still relies mainly on Soviet-era … systems […]

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JRL NEWSLINK: “Does War in Ukraine Impact Vital U.S. Interests?” – Russia Matters

File Photo of Joe Biden at Podium with U.S. Seal, With Ukrainian and U.S. Flags in Background

In the more than six months following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the U.S. and its allies have worked with surprising cohesion and efficiency to pass multiple rounds of sanctions on Moscow and ramp up military, economic and humanitarian aid for Kyiv. Still, conspicuously absent from these efforts are Western military boots on the ground. Although 40,000 troops under direct NATO […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Putin’s Bombers Could Devastate Ukraine But He’s Holding Back. Here’s Why” – Newsweek

European Portion of Commonwealth of Independent States

“… U.S. observers agree[] that Putin and his generals overestimated their own military prowess while grossly underestimating Ukraine’s defenses. … [Meanwhile,] Russia, [a] DIA analyst [suggests], has … been careful not to cause escalation onto Belorussian or Russian territory, or to provoke NATO. Despite operating from Belarus, Russian ground and air operations have mostly been confined to the southeastern portion […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Russian visa issue” – Anders Åslund

EU Map adapted from cia.gov image

(Anders Åslund Twitter – twitter @anders_aslund – Aug. 16, 2022 “I feel deeply disturbed by the agitation to refuse all Russians visa to the EU because most Russians support Putin’s war in Ukraine. Hundreds of thousands of liberal Russians who oppose the war have fled Russia. They must not be punished! Instead, the EU should interview all the Russian applicants for […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Playing With Fire in Ukraine; The Underappreciated Risks of Catastrophic Escalation” – Foreign Affairs/ John J. Mearsheimer

Map of Ukraine, Including Crimea, and Neighbors, Including Russia

“Western policymakers appear to have reached a consensus … [that the] Ukraine … conflict will settle into a prolonged stalemate, and eventually … a peace agreement … favor[ing] the United States … NATO allies … [and] Ukraine. … Few imagine … U.S. forces … directly involved … or … Russia[n] … use [of] nuclear weapons. … Although disastrous escalation may […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “The U.S. Is Afraid of Losing in Ukraine — or Winning; Russia’s war is forcing a cornered Putin regime to bet on red lines it can’t afford to enforce.” – WSJ

Map of Ukraine, Including Crimea, and Neighbors, Including Russia

“… NATO … [with] a collective GDP 25 times … Russia’s[] is … massively superior to Russia [in terms of conventional military strength] …. Thanks to [Putin’s] expensively failed war, he … knows he has less and less … to counter a Western intervention except the threat of nuclear armageddon, which isn’t what [his] … billionaire [supporters]… signed up for. […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “What Putin Fights For” – Andrew Doris, Thomas Graham/ Survival (IISS)

Vladimir Putin file photo, adapted from screenshot of video at shareamerica.gov

“Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has reignited debate over the role of NATO expansion …. Robert Person and Michael McFaul dismiss Russian President Vladimir Putin’s NATO concerns as a ‘fiction,’ arguing that it was actually the expansion of democracy that threatened his autocratic regime. … Democracy and NATO expansion were not separate issues for Putin and the Russian elite, but mutually […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Russian Military Forecasting and Analysis: The Military-Political Situation and Military Potential in Strategic Planning” – RAND

European Portion of Commonwealth of Independent States

[scroll down for embedded 181-page PDF] … Given the large military potential imbalance between the two sides, the continued cohesion of … NATO … will likely force Russia to resolve political grievances without … the use of force against NATO. NATO cohesion creates at least three operational problems for Russia. First, [NATO’s combined] preponderance of military potential that could prove […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “After the war: AMEURUS; We need to be thinking now about ensuring Russia doesn’t form a power bloc with China in the long term — and even about what may appear now to be an unthinkable alliance” – Politico.eu

European Portion of Commonwealth of Independent States

“… Putin’s geopolitical megalomania and rule of fear was clearly inspired by former absolutist regimes. … [W]hat we’re seeing now is rudimentary proof that absolutism is no longer tolerated …. [T]he chances that Russia will, after this self-inflicted humiliation, embark on a better, more liberal path aren’t bad at all — historically speaking. Two major military defeats triggered modernization in […]

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JRL NEWSBLOG: “Why Joe Biden and Volodymyr Zelensky Won’t Say Ukraine Is Winning the War” – Newsweek

Map of Ukraine, Including Crimea, and Neighbors, Including Russia

“… Russia had lots of guns and materiel but … proved to be … poorly led, badly trained. … [S]carcely anyone wants to say that Russia has lost. … Zelensky, desperate for external support and more guns, motivator of the people and rouser of the troops, has to … [avoid allowing] all of the urgency and attention [to] dissipate. … […]

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Clues From Views: Russia’s National Security Chief Says Poland Preparing to Seize Land in Ukraine, Points Finger at ‘Selfish’ West

European Portion of Commonwealth of Independent States

(Russia Matters – russiamatters.org – RM Staff – June 2, 2022) This post is part of a new “Clues from Russian Views” series in our blog and analysis sections. In it, we share what newsmakers in/from Russia are saying about Russia-related issues that impact key U.S. national interests so that RM readers can glean clues about their thinking and/or messaging.The […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Russia warns West: Don’t test our patience” – Reuters/ Guy Faulconbridge

European Portion of Commonwealth of Independent States

“Russia … warned the West that there would be a tough military response to any further attack on Russian territory, accusing the United States and its key allies of undermining European security by openly inciting Ukraine to assault Russia. Russia’s Feb. 24 invasion of Ukraine has killed thousands … displaced millions more and raised fears of the most serious confrontation […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “What Does the West Want in Ukraine? Defining Success—Before It’s Too Late” – Foreign Affairs

European Portion of Commonwealth of Independent States

“… All this points to a long war. … mostly in Ukraine’s east and south …. The elements of a strategy for a long-term, open-ended war …: provide Ukraine with … weapons, ammunition, training, and intelligence … to defend itself …; make sure … NATO remains strong enough to discourage Russia from escalating the conflict or … [blocking Ukrainian] supplies […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “The Secret of Ukraine’s Military Success: Years of NATO Training” – WSJ

NATO Meeting file photo

“Soldiers, plus military brass and overseers in parliament, have been transformed from a rigid Soviet-style force into a modern army that thinks on the move.” “… [There has been] a little-publicized effort by [NATO] countries … that transformed Ukraine’s military up and down the ranks, from foot soldiers to the defense ministry to overseers in parliament. It is one big […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “U.S., allies plan for long-term isolation of Russia” – Washington Post

File Photo of Kremlin Tower, St. Basil's, Red Square at Night

“A new strategy would mark a return to containment after years of seeking cooperation and coexistence with Moscow.” “… At NATO and the [EU] … and at the State Department … Pentagon and allied ministries, blueprints are being drawn up … [for] new policies across virtually every aspect of the West’s posture toward Moscow, from defense and finance to trade […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “NATO Intervention in Ukraine Won’t Spark World War III” – Foreign Policy

File Photo of F-22 Fighter and Ground Crew

“A Western aversion to casualties and fears of Russian nuclear use are impeding NATO intervention against a vastly inferior opponent.” “… Russia’s indiscriminate attacks against Ukrainian civilians … bombing hospitals and schools … [and] us[ing] of horrific weapons, such as cluster bombs and white phosphorus [] should drive the West to reevaluate … and take a more active role … […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Russia no longer requesting Ukraine be ‘denazified’ as part of ceasefire talks; Requests include Kyiv dropping NATO pursuit in exchange for security guarantees and EU membership” – Financial Times

EU Map adapted from cia.gov image

“Russia [reportedly] is no longer requesting Ukraine be ‘denazified’ and is prepared to let Kyiv join the EU if it remains militarily non-aligned …. Russia and Ukraine] [reportedly] are discussing a pause in hostilities as part of a possible deal that would involve Ukraine abandoning its drive for NATO membership in exchange for security guarantees and the prospect of joining […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “Is the West deceiving itself about Russia’s ‘defeat’ in Ukraine?” – The Spectator (UK)

Map of Ukraine, Including Crimea, and Neighbors, Including Russia

“… [T]he embarrassing underperformance of the Russian military in Ukraine and the bite of Western sanctions suggest that Putin is no genius mastermind strategist but a risk taker who has bitten off more than he can chew. … [T]he West has also made a dangerous gamble of its own: expecting that it can stay out of the war and also […]

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JRL NEWSWATCH: “The elements of a peace deal in Ukraine are clear — but the two sides can’t get there yet” – Los Angeles Times

Map of Ukraine, Including Crimea, and Neighbors, Including Russia

“… Russia’s huge but incompetent army has been stymied in its attempts to seize … Kyiv[] and other cities. Ukraine’s defenders have put up a heroic fight, but civilians in besieged towns are suffering a terrible toll. …. Each side thinks it still has a chance to outlast the other. … [Yet] officials from both countries have suggested possible compromises. […]

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